Market Overview

Euro tumbles sharply while Yen jumps on as political risks come back to markets. Passing the deadline imposed to Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont, Spanish government said they will "continue with the procedures set out in Article 155 of the Constitution to restore the legality of self-rule in Catalonia." That is, the Spanish Government is going to suspend autonomy of Catalonia.

Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc remain the weakest ones for the week on strong global risk appetite. German DAX closed at new record of 13043.03 yesterday. That was followed by 160.16 pts rise in DOW to 23157.60, and 1.9pts rise in S&P 500 to 2561.26. Both were record highs. US treasury yield followed and closed up 0.041 at 2.339. But that was not followed by Dollar as the greenback reversed earlier gains in late US session. Indeed, Euro is seen to be outperforming Dollar against Swiss Franc and Yen. In other markets, Gold is now back below 1280 after recent recovery hit 1308.4 and lost steam. WTI crude oil is firm at around 52 but struggle to get through 52.86 near term resistance.

Dollar trades generally higher today, except versus Canadian Dollar. But strength of the greenback is rather unconvincing against Euro, Aussie and even Sterling. The more decisive moves are found in USD/CHF and USD/JPY. That should be more likely due to strong risk appetite. German Dax hit new record high at 13094.76 earlier today and is maintaining most of the gains at the time of writing. US futures also point to higher open as DOW would extend recent record runs. Meanwhile, weaker than expected housing data from US also limits greenback's rally . Housing starts dropped to 1.13m in September, below expectation of 1.18m. Building permits also dropped to 1.22m, below expectation of 1.27m. From Canada, manufacturing shipments rose 1.6% mom in August.

Dollar is trading as the strongest one for the week. The greenback was lifted by talks that John Taylor is considered a hawk and has impressed US President Donald Trump in Fed chair interview. But momentum in the greenback is rather weak as it struggled to extend gains in late US session. Dollar was also weighed down mildly by falling yields, with 10 year yield closed down -0.09 at 2.298. Sterling is extending this week's decline as markets are reassessing the dovish possibilities of November BoE meeting. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar rebounded as NAFTA negotiation is extended. UK job data will be the main focus today. Markets will also keep an eye on Chinese Communist Party Congress in Beijing.

Dollar strengthens broadly today on report that Stanford University John Taylor impressed President Donald Trump in his Fed chair interview. Taylor is famous for his so called Taylor rules and he is seen by some as a hawkish candidate as a Fed chair. However, it should be noted that Taylor recently said that rules shouldn't be used as a "way to tie central bankers' hands." Instead, "there are reasons to run policy with a strategy." . Meanwhile, chance of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is fading. Trump will interview current Fed chair Janet Yellen on Thursday. White House economic advisor Gary Cohn and Fed Governor Jerome Powell are among the candidates for the job.

Dollar trades mildly higher this week even though momentum is relatively week. US equities extended the record runs, with DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at new records overnight. Treasury yields also recovered mildly. But there is little support to the greenback yet. The forex markets are generally mixed in consolidative mode, except that some extra weakness is seen in Euro, due to political jitters. Meanwhile, Australia Dollar is trading a touch softer after RBA minutes. Sterling, on the other hand, is firm as markets await inflation data from UK.

Dollar is trading mixed in spite of up beat US economic data and hawkish Fedspeaks. Empire state manufacturing index jumped to 30.2 in October, up from 24.4 and beat expectation of 20.7. That's also the highest level in three years. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren sounded rather hawkish in an interview. He mentioned that Fed will need to hike interest rate December, and then three to four times "over the course of next year". He pointed out that unemployment rate, current at 4.2%, could drop below 4% when the economy is overheating. And in that case, Fed "might have to overshoot" interest rate to a level higher than expected in a healthy economy.

The forex markets open the week rather steadily. Sterling is trying to extend last week's late rally but is held below Friday's high for the moment. It will be a big week for the Pound with inflation, employment and sales data featured. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is trying her last effort to break that deadlock in Brexit negotiation ahead of the crucial EU summit on October 19. Dollar, on the other hand, is mildly firmer, recovering some of the post CPI loss.

It has been a rather volatile week. We were partly correct in expecting strong impact from politics on the markets. But the reactions to central bank news and economic data surprised us. Dollar was clearly weighed down by FOMC minutes and CPI miss and ended as the weakest one. Meanwhile, Euro reversed early gains and ended mixed on rumors about ECB's tapering plan. There was practical no impacts from US President Donald Trump, North Korea and not even Catalonia. Markets also ignored UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Nonetheless, politics did play a role in the extraordinary volatile in Sterling, which ended as the strongest one. Aussie and Kiwi followed as boosted by China data.

Dollar is under selling pressure again in early US session after weaker than expected inflation data. Headline CPI rose 0.5% mom, 2.2% yoy in Septembers, up from 0.4% mom, 1.9% yoy in August, but missed expectation of 0.6% mom, 2.3% yoy. Core CPI rose 0.1% mom, 1.7% yoy, comparing to August's 0.2% mom, 1.7% yoy. More importantly, core CPI missed consensus of 0.2% mom, 1.8% yoy. Retail sales came in slightly better than expected and rose 1.6% in September. Ex auto-sales rose 1.0%. Dollar was sold off earlier this week after FOMC minutes showed policymakers are concerned with sluggishness in inflation. It's resuming that selloff now and that should keep Dollar as the weakest one for the week.

