Weekly Report
More Evidence Still Needed for Dollar’s Strength and Aussie’s Weakness
Dollar and Yen ended as the strongest ones last week as global stock markets tumble. There were concerns over resurgence in coronavirus infections in Europe, with worries over a return to lockdown. Though, the US markets ended not too badly after Friday's rebound. It's still not clear if the...
Yen Surged Again, Dollar Rally Failed, Sterling Pared Losses
Yen ended up broadly as the strongest one last week, extending this month's rebound. Domestically, political uncertainty was cleared with Yoshihide Suga took up the job of Prime Minister, ensuring continuity of Abenomics. Externally, geopolitical risks at the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait heightened while US-China relations deteriorated...
No-Deal Brexit Could Push Sterling Back into Medium Term Down Trend
Sterling's selloff was the most decisive move last week. UK-EU negotiations seemed heading to a dead-end as UK published the so-called internal market bill, which violates part of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. WTO style of trade relationship after Brexit looks more likely than ever. Technical developments in Sterling pairs...
Dollar Down Trend, Stocks Up Trend Still Intact after Roller-Coaster Ride
Markets experienced a roller-coaster ride in the first week of September. S&P 500 and NASDAQ extended record runs and it looked like DOW was on the way for a catch-up. Then technology stocks led a steep selloff towards the end of the week and pulled all indices sharply lower....
Dollar Dived on New Fed Strategy, Aussie Shone ahead of a Key Week
Dollar tumbled sharply, and broadly last week as markets perceive Fed's adoption of average inflation targeting as a dovish move. Nevertheless, selloff were mainly against commodity currencies and, to a lesser extent, Sterling. The greenback ended in range against Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold. Even Gold just gyrated inside...
Euro Tumbled as Optimistic Investors Reassess Outlook, Turning Around?
Euro ended as the worst performing one last week as investors could have started to reassess the economic outlook. As ECB meeting accounts pointed out, recent positive market developments were "not fully backed by economic data". Indeed, they might be based on "overly optimistic expectations" about the Next Generation...
Yields Surged, Gold Corrected, But Dollar Got No Lift
It was a rather mixed week where there were conditions for a Dollar rebound, with surging treasury yield and correction in Gold. Yet, no apparent rally was seen. Yen was sold off generally, partly on coronavirus and recovery optimism. But the Swiss Franc was firm together with Euro.
Strong rally...
Dollar Trying For Rebound after Trump’s Combination Move Against CCP
Dollar was under pressure most of the week on risk-on sentiments. NASDAQ gapped higher and marched to new record highs. Nevertheless, the greenback staged a notable comeback after combination move by the US administration against the Chinese Communist Party, with bans on TikTok and WeChat, as well as sanction...
Yen, Dollar, Aussie, Gold and Stocks in Focuses in a Busy Week
Dollar's selloff extended last week, after rather uneventful Fed meeting. The decline was particularly serious against generally strong European majors. Sterling ended as the strongest one this time, followed by Euro and Swiss Franc. While the greenback was weak, New Zealand and Canadian Dollar were even worse, with the...
Euro Started Medium Term Up Trend With Break of Key Resistance Against Dollar
Euro ended as the strongest one last week as boosted by the agreement on the Next Generation EU recovery fund. It's seen as a landmark deal which would increase cohesion of the EU. The burden on ECB would also be dramatically eased with the fiscal support. Meanwhile, Eurozone PMI...
Euro’s Rally to be Tested by Outcome of EU Summit on Recovery Fund
Euro ended last week as the strongest one, as pushed up by hope of an agreement over EU's post-pandemic recovery fund. The strength was particularly apparent against Swiss Franc and Sterling. Yet, up till the time of writing, there seems to be no consensus reached at the EU summit...
Weekly Report: Coronavirus Drove Markets, Second Wave Concern Offset by Treatment Optimism
Development of coronavirus pandemic was the main driver in rather dull markets last week. Just when it looked like risk-off was back on second wave of infections, markets were saved by news from Gilead Sciences regarding the test results on redmesivir. NASDAQ has extended its record run, helping treasury...
Markets Welcome Solid Economic Data and Ignored Coronavirus Numbers
Markets looked rather indifferent to the resurgence of coronavirus infections. Daily new cases surged to new high above 200k. Total cases broke 11m while deaths is closing in to 530k. But traders and investors couldn't care less. Instead, sentiments were lifted by hope of recovery ahead, with Q3 already...
Risk Reversal Building Up on Coronavirus and US-China Tensions
The conditions for risk reversal continued to build up last week and somewhat intensified. On the one hand, daily new coronavirus cases surged to new high for the world world, as well as for the US. Daily global new deaths were steady and the US death tolls trended down....
Coronavirus Cases Skyrocketed Again, But Risk Seekers Not Giving Up Yet
Just like many governments and central bankers, the markets were torn between the optimism over re-opening of the economic, and the imminent risk of coronavirus second wave. This is reflected in the general strength in Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc last week. Yet, commodity currencies were relatively resilient, as...
Sentiments Took a U-Turn on Fear of Coronavirus Second Wave
The second wave of coronavirus pandemic had finally become a main theme in the markets last week. Or, investors could have just waited for Fed to confirm its done with more easing for moment, and started profit taking. Either way, massive selloff was seen in the stock markets towards...
Investors in Euphoria, Betting on a V-Shaped Recovery
The global financial markets were basically in euphoria last week. Lockdown restrictions continued to be eased. ECB provided more stimulus by expanding the crisis purchase program. Surprised growth in US and Canadian employment in May argue that the worst of coronavirus pandemic is already behind us. More importantly, investors...
Old and New Risks Ignored So Far, Dollar to Decide Reversal or Not Soon
Some old and new global risks, other than coronavirus, have been (re-)emerging in recent weeks. US-China relation is heading another step towards cold war with US President Donald Trump's new set of measures against China announced on Friday. Unrest that started in Minneapolis quickly spread from Los Angeles to Miami...
China’s Diplomatic Tensions Overshadow Global Coronavirus Pandemic Exit Optimism
While Dollar and Yen staged notable rebound towards the end of week, they still ended as the worst performing ones. On the other hand, commodity currencies were the best performers despite paring some of the gains. Markets were lifted by optimism that the world is moving closer to lockdown...
Negative Interest Rate Expectations Drove Markets, Risk Reversal TBC Soon
The topic of negative central bank interest rates was a key driver in the forex markets last week. Dollar ended as the strongest one against a chorus of Fed officials expressed their objection. New Zealand Dollar, on the other hand, ended as the weakest as RBNZ was clearly preparing...