Market Overview
Greenback Drops Ahead of Consumer Data, Risk Sentiment in Focus
Dollar weakened notably against European majors and Yen as markets transitioned into US session, despite subdued overall trading activity. The decline was largely driven by extended fall in US 10-year Treasury yield, which hit its lowest level since mid-December.
Beyond geopolitical and trade war concerns, market focus has turned toward...
Dollar Rises Slightly After Trump Reaffirms March 4 Tariff Plans for Mexico and Canada
Dollar gained slightly overnight, buoyed by mild risk aversion and ongoing tariff threats from President Donald Trump. However, the lack of follow-through momentum in the greenback suggests traders remain hesitant to commit to large directional bets amid persistent policy uncertainty.
US stock market weakness has been most pronounced in the...
Euro Fades After Brief German Election Boost
Euro’s brief post-election rally faded quickly, as investors welcomed CDU/CSU’s victory but remained cautious due to lingering uncertainties around coalition formation and fiscal policy. While a relatively centrist government comprising CDU and the Social Democrats would provide stability, challenges surrounding the "debt brake" reform and defense spending continue to...
Euro Gains Modestly After German Election, But Coalition Uncertainty Keeps Rally in Check
Euro opened the week slightly higher against all major currencies, as traders reacted positively to the German election results. Conservatives CDU/CSU secured victory, setting Friedrich Merz up as the next chancellor. However, Euro's gains remain limited, as uncertainty over coalition talks persists, with negotiations potentially dragging on until Easter.
While...
Risk Aversion Returns as US Tariff Fears Resurface, Dollar Recovers Late
Geopolitical developments dominated global headlines last week, particularly surrounding peace negotiations over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and evolving US-Ukraine relations. While US President Donald Trump’s tariffs took a backseat, concerns over their impact on consumer spending and economic growth resurfaced by the end of the week, triggering renewed risk...
Euro Briefly Dips on Soft PMI, CAD Shrugs Off Robust Retail Sales
Trading is rather subdued in the forex markets today, with most major pairs and crosses stuck within yesterday’s range. Loonie failed to react to significantly stronger-than-expected retail sales data. Euro dipped earlier following weak PMI reports, but selling pressure quickly fizzled out. Yen saw some volatility during the Asian...
Yen Rally Pauses as BoJ Signals Bond Market Intervention, Dollar Soft
Yen volatility remains a key theme in Asian session today. Stronger-than-expected Japanese inflation data provided further justification for BoJ’s ongoing policy normalization, reinforcing speculation that the central bank may hike rates sooner than previously anticipated.
However, Yen’s rally lost momentum after Japan’s 10-year JGB yield pulled back sharply. This dip...
USD/JPY Drops Below 150, Japan CPI to Decide Next Move
Yen continues to dominate the relatively quiet forex markets today, with USD/JPY slipping below the key 150 psychological. The move is largely fueled by rising speculation that BoJ may tighten policy again sooner than expected, a sentiment that's also reflected in 10-year JGB yield's rally to another 15-year high....
Dollar Slips as Markets Dismiss Tariff Talk, Yen and Aussie Firm Up
Dollar is broadly weaker in today’s Asian session, though losses remain contained outside of its sharper decline against Yen. US President Donald Trump reiterated his intention to impose 25% tariffs on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical imports, but markets are showing growing indifference to these repeated trade threats. The lack...
Sterling Unmoved by CPI Surprise, Gold to Try 3000 Again ahead of FOMC Minutes
The forex markets remain rather indecisive today. Traders are paring back expectations for BoE rate cuts after UK inflation surged to a 10-month high. A March rate cut is now off the table, and markets are no longer fully pricing in two BoE cuts this year. However, this shift...
Kiwi Wobbles After RBNZ Cut, Markets Eye UK CPI and FOMC Minutes
New Zealand Dollar initially weakened following RBNZ's 50bps rate cut today, but quickly regained ground as Governor Adrian Orr indicated that the pace of easing will slow in the coming months. Orr suggested that the central bank is likely to implement just more 25bps cuts, in April and May,...
Muted Forex Action as Traders Overlook Data, Await RBNZ Cut
Forex markets remained subdued today, with muted reactions to key economic data. Dollar held broadly higher as traders focused on the US-Russia peace talks, where both sides agreed to continue discussions on ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, meaningful progress is unlikely without direct involvement from Ukraine and European...
RBA’s Cautious Easing Leaves AUD Supported, USD/JPY Ready for a Bounce?
Australian Dollar initially dipped after RBA's widely expected rate cut, but the move was short-lived as the currency quickly stabilized. RBA’s cautious tone on further easing provided underlying support for the Aussie. The central bank made it clear that while policy easing has begun, it is not committing to...
Yen Strength Holds as Focus Turns to RBA Rate Cut
Yen remains the standout performer, even though momentum had moderated slightly. Discussions surrounding BoJ’s next move continue to dominate, particularly in a low-activity session with both US and Canadian markets closed for holidays.
After stronger than expected Japanese Q4 GDP report, market expectations for a July rate hike to 0.75%...
Yen Rallies as Strong GDP Fuels BoJ Rate Hike Speculation
Yen gained strength across the board after Japan’s Q4 GDP growth exceeded expectations, with both private consumption and capital investment rebounding. This development supports BoJ’s decision to hike in January and has fueled speculation that another rate increase could arrive sooner than expected.
It's now seen by some economists that...
Dollar at Crossroads: Rebound Possible, But Bearish Risks Intensify
Dollar closed the week broadly lower, with the only exception being its slight gains against the even weaker Yen. Risk-on sentiment dominated global markets, fueling strong rallies in equities across the US, Europe, and Hong Kong, which in turn kept the greenback under pressure.
The greenback had previously enjoyed a...
Dollar Slides as Markets Cheer Tariff Delay, Kiwi Surges on Manufacturing Rebound
Dollar’s selloff is accelerating as the week draws to a close, with investors continuing to react to the evolving trade policy stance from the White House. Wall Street posted broad gains overnight, as markets took relief in the fact that US President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated reciprocal tariff plan did...
Dollar Muted Despite Strong PPI, Awaits Reciprocal Tariffs
The currency markets are treading cautiously, with traders showing little reaction to stronger-than-expected US PPI data and a better-than-anticipated jobless claims report. Despite these inflationary signals, Dollar has struggled to gain further traction, as market participants hold their positions ahead of a highly anticipated announcement on US "reciprocal tariffs"...
Dollar Momentum Fades as UK GDP Takes Center Stage
The forex markets was subdued in Asian session today. Dollar strength faded quickly after initial boost from stronger-than-expected US inflation data. While the greenback retains most of its gains against Yen, it has started to weaken against other major currencies. The reluctance of Dollar to sustain its rally—despite reduced...
Dollar Surges as Hot Inflation Data Solidifies Prolonged Fed Pause, Yields Surge
Dollar rallied sharply in early US trading after inflation data came in hotter than expected, reinforcing expectations that Fed will maintain its restrictive policy stance for longer than previously anticipated. 10-year Treasury yield surged past 4.6%, extending its strong rebound from earlier in the week. US equity futures plunged,...