Much volatility was seen in Sterling in the past 24 hours on news regarding Brexit. British Pound suffered steep selling yesterday on news that the fifth round of Brexit negotiations ended with "deadlocks" on the issue of the divorce bill. Nonetheless, Sterling was quickly popped up by reports that UK could get a 2-year Brexit extension. A German newspaper Handelsblatt quoted unnamed source that EU could give that extension to UK under the conditions that the latter will fullfil all obligations as a member country. However, UK will be required to give up its voting rights. If it's true, more time will be allowed for business and citizens of both UK and EU to adjust to the changes.

Dollar rebounds in early US session as boosted by solid economic data. Initial jobless claims dropped 15k to 243k in the week ended October 7, as impacts of hurricanes faded. That's also notably better than expectation of 253k. Four week moving average of initial claims also dropped 9.5k to 257.5k. Continuing claims dropped 32k to 1.89m, hitting lowest in 44 years since 1973. Headline PPI rose 0.4% mom, 2.6% yoy in September, up from 0.2% mom and 2.4% yoy in August, met expectations. Core CPPI rose 0.4% mom and 2.2% yoy, up from 0.1% mom and 2.0% in August, and beat expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.0% yoy. The set of data helps greenback regains some of yesterday's post FOMC minutes losses.

US equities surged to new records while Dollar was pressured as markets perceived FOMC minutes released as slightly dovish ones. DOW rose 42.21 pts or 0.18% to close at 22872.89. S&P 500 rose 4.6 pts or 0.18% to close at 2555.24. Both were new record highs. 10 year yield was flat though at 2.345. Dollar index dipped to as low as 92.89 and breach of 92.94 near term support now suggests more downside in near term. Gold hits as high as 1297.9 in Asian session and is set to take on 1300 handle, comparing to last week's low at 1262.8. That is consistent with Dollar's weakness this week. Meanwhile, Sterling and Euro remain the strongest ones for the week so far, Yen trails behind Dollar as the second weakest.

Dollar stays generally weak today as markets await September FOMC minutes. The key takeaway of that FOMC meeting was that policymakers stick to the plan to raise interest rate one more time this year. And they projected to hike three more times next year. Markets pricing for December hike jumped sharply since then. Fed fund futures are implying 93.1% odds for that. Core inflation projection for 2017 and 2018 were revised slightly lower. But core inflation forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were kept unchanged. The accompanying statement and economic projections suggested that Fed was not too concerned with recent slowdown in core inflation. And that was being reflected in the overall tone of comments of Fed officials so far. Markets will look into more details on how comfortable the policy makers are on inflation outlook. But overall, we're not expecting anything revealing from the minutes.

Dollar is trading generally lower, together with treasury yield, as weighed down by uncertainty over tax overhaul. Dollar index breached 94.14 resistance briefly last week but it's now back at 93.30. Similarly, 10 year yield breached 2.396 resistance last week but is back at 2.345. On the other hand, Euro remains broadly firm as Catalonia risk has eased at least for now. EUR/USD is having 1.1832 near term resistance in sight. This level will be closely watched and break there will probably trigger steeper selloff in Dollar and spread to other pairs.

Euro's rebound continues today as supported by solid German data. There is some uncertainty ahead as Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont is set to address the regional parliament at 1600GMT. For the moment, Catalonia is seen as the major near term risk limiting Euro's strength. On the background, recent comments from ECB officials are affirming the case of the announcement of stimulus recalibration later in the month. Meanwhile, Dollar is clearly losing upside momentum at the point. There is much upside potential for Euro in near term after getting past Catalan risk, one way or the other.

Euro trades broadly higher as lifted by comments from ECB officials that affirm the expectation of some sort of tapering in asset purchases next year. Catalonia remains a risk to the common currency but the case for independence seem to be fading. The risk is taking a back seat for the moment. Meanwhile, Sterling also recovers together with Euro as Prime Minister Theresa May seems to be safe from being ousted for now. Dollar, on the other hand, is trading generally lower together with the Japanese Yen.

Dollar regains some ground as another week starts, rather quietly. Trading could be subdued with US and Canada on Columbus Day holiday today. The greenback weaken before the weekly close last Friday on news that North Korea is preparing to strike another missile that could reach as far as the West Coast of the US. President Donald Trump tweeted again during the weekend, saying that with "agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work!" But Trump didn't go on to explain what is that "only one thing". Last Thursday, Trump also told reporters that a gathering of top military officials represented the "calm before the storm" And he refused to elaborate after be asked to. But judging from the reactions from the markets today, no one will care what those words means unless the intentions are spelt out clearly.

Dollar ended as the strongest major currency last week as economic data released affirmed a December Fed hike. The surprised contraction in non-farm payroll was offset by strong wage growth. However, the greenback pared back some of its gain on resurgence on North Korea risk. On the other hand, the British Pound suffered broad based heavy selling as there were increasing calls for Prime Minister Theresa May to step down, in the crucial time of trade negotiations with the world. In spite of political uncertainties in Catalonia, Euro showed much resilience and ended the week mixed only. North Korea, Catalonia, Theresa May, Japan election, are the key things to watch ahead. Politics might overshadow economic data again.

Dollar spikes higher in early US session even though the headline Non-Farm Payrolls number is a big disappointment. NFP dropped -33K in September, first contraction seen since 2010. That's also much worse than expectation of 77K. However, it should be noted that the figure was skewed heavily by the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. And the markets seem not to be to bothered by it. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, down from 4.4%, lowest since December 2000. Participation rate also increased to 63.1%, up from 62.9%. The most positive surprise is wage growth. Average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% mom. While wage growth could also be inflated by the hurricanes, it beats an also optimistic expectation of 0.3% mom already.