Weekly Report
Yields Surged, Gold Corrected, But Dollar Got No Lift
It was a rather mixed week where there were conditions for a Dollar rebound, with surging treasury yield and correction in Gold. Yet, no apparent rally was seen. Yen was sold off generally, partly on coronavirus and recovery optimism. But the Swiss Franc was firm together with Euro.
Strong rally...
Dollar Trying For Rebound after Trump’s Combination Move Against CCP
Dollar was under pressure most of the week on risk-on sentiments. NASDAQ gapped higher and marched to new record highs. Nevertheless, the greenback staged a notable comeback after combination move by the US administration against the Chinese Communist Party, with bans on TikTok and WeChat, as well as sanction...
Yen, Dollar, Aussie, Gold and Stocks in Focuses in a Busy Week
Dollar's selloff extended last week, after rather uneventful Fed meeting. The decline was particularly serious against generally strong European majors. Sterling ended as the strongest one this time, followed by Euro and Swiss Franc. While the greenback was weak, New Zealand and Canadian Dollar were even worse, with the...
Euro Started Medium Term Up Trend With Break of Key Resistance Against Dollar
Euro ended as the strongest one last week as boosted by the agreement on the Next Generation EU recovery fund. It's seen as a landmark deal which would increase cohesion of the EU. The burden on ECB would also be dramatically eased with the fiscal support. Meanwhile, Eurozone PMI...
Euro’s Rally to be Tested by Outcome of EU Summit on Recovery Fund
Euro ended last week as the strongest one, as pushed up by hope of an agreement over EU's post-pandemic recovery fund. The strength was particularly apparent against Swiss Franc and Sterling. Yet, up till the time of writing, there seems to be no consensus reached at the EU summit...
Weekly Report: Coronavirus Drove Markets, Second Wave Concern Offset by Treatment Optimism
Development of coronavirus pandemic was the main driver in rather dull markets last week. Just when it looked like risk-off was back on second wave of infections, markets were saved by news from Gilead Sciences regarding the test results on redmesivir. NASDAQ has extended its record run, helping treasury...
Markets Welcome Solid Economic Data and Ignored Coronavirus Numbers
Markets looked rather indifferent to the resurgence of coronavirus infections. Daily new cases surged to new high above 200k. Total cases broke 11m while deaths is closing in to 530k. But traders and investors couldn't care less. Instead, sentiments were lifted by hope of recovery ahead, with Q3 already...
Risk Reversal Building Up on Coronavirus and US-China Tensions
The conditions for risk reversal continued to build up last week and somewhat intensified. On the one hand, daily new coronavirus cases surged to new high for the world world, as well as for the US. Daily global new deaths were steady and the US death tolls trended down....
Coronavirus Cases Skyrocketed Again, But Risk Seekers Not Giving Up Yet
Just like many governments and central bankers, the markets were torn between the optimism over re-opening of the economic, and the imminent risk of coronavirus second wave. This is reflected in the general strength in Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc last week. Yet, commodity currencies were relatively resilient, as...
Sentiments Took a U-Turn on Fear of Coronavirus Second Wave
The second wave of coronavirus pandemic had finally become a main theme in the markets last week. Or, investors could have just waited for Fed to confirm its done with more easing for moment, and started profit taking. Either way, massive selloff was seen in the stock markets towards...
Investors in Euphoria, Betting on a V-Shaped Recovery
The global financial markets were basically in euphoria last week. Lockdown restrictions continued to be eased. ECB provided more stimulus by expanding the crisis purchase program. Surprised growth in US and Canadian employment in May argue that the worst of coronavirus pandemic is already behind us. More importantly, investors...
Old and New Risks Ignored So Far, Dollar to Decide Reversal or Not Soon
Some old and new global risks, other than coronavirus, have been (re-)emerging in recent weeks. US-China relation is heading another step towards cold war with US President Donald Trump's new set of measures against China announced on Friday. Unrest that started in Minneapolis quickly spread from Los Angeles to Miami...
China’s Diplomatic Tensions Overshadow Global Coronavirus Pandemic Exit Optimism
While Dollar and Yen staged notable rebound towards the end of week, they still ended as the worst performing ones. On the other hand, commodity currencies were the best performers despite paring some of the gains. Markets were lifted by optimism that the world is moving closer to lockdown...
Negative Interest Rate Expectations Drove Markets, Risk Reversal TBC Soon
The topic of negative central bank interest rates was a key driver in the forex markets last week. Dollar ended as the strongest one against a chorus of Fed officials expressed their objection. New Zealand Dollar, on the other hand, ended as the weakest as RBNZ was clearly preparing...
Risk Rally Inconclusive, Dollar Index and Gold Range Bound
Global stock markets somewhat strengthened last week as most countries continued with their coronavirus lockdown exit plan. Yet, with the exception of NASDAQ, major indices were capped below prior week's high. Tensions between US and China remained a major focus. News flows on the topic were confusing. US Trade...
From Coronavirus Lockdown Exit to New US-China Tariff war
Economic data releases have probably never been that meaningless in history. Traders were not too concerned that the Q1, March or even April data were worse than terrible. Instead, hope of lockdown exit, at least partially, have lifted risk markets for the initial part of the week. Risks of...
Aussie and Yen Ended as Strongest as Conoslidative Markets Remained Indecisive
The unimaginable negative oil price was the biggest head-liner last week. But the impact on other markets were relatively short lived. Canadian Dollar was much bothered for most of the week, but eventually it's just the second worst performing, following Sterling. On the other hand, Australian Dollar ended as...
Yen Ended Higher, Dollar Mixed, Despite Risk Rally
Global stock markets were some what supported by talks of staged exit of coronavirus lockdown. There was optimism that finally a cure for the virus too. Nevertheless, the extended rebound in stocks were not much reflected in the currency markets. Yen ended the week as the strongest one, followed...
Dollar Jumped as Markets Started Q2 With Risk Aversion, But Oil Rebounded
The financial markets didn't start the second quarter with a bang even though coronavirus pandemic carried on. Globally, confirmed cases surged through 1.1m level but that's now more of an indication of the speed of tests. Death toll, on the other hand, remains worrying as it broke 60k handle...
Dollar in Strong Rally as Coronavirus Pandemic Worsened, Key Resistance Levels Broken
The anticipated market stabilization didn't happen last week. Instead, despite massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, stocks around the world still ended sharply lower. Nevertheless, as stocks are showing sign of loss of downside momentum. Treasury yield has somewhat stabilized in range. We'd see that the rock bottom in investor...