Central Bank Views
BOC Preview – No Change in Rates, Dovish Stance Accompanied by Modest Forecast Downgrades
We expect BOC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the upcoming meeting this week. Besides releasing the statement and Monetary Policy Report, the central bank would also update the economic forecasts and host a press conference. The focus of the meeting would be possible downward revisions...
BOE Turns Dovish as Brexit Deadline Nears, Yet No Deal is Secured
BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% in December. The committee also voted unanimously to leave the asset purchase program at 435B pound .It has turned more cautious than November, warning that Brexit uncertainty has “intensified considerably” since November. Thanks to lower oil prices, policymakers...
FOMC Review – Fed Not As Dovish As Expected
The December FOMC meeting outcome is expected, yet unexpected. As widely anticipated, it raised the policy rate, by +25 bps, to 2.25-2.5%. The IOER rate was raised by +20bps. The members trimmed the rate hike forecasts to two, form three, for September. They remained upbeat about economic outlook, but...
BOJ: Loss in Communication Hinders Policy Effectiveness
The government of Japan downgrades its forecasts on GDP growth and inflation for the coming years. This evidences the failure of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy adopted by the Bank of Japan. We believe the central bank has already run out of solutions to rescue sluggish economic...
BOE Probably Turns More Cautious amid Brexit Uncertainty
At the meeting later in the week, BOE would most likely leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%. It would also keep the purchases of gilts and corporate bonds remain at 435B pound and 10B pound, respectively. BOE sounded hawkish in November. Yet, given the changes in economic and...
Fed Likely Hikes Rate in December, Future Path More Dovish
While the majority of market participants (including us) expects the Fed to raise the policy rate, by +25 bps, to 2.25-2.5% at the December meeting, this is far from fully priced in. CME’s Fed funds futures suggest that the market has priced in less than 80% of a rate...
ECB’s Reinvestment of QE Proceeds Would Well- Pass First Rate Hike. Growth Outlook Downgraded
At the December meeting, ECB formally announced that the asset purchase program (QE) would end by this month. In order to maintain the size of the balance sheet at the current 2.6 trillion euro, the central bank would reinvest the proceeds for “an extended period of time” which should...
ECB Preview – Focus on Reinvestment Plan, New Round of TLTRO
The market is closely watching ECB’s policy after QE. At the upcoming meeting next week, ECB would announce its plan to reinvest the maturing bonds. Meanwhile, market speculations are rising that the central bank would soon announce a new round of its targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO). Given recent...
BOC Preview: Will Poloz Maintain Hawkish Stance?
Bank of Canada is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, after a rate hike of +25 bps in October. Despite bets of another move this month, we believe policymakers would take a wait- and- see mode to assess the impact of the sharp fall of oil...
RBA More Concerned about Housing Markets, Disinflation Likely Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged for 2019
As widely expected, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 26th consecutive meeting. The accompanying statement contained little new information. Yet, it revealed that the members were dovish about the housing market. Meanwhile, disinflation in Australian economy should likely lead the central bank to keep its...
FOMC Minutes Signals Rate Hike “Fairly Soon”, Policy Outlook Masked by Tariff and Debts
The FOMC minutes for the November revealed that the members still considered a rate hike in December is appropriate. Yet, they debated on the change in forward guidance regarding the pledge on “further gradual increases” in the policy rate. Some judged that the policy rate is near to the...
Fed Chair Powell’s U-Turn on Interest Rates?
Stock markets rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club, New York. Market players were thrilled amid their interpretation that Powell has turned dovish, probably succumbed to Trump’s endless criticism. We do not see an abrupt turn on Powell’s stance.
What the market focused on was Powell’s...
ECB Might Keep Policy Rates Low for Longer, Given Downside Risk to Growth and Trade War
ECB has tilted its tone on the economic outlook recently. In the minutes for the October meeting, ECB acknowledged “uncertainties and fragilities” in the economy. The members noted that risks to the economic outlook is skewed to the downside as driven by the uncertainties related to global trade. Yet,...
Australia: Low Unemployment Rate Masks Underlying Problems in Job Market
RBA has sounded confident in the domestic growth outlook in both. On the job market, the members acknowledged the decline in unemployment rate and indicated the “notable” fall in youth unemployment. The central bank forecast that employment growth would be slightly above average in the period ahead, facilitated by...
Limited News from FOMC, December Rate Hike Hopes Unaltered
As widely anticipated, FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.00-2.25% at its November meeting. The changes in the accompanying statement were limited. This is not unusual as the November meeting is in between important ones in September and December. No press conference and...
RBNZ Affirmed the Next Move Can be Up Or Down, Despite Upbeat Data
RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75% in November. The move had been widely anticipated. Despite recent strong dataflow, the central bank downplayed the improvements and Governor Adrian Orr affirmed that the next rate change can be up or down. Kiwi, which has jumped to the highest level in...
RBA Turns More Upbeat Over GDP Growth, Keeps Rates Unchanged amidst Low Inflation
The RBA meeting this month is a non-event. As widely anticipated, the members left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%, for the 25th consecutive meeting. The members remained upbeat over the economic outlook, expecting the job market to strengthen further and wage growth to improve. The central bank left...
FOMC Preview – Affirming a Strong Economic Case for December Rate Hike
The aim of the FOMC meeting later this week is to prepare the market for a December rate hike. While the recent stock market crash and slowdown in inflation have trimmed bet for a December rate hike to 77.5% from 80% a month ago, the macroeconomic environment is still...
Hawkish Carney Signals Overheating Economy Could Accelerate BOE Rate Hikes
As widely anticipated, BOE voted unanimously to keep all monetary policies unchanged in November. The Bank rate stays unchanged at 0.75%. Meanwhile, purchases of gilts and corporate bonds remain at 435B pound and 10B pound, respectively. The central bank sent a more hawkish-than-expected message to the market. While reiterating...
ECB Reveals No Details about Reinvestment. December in Focus
ECB left it policy rates and the asset purchase program unchanged. The members remained confident over the economic outlook but acknowledges some risks, including protectionism and financial market volatility, that could derail the recovery path. As we had anticipated, ECB has kept the details of the reinvestment schedule after...