Weekly Report
Dollar Soared as Data Support Fed Hikes, Trade War to Intensify
Economic data, Fed expectations, trade war, Brexit were among the biggest themes last week. Emerging market risks seemed to have abated. Meanwhile, Italy was less of a threat to Eurozone after the government pledged not to blow up the account. Yen and Swiss Franc ended the week as the...
US Trade War Again Dominated, But Everyone Has Their Own Stories
The last week of August was unusually volatile and eventful. It's a week to remember yet it's hard to remember all the details. Almost every major currency got its own stories. Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen ended as the first and third strongest ones on risk aversions. And apparently,...
Dollar in Medium Term Correction after Plunging on Trump and Fed Powell
Yen ended the week broadly lower, as the worst performing one, on return of risk appetite. That came with S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at record highs. Dollar ended as the second weakest one as it's firstly talked down by Trump. Secondly, markets took Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech...
Trade War Back as Main Theme as Turkish Crisis Eased, US and China to Meet
The forex markets turned into consolidative mode last week as Dollar and Yen lost momentum. Turkish currency crisis hit a climax on Monday but worries eased after the government's measures were well taken by investors. The fear of extra sanctions by the US on Turkey caused some jitters. But...
Looking Through the Turkish Currency Crisis, Dollar is Strong Anyway
It was one of those wild week in the financial markets with a number of market moving themes. New Zealand Dollar was the worst performing one after RBNZ made itself clear that interest rate is going to stay low for longer. And the next move could either be up...
Euro as a Casualty as US-China Trade War Turns into Something Bigger
Much volatility was seen in the markets last week with a lot of themes developed. Canadian Dollar ended as the strongest one as strong data boosted chance of August BoC hike. Swiss Franc followed as the second strongest on risk aversion in Europe. Dollar was original set to perform...
CAD, JPY and USD Ended as the Strongest in a Week of Trade Talk and Surging Yields
EU-US trade talk and surge in yields in Japan and the US were the two major themes last week. But it was Canadian Dollar which quietly ended as the strongest one last week. US holding off car tariffs is definitely a positive for Canada and could clear the way...
How Did Stocks, Bonds and Dollar React to Trump’s Attack on Fed?
Dollar was sold off sharply on Friday but, after all, it ended the week only as the third weakest. Sterling was the worst performing one after triple data disappointment, most notably CPI. The once done-deal BoE August rate hike is now back on the table. Australia Dollar ended as...
Dollar Not Ready to Resume Up Trend Yet, Risk Appetite to Continue
Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the weakest ones last week as global stock markets ended higher. There were some jitters in risk sentiments after US announced to move on with tariffs on additional USD 200B in China imports, which come effective as soon as in September. But investors...
US, European and Asian Markets Reacted Differently to Start of US-China Trade War
The global markets reacted rather differently as the US-China trade war formally started while there were only signs of further escalations. Over the week, NASDAQ was a star performer and rose 2.37% to 7510.30. S&P 500 rose in tandem by 1.52% to 2759.82. DOW lagged behind but also managed...
Dollar Rally Halts after a Solid Quarter, Stays Bullish on Trade Tensions
Canadian Dollar ended last week as the strongest one. Strength in oil price, with WTI hitting four-year high was a factor. Solid Canadian GDP and Business Outlook Survey also support a July BoC hike. Euro followed as the second strongest as markets cheered EU agreement on migration during the...
Swiss Franc and Yen Ended as Strongest, Worst of Trade War Yet to Come
The Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen ended last week as the strongest major currencies. Sentiments were hurt deeply by worries on global trade war. Over week, DOW lost -2.03%, S&P 500 lost -0.89%, DAX was down -3.31%, CAC dropped -2.08%, Nikkei lowered by -1.47%. China's Shanghai composite suffered most...
Dollar Surged on Hawkish Fed, Trade War Threat Ignored
Dollar surged broadly last week as Fed policymakers finally made up their mind on hiking a total of four times this year, as reflected in the new projections. The greenback was also helped by ECB monetary policy decision, with traders disappointed on the rate path. The headlines were then...
Markets to Look Through G7 to Fed Hike and ECB Judgement Day
While trade tension between the US and its allies dominated the headlines last week, Euro emerged as the strongest major currency. Receding Eurozone internal political risks was a key factor. German 10 year bund yield hit as high as 0.52, comparing to 0.186 low just two weeks ago, before...
A Look at Why Dollar Failed to Surge on Strong US Job Numbers
It was a roller coaster week with political turmoil in Italy dominated the first half of the week. The formation of the populist Italian government after acceptance by President Sergio Mattarella marked the end of the episode. Trade war then took over as US President Donald Trump decided to...
Yen Surged Again as Italy, Protectionism, Geopolitics and Central Bank Expectations Weighed on Yields
Yen ended as the strongest one last week followed by Swiss Franc. Meanwhile Sterling was the weakest one, followed by Euro, Canadian and then US Dollar. A number of factors were behind such development and they're all inter-related. The most direct one is decline in major European and US...
USD Index Futures Recorded Net Length, First Time since March
As we expected, USD Index futures turned to NET LENGTH of 18 contracts in the week ended May 15. This was driven by increasing pessimism over other major currencies. According to CFTC's Commitments of Traders report, reduction in speculative long positions greatly surpassed that of short for EUR futures,...
Dollar Rally Limited by a Number of Political Factors, Swiss Franc Ended as Strongest
Swiss Franc ended last week as the strongest one, very much thanks to the selloff in EUR/CHF. Uncertainty over the EU policy of the new Italian government sent Euro broadly lower, which ended as the weakest. Despite surge in 10 year yield to 7-year high, Dollar could only extend...
Traders Getting More Bearish on AUD and Less Bullish on GBP
We initiate coverage on speculators' activities on major FX futures. According to CFTC's Commitments of Traders, speculators were bearish (NET SHORT) on CHF, JPY, AUD and CAD in the week ended May 8. Meanwhile, they remained bullish (NET LENGTH) over EUR, GBP and NZD. However, the positive sentiment has...
Dollar Turned into Consolidation Phase, Sterling Survived BoE but Vulnerable to Job Data
Canadian Dollar surged broadly last week following the rally in oil prices. Weaker than expected employment capped the Loonie's gain, but it ended as the strongest still. Sterling survived BoE super Thursday and ended up against all but Canadian. That's a clear indication that markets didn't see BoE announcements...