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Weekly Report

Dollar Reasserts Dominance on Fed Expectations and Risk Sentiment

Dollar regained its dominance in the currency markets last week, surging ahead despite US Treasury yields struggling to break through resistance levels. Investors continued to adjust their expectations for Fed's monetary policy, increasingly anticipating a slower pace of interest rate cuts with fewer adjustments in the coming year. This...

Dollar at Risk of Extended Correction as Election Volatility Fades

Significant volatility was seen in the global financial markets last week, driven by the highly anticipated US presidential election. Contrary to expectations of a tight contest, Donald Trump secured a comfortable victory over Kamala Harris, with the Republican Party also achieving a "Red Sweep" by taking control of both...

Dollar Dominance Temporarily Halts Pre-Election, Upside Potential Remains

Dollar, which has dominated currency markets in recent weeks, finally eased back last week. But this retreat does not necessarily indicate a reversal of its upward momentum. Instead, the greenback appears to be taking a breather ahead of the impending US presidential election. Closing as the second strongest performer...

Dominant Dollar Breaks Key Resistance Alongside 10-Year Yield

Dollar emerged as the unequivocal winner in the currency markets last week. Both Dollar Index and 10-year US Treasury Yield surged through their respect technically significant 55 W EMA resistance. It remains to be seen whether traders are positioning ahead of the US presidential election results, which are less...

Dollar Extends Winning Streak, Though Momentum Hints at Waning Strength

Dollar continued its reign as the strongest currency for yet another week, bolstered by solidifying expectations around gradual and measured rate cut cycle by Fed. The rate cut from ECB provided some additional tailwind for the greenback. However, momentum behind the Dollar's rise remains tepid. Strong risk-on sentiment, coupled...

Dollar Strengthens with Fed Clarity, China Ambiguity Drags Regional Sentiment

Global financial markets last week were influenced by a combination of clarity and uncertainty. In the US, economic data reinforced expectations of a gradual and measured policy easing path by Fed. Investors embraced the prospect that Fed would not repeat the aggressive 50 bps rate cut implemented in September....

Dollar Rises on Fed Clarity, Oil Jumps on Rising Fears of Wider Middle East War

The financial markets gained much-needed clarity last week as strong US employment data aligned market expectations with Fed’s own monetary policy outlook. The possibility of a 50bps rate cut in November has now vanished, with traders anticipating two more standard 25bps cuts this year, matching Fed's dot plot. This development...

Stimulus and Political Surprise in Asia Drive Market Sentiment

Unexpected developments from Asia significantly influenced global financial markets last week. China's surprise stimulus measures invigorated investor sentiment, leading to substantial gains in Chinese and Hong Kong equities, as well as strengthening Chinese Yuan. This positive shift boosted commodity-linked currencies, with New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar emerging as...

Dollar With Limited Losses After Fed; Yen Slumps; Sterling Soars

Dollar finished last week on the back foot, reacting to Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 bps. While the greenback lost ground to most major rivals, its decline was relatively modest. Notably, Dollar managed to close higher against both Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, and it continued to...

Rumors Eclipse Data in Market Sentiment, Dollar Braces for Downside Risk

The financial markets have been more influenced by speculations than by concrete economic data, as anticipation builds ahead of Fed's interest rate decision on September 18. Recent US economic indicators, including the latest CPI report and the prior week's non-farm payrolls, pointed toward a cautious and modest 25bps rate...

Market Jitters Rise as Indecisive Fed Outlook Sparks Risk Aversion Across Assets

Investors expressed clear dissatisfaction with last week's US non-farm payroll report, not much due to a miss in job growth expectations, but data left the size of the upcoming Fed rate cut unsettled, raising fears that Fed's indecisive stance could worsen the already fragile economic outlook. In response, US...

Rate Cut Hopes Eclipse Recession Concerns, Dollar Tracks Rising Yields

In the final week of August, financial markets delivered unexpected developments that caught many by surprise. Investor sentiment decisively shifted towards a risk-on approach, propelling major indices like DOW and DAX to new record highs. This optimism was largely driven by expectations of forthcoming monetary easing from key central...

Dollar at Risk of Resuming Medium-Term Downtrend as Fed Confirms Rate Cuts Ahead

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole didn't disappoint market participants, as he clearly signaled that the time for easing monetary policy has arrived. This declaration provided a notable boost to US stock markets on Friday, with major indexes ending the week on a positive note....

Markets Roar Back as Recession Fears Fade, Safe Havens Crumble

The past few weeks highlighted the volatility of global financial markets and how quickly investor sentiment can shift. The sharp selloff in US markets, driven by fears of an impending recession, now appears significantly overdone in light of last week's robust rebound. Strong retail sales data was a key...

Market Panic Subsides as Consolidations Take Hold, but Sentiment Remains Fragile

The global financial markets started last week in a state of panic, driven by a sharp selloff in stock markets, with Japan's Nikkei index experiencing particularly heavy losses. However, as the week progressed, this initial wave of panic appeared to subside, with market sentiment stabilizing somewhat. This calmness, however, should...

Market Turmoil Intensifies With Deepening Recession Fears

The financial markets were marked by significant turbulence this last week again, dominated by risk aversion.  Evidence are surfacing that the US economy is heading for a recession, or even hard landing. Speculation is mounting that Fed might be compelled to implement aggressive rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points...

Multiple Themes Play Out in Turbulent Week, Yield Curve De-Inversion Most Significant

It was a highly volatile week which cannot be characterized by a single theme. Yen had a sharp and robust rally against all major currencies, continuing its rebound from the 38-year lows hit earlier this month, with market participants unwinding their long-held short positions. Alongside Yen, Swiss Franc and...

Shift in Risk Sentiment a Short-Lived Anomaly or Start of a Longer Correction?

Last week proved to be a whirlwind for global markets, marked by a series of shocking events—from the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump last weekend, to the historic global tech outage that occurred on Friday that brought significant attention but surprisingly little reaction from the financial markets. Still,...

Dollar Plummets as Markets Brace for Double or Even Triple Fed Rate Cuts This Year

Dollar weakened broadly last weeks market expectations on Fed's policy path shifted dramatically. The June US CPI report continued the narrative painted by the previous week's Non-Farm Payroll data, both suggesting further cooling in economic activity and easing price pressures. These developments have firmly positioned a September Federal Reserve...

Pound Outshines as Dollar Sinks, Yen Stabilizing

The past week marked a significant downturn for Dollar, which found itself at the bottom of the currency performance chart. A slew of unfavorable economic reports has highlighted the tangible effects of sustained high interest rates on the American economy, fostering a growing consensus that Fed may begin to...