Weekly Report
Dollar Rally Jeopardized by Job Data, No Bullish Reversal Yet
After some jitters on Iran tensions, Dollar ended up as the strongest one last week. Strong stocks and steady yields provided some support to the greenback. Fed officials also reaffirmed the base stance to stand pat this year. US and China are on track to sign the phase one...
Yen, Gold and Oil Jumps as Geopolitical Risks Cloud Markets
The financial markets took a roller-coaster ride as 2020 started with a bang. US stocks jumped to new record higher to celebrate new year. But sentiments took a great turn after abrupt escalation in Middle-East tensions. Safe-haven flows into Gold, Yen and US treasuries came in unison. Oil prices...
Dissatisfied With Tiny US-China Tariff Rollbacks, Risk Appetite Might Struggle to Push Forward
The markets were rocked by three key events last week, UK Election, US-China trade deal and FOMC rate decision. Sterling ended as the strongest one last week as boosted by the Conservative's landslide victory in UK election, removing a large of of Brexit uncertainty. Canadian Dollar followed crude oil...
Trade War, Election, Fed and ECB in a Week of Guaranteed Volatility
It was a rough ride in the financial markets last week. Stocks were initially pressured in concerns over US-China trade negotiations. US President Donald Trump threw the idea that waiting until after 2020 election before closing the phase one deal. Sentiments were additionally weighed down by a string of...
Sterling Jumped on Election and Brexit Hopes, US Stocks Hit Records ahead of Important December
Sterling ended as the strongest one last week as it looks like Conservative is set to have a majority win in the upcoming elections. If materialized, UK is finally heading for an orderly Brexit next January, clearing all uncertainties. On the other hand, Japanese Yen was the weakest one,...
Trump and Xi, Trade Deal and Hong Kong
Market sentiments turned generally more cautious last week on renewed uncertainties over US-China trade negotiations. Yen ended as the strongest one on weakness in stocks and treasury yields. New Zealand Dollar was the second strongest, extending prior week's rebound. Dollar was the third strongest helped by late buying. Meanwhile,...
AUD/NZD Ended as Top Mover after a Week of Parallel Universes
The financial markets were like in parallel universes last week. On the one hand, US stocks were boosted by trade optimism as the three major indices ended at record highs. On the other hand, Hong Kong stocks led Asian markets lower as unrest in the city continued, with no...
Trade Optimism Boosted Stocks, Yields, & Dollar
Trade optimism was the main theme driving the financial markets last week. Investors seemed to be convinced that US and China are close to signing trade agreement phase one, even though it's unsure when and where yet after the APEC summit in Chile was cancelled. Additionally, there were increasing...
Fed, BoC and RBA Expectations Drove USD, CAD and AUD
With US-China on track to phase one trade deal, and UK preparing for December election, focus turned back to economic data and central banks last week. In particular, Canadian Dollar ended as the worst performing after BoC's surprise dovish turn, which opened the door for rate cut. Dollar followed...
Dollar and Loonie Strengthened as USD/CAD Presses 1.3 ahead of Fed and BoC
Canadian and US Dollars ended last week as the strongest ones. It now appears that US and China are on track to complete the easier phase 1 trade deal in November. Optimism lifted stocks as well as oil prices, which indirectly helped the Loonie too. Also, recent developments in...
Sterling Rally in Jeopardy after Johnson’s Defeat, Dollar Selloff Exaggerated
Sterling surged broadly last week after as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a new deal with EU on Brexit. It appeared that UK was on track to leave EU on October 31 in an orderly way. The development also took other European majors higher. However, uncertainty re-surfaced as...
US-China Trade Deal and Brexit Optimism Lifted Sentiments
Global markets were boosted strongly last week as there seemed to be resolution to two major risks finally. UK and Ireland appeared to have found the "pathway" to avoid no-deal Brexit. Meanwhile, US and China agreed an interim trade deal that would avert further tariffs escalation. The improvement in...
Dollar Ended Lower on Recession Fear and Fed Cut Bets, Awaits Trade Talks
Dollar ended last week generally lower, except versus Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. The greenback was pressured as poor economic data raised recessions fears while traders added to bet of Fed cut this month. Though, there is no clear sign of bearish reversal in the greenback yet, except versus...
Sterling and Euro Broadly Pressured, Dollar Mixed Awaiting Trade Talks
Weakness in Sterling and Euro was the main directions in the forex markets last week. Dollar tried to extend recent rally but ended mixed only. Upside of the greenback was limited by persistent trade uncertainties. While commodity currencies ended higher, they have just merely turned into consolidations and pared...
Fed Might Cut Just Once More in Mid-Cycle Adjustment as Sentiments Improved
Threat of US-China trade war escalation receded last week after both sides offered some concessions. Further than that, there is increasing hope of de-escalation of some form as the idea of an "interim" trade deal floated around. Both sides seemed to be communicating well in preparation for the meeting...
Risk Markets Surged on Receding Political and Trade Uncertainties
Risk aversion eased notably further last week as some of the imminent risks receded. New Italian government was sworn in as 5-Star Movement and bitter rival Democratic Party agreement to form a coalition. UK lawmakers passed a bill to force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to delay Brexit if no...
EUR/USD Resumed Down Trend as Dollar Surged after China Backed Down on Tariff Escalations
Dollar ended as the strongest major currency last week, largely thanks to late buying before weekly close. It remains to be proved whether that was due to month end flows. But somewhat receding risk of US-China decoupling and expectations of aggressive Fed cut could have provided some help too....
Sentiments Sank as Abrupt US-China Trade War Escalation Raises Risk of Cold War
Last week started with anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, but ended with shocked escalation of US-China trade war. Risk aversion should continue to dominate the markets this week, as hard-line rhetorics are expected from both sides. Indeed, they look moving away from a September trade...
An Important Week for EUR/USD as Fed and ECB Easing Expectations Built
Euro ended last week as the weakest one as comments from a top ECB official suggested a forceful easing package to be announced in September. Additionally recession fear in Germany sent 10-year bund yield to new record low. New Zealand Dollar followed as the second weakest on dovish RBNZ...
Global Risks Materializing, Stocks and Yields Tumbled, Yen and Franc Surged
US-China trade/currency war, no-deal Brexit, global slowdown and central bank easing were the main themes last week. The perceived risks to global economy were moving closer to materializing. Free fall in Chinese Yuan at the start of the week triggered US in designating China as currency manipulator. New 10%...