Market Overview
Euro Higher as Investor Confidence Improves, Yen also Recovers as Risk Markets Turned Mixed
Euro receives a wave of buying in European session, partly as lifted by improving investor confidence data. EUR/USD's break of last week's high is a positive development. Yet, the rally is not strong enough to warrant near term bullishness yet. Meanwhile, the common currency remains bounded in familiar range...
Yen Mildly Higher While Dollar Softens. ECB, FOMC Minutes and US CPI the Focuses
Yen recovers notably in Asian session today but the recovery is not strong enough to warrant a sustainable rebound yet. Meanwhile, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are generally pressured while there is no apparent sign of risk aversion. The economic calendar is not particular busy today with some second-tier...
Fundamentals Improved But Uncertainties Remain, Forex Markets Isolated From Optimism Elsewhere
After a strong Q1, risk appetite extended into the first week of Q2. The most notable improvements were seen in the bond markets, as German 10-year yield turned positive again. US 10-year yield also reclaimed 2.5 handle. However, stocks and 10-year yield are both near to key resistance zone....
Dollar Higher as NFP Beat Expectations, But Upside Capped by Sluggish Wage Growth
Dollar is lifted mildly in early US session as employment data posted slight upside surprise. But buying in the greenback is not broad based yet. A key factoring limiting Dollar' rise is sluggish wage growth. But after all, the set of numbers look way better than February's. Meanwhile, Canadian...
Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payroll after Vague Progress in US-China Trade Talks
Yen is trading softer in otherwise quiet markets today with Hong Kong and China on Holiday. Yen is indeed also the weakest one for the week following rebound in global treasury yields. For now, Swiss Franc is the second weakest for the day, followed by Dollar. Sterling is again...
Dollar Higher on Jobless Claims, Cautious ahead of Trump-Liu Meeting and NFP
Dollar rises broadly in early US session as partly helped by pleasant surprise in initial jobless claims, which fell to lowest since 1969. But gains are so far limited as markets are awaiting meeting between Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at 2030 GMT. It's widely reported that...
Markets Mixed as US-China Trade Talks Enter into Final Stage
Chinese stocks extend recent rally on news that US-China trade negotiation are completing its final stage. There could even be an announcement of Trump-Xi summit today and Trump meets Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. However, outside China, the markets are just mixed, without clear directions. Economic data released this...
Poor US ADP and UK PMI Services Ignored, Risk Appetite Stays Strong
Risk appetite are generally firm globally today and it's best reflected in Germany 10-year yield, which turns positive for the time in more than a week. It's a rather clear indcation of a positive turn in overall sentiments. There is some optimism on US-China trade negotiations, which resume in...
Trade Talk Optimism and Chinese Service Data Lift Sentiments, Yen Pressured
Yen is back under pressure again today as Asian stock markets extend this week's rally. Stronger than expected Chinese services data is lifting sentiments. Meanwhile, there is somewhat some optimism on US-China trade negotiations, which is restarting in Washington today. International organizations continued to give warnings on global slowdown,...
Dollar Trading Higher Despite Durable Miss, Sterling Soft in Established Range
Dollar trades generally higher today even though upside momentum is capped by weaker than expected durable goods report. Economic data released this week are so far mixed. But at least, they don't point to heightened recession risk. While long treasury yields retreat mildly today, they're held well above last...
Australian Dollar Tumbles as RBA Signals It’s Ready to Move
Australian Dollar trading broadly lower today after RBA kept interest rate unchanged. While there was no clear dovish shift, the statement suggests that RBA is starting to get ready for a move. Weakness in Aussie takes New Zealand Dollar lower too. Sterling is the third weakest so far after...
US Retail Sales Disappointment Raises Doubts on Optimism from Chinese Data
Global markets are generally in risk-on mode today as recession fears eased mildly after improvement in Chinese manufacturing data. While sentiments remain generally positive in early US session, there is a slight bit of cautiousness after disappointment retail sales from he US. Headline sales dropped -0.2% mom in February,...
China Manufacturing PMIs Back in Expansion, Asian Stocks and Australian Dollar Lifted
Stock markets staged a strong rally in Asian session as lifted by better than expected manufacturing data from China. Both official and Caixin PMI manufactured climbed back into expansionary region, suggests that the worst could be over. Australian Dollar jumps broadly following generally positive risk sentiments, followed by New...
Risk Aversion to Come Back in Q2 as Stocks and Yields Recouple
Intensifying recession fear was the main theme in the markets in March, alongside never-ending Brexit and trade tensions. With downside risks to growth starting to materialize, major global central banks started their dovish turns. Most notably, Fed now forecasts no rate hike this year. ECB will keep interest rates...
Canadian Dollar Surges on GDP Surprise and Oil Rally, Sterling Recovers ahead of Brexit Vote
Canadian Dollar jumps sharply in early US session after stronger than expected GDP data. At least, the three month-rolling average remained in expansion despite the contraction in December and November. Additionally, WTI crude oil surged through recent resistance to resume larger up trend to as high as 60.72. For...
Yen Softer as Stocks & Yields Rebound, Pounds Awaits Another Brexit Vote
Yen is under some mild selling pressure today as China stocks lead Asian markets higher. While US 10-year yield failed to sustain above 2.4 handle overnight, it looks like recent decline has stabilized some what. And some more recovery in yield could be seen before quarter end. US-China trade...
Dollar Higher as Treasury Yields Attempting Rebound, Sterling Stays Weak on Brexit
Dollar rises broadly in early US session with help from rebound in treasury yields. 10-year yield is now trying to regain 2.4 handle. Poor Q4 GDP is ignored while traders could be hopeful on some progress in US-China trade talks in Beijing. The development drags down the Japanese to...
Brexit Stalemate Continues, US-China Trade Talks Resume, Euro Vulnerable
The forex markets are relatively quiet as quarter end approaches. Sterling remains stuck in range as Brexit stalemate continues. The UK Parliament continued to tell the world what they don't want regarding Brexit, but not they really want. Meanwhile, US-China trade talks are resuming in Beijing today. There are...
Sterling Higher ahead of Brexit Indicative Votes, Yen Higher as Treasury Yields Extend Slump
Indicative votes on Brexit alternatives in the UK House of Commons will catch most attention ahead. Debate is due to start by 1500GMT. We'll see what alternative Brexit path could gain majority in the Parliament. House of Commons Speaker John Bercow will select which of the proposals will be...
Selloff in New Zealand and Australian Dollar Dominates on Rate Cuts Bets
Selloff in New Zealand and Australian Dollar is the main theme in Asian session today. Kiwi plummets after RBNZ stands pat and indicates that the next move is a cut. After that, a full RBZN cut in priced in November but there are speculations on as early as a...