Central Bank Views
ECB Reduces PEPP Purchases, Upgrades Inflation forecasts
The ECB meeting came largely in line with expectations. While leaving the policy rates unchanged, the members confirmed that the PEPP program would end in March 2022. Meanwhile, they have extended the reinvestment process and topped up the APP program, as means to continuously provide liquidity to the market....
BOE Hikes Bank Rate, Surprising the Market Two Months in a Row
The BOE surprised the market in two consecutive months. After failing to deliver rate hike in November, the members surprisingly increased the Bank rate by +15 bps to 0.25% in December. Concerns over elevated trumped Omicron variant uncertainty. British pound rallied against US dollar and the euro.
The members voted...
Hawkish Fed Anticipates Three or More Rate Hikes Next Year
FOMC delivered a hawkish outlook at the December meeting. Besides doubling the size of tapering as we had anticipated, more than two-third of the members have projected at least 3 rate hikes next year. The latest economic projections suggest that inflation could rise to +5.3% this year before easing....
ECB Preview – Phase-Out of PEPP by March as Scheduled
The focus of this week’s ECB meeting is whether the PEPP would extend beyond March 2020 in light of the new Omicron variant and rapid increase the number of coronavirus cases across Europe since the November meeting. Recent comments from ECB officials signal that things would go as planned....
BOE Preview – Delaying Rate Hike to February 2022
We expect the BOE to stand pat at this week’s meeting. October’s GDP came in weaker than expected, and the renewed restrictive measures to curb spread of the new Omicron variant could affect household consumption and put a brake on the job market improvement. We expect policymakers to wait...
FOMC Preview – Fed to Double Size of QE Tapering
The Fed this week will announce acceleration of QE tapering. With inflation approaching 7%, policymakers would likely revise its view on inflation outlook and "retire" the word "transitory". The updated economic projections and median dot plots showing members' interest rate projections would also be released. The Fed funds rate...
BOC Preview – Reiterating Rate Hike in First Half 2022 amidst Strong Economic Data
Following a hawkish move in October, we expect the BOC to keep the powder dry this week. Policymakers should acknowledge the strong GDP growth and job market data, while cautioning over the uncertainty of the Omicron variant. They are also expected to reiterate the stance that the rate hike...
RBA Stayed Put, Cautiously Optimistic Over Domestic Economy
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.1% and the asset purchase program at AUD 4B/week. Policymakers maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook over economic recovery despite Omicron uncertainty. Again, policymakers reiterated that the next meeting (February) would be the time to discuss the pace of QE purchases.
The central...
RBA Preview – Keeping Powder Dry on Mixed Data and Omicron Uncertainty
The RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.1%. Given the mixed economic data flow since the last meeting, the uncertainty of the Omicron variant and the scheduled discussion about asset purchases in February, policymakers would stand pat at the upcoming meeting. They would also...
Hawkish Powell Expects Fed to End QE Tapering a Few Months Earlier than Previously Anticipated
Despite concerns over the new coronavirus variant Omicron, Fed Chair Jay Powell’s testimony before the Senate was hawkish. He suggested that the Fed could accelerate the tapering of asset purchases in order to curb strong inflation. US dollar extended rally against major currencies, with the exception of Japanese yen...
RBNZ Hiked Rate but More Cautious about Economic Outlook
The RBNZ raised the OCR by +25 bps to 0.75%, as we had anticipated. Policymakers sounded more cautiously about the economic outlook while reiterating the stance of continued reduction of stimulus. Kiwi extended recent correction after the announcement.
On the monetary policy outlook, the central bank reiterated that “it remains...
RBNZ To Lift Policy Rate Again after Strong Inflation
The RBNZ is ready to increase the policy rate again this week. The question is whether, in light of the latest strong inflation data, whether the hike is +25 bps or +50 bps. We continue to expect the former. Several banks have lifted the mortgage rates, while bond yields...
Rate Hike Speculations Heighten as Eurozone’s Inflation Accelerates Further
The latest ECB bulletin, European Commission's latest inflation projections and the preliminary inflation data for October rekindled ECB's rate hike speculations.
At the ECB bulletin, policymakers acknowledged that strong inflation proves more persistent than previously anticipated. Yet, they expected that it would fade next year. As noted in the report,...
Market Disappointed at BOE Left Bank at Historic Low. Downgraded Growth Forecast
We were surprised that the Committee voted with overwhelming majority to leave the Bank rate at 0.1%. Despite Governor Andrew Bailey's hawkish comments ahead of the meeting, the was one of those who voted to leave the policy rate unchanged. The BOE also decided to leave the QE program...
Fed Will Start Reducing Asset Purchases in Coming Weeks. Not in a Rush to Raise Rate
As widely anticipated, the Fed announced to taper its QE program. The Fed funds rate was kept unchanged at 0-0.25%. US dollar retreated after the meeting as the Fed continued to view inflation as "transitory" and did not appear to think that a rate hike was imminent.
On economic developments,...
RBA Review – Ending Yield Curve Control and Pushed Forward First Rate Hike to 2023
The RBA tilted modestly to the hawkish side by formally ending the yield curve control and adjusting its forward guidance on the first rate hike. Policymakers remained optimistic over the economic outlook and were not very concerned about inflation. Aussie plunged as Governor Philip Lowe indicated that a lift-off...
BOE Preview – Rate Hike Cycle to Begin?
The market has fully priced in a +15 bps increase BOE's bank rate (currently at 0.1%). The mixed economic developments since the September indicate that the Committee will be very divided over whether to hike or to stand on the sideline this month. Th staff will also release the...
FOMC Preview – Tapering to Formally Begin
The November FOMC meeting would see the Fed making a formal announcement on QE tapering. We expect the plan would begin immediately and is expected to end by mid-2022. The Fed funds rate will stay unchanged at 0-0.25%. The market has priced in over 60% of a rate hike...
ECB Downplayed Urgency of Rate Hike to Tame Inflation
ECB’s meeting came in largely as we had anticipated. Policymakers acknowledged the stronger-than-expected inflation but downplayed the need to push forward rate hike. All monetary policy measures remained intact with the main refi rate, the marginal lending rate and the deposit rate staying at 0%, 0.25% and -0.5% respectively....
Hawkish BOC Ends QE. May Hike Interest Rate in 2Q22 the Earliest
The BOC surprised to the hawkish side at the October meeting. Policymakers announced to end the QE program and begin the reinvestment process, compared with consensus of a reduction to the weekly purchase of CAD1B. While leaving the overnight rate unchanged at the effective lower bound of 0.25%, the...