• USDJPY extends consolidation around August’s bar
• Technical signals weaken, cannot warrant a bullish trend reversal
• US retail sales, jobless claims due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT

USDJPY reached a two-month high of 149.96, but it couldn’t hold its strength above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 149.40 on Tuesday.

Over the past few days, the pair has been struggling for a bullish breakout, leaving investors wondering whether it’s time for a negative pivot. The slowdown in the technical indicators reflects persisting reluctance among traders as the price hovers around August’s bar. Note that the MACD has reached its ceiling from July and April.

Still, with the RSI hanging comfortably above its 50 neutral mark and the 20-day EMA set to cross above the 50-day EMA, buying appetite may not entirely disappear. In this case, the pair may again attempt to stretch towards the 150.75-151.55 border. The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September downtrend and the crucial support-turned-resistance line from the 2023 bottom are in that price neighborhood. Hence, a breach of that wall could excite buyers, speeding up the recovery process towards the 61.8% Fibonacci mark of 153.40 and the 154.00 barrier. Another success there could trigger a faster rally towards the 157.00 round level.

Should the bears take charge immediately, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 148.11 may provide some protection ahead of the 20- and 50-day SMAs at 147.00. A move lower could stall within the 144.85-145.60 territory formed by the 23.6% Fibonacci and the ascending line from July. If selling forces persist, they could forcefully press the price towards the 141.60 base.

In brief, USDJPY is trading near a decisive territory that could determine its next direction. For a bullish trend reversal, the pair must close above August’s bar of 149.40 and more importantly sustain buying interest above 151.55.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.74; (P) 149.33; (R1) 149.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 149.97 temporary top. Further rally is expected with 146.48 resistance turned support intact. Above 149.97 will resume the rise from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. However, firm break of 146.48 will argue that such rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.20; (P) 149.59; (R1) 150.15; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Another rise is expected for now, and break of 149.97 will resume the rise from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. However, firm break of 146.48 will argue that such rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.20; (P) 149.59; (R1) 150.15; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside as rise from 139.57 is in progress. This rally is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94, and should target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 148.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.58; (P) 148.94; (R1) 149.46; More…

USD/JPY’s rise from 139.57 resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside, This rally is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94, and should target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 148.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.58; (P) 148.94; (R1) 149.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 149.58 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 145.91 support holds. Above 149.58 will resume the rise from 139.57 short term bottom to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

USD/JPY’s rise from 139.57 extended to 149.58 last week but turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and some more consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 145.91 support holds. Above 149.58 will resume the rise to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.73).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.04; (P) 148.79; (R1) 149.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 149.58 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 145.91 minor support holds. Rise from 139.57 is s seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.58 will target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.04; (P) 148.79; (R1) 149.33; More…

With a temporary top formed at 149.58, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 145.91 minor support holds. Rise from 139.57 is s seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.58 will target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.43; (P) 148.89; (R1) 149.78; More…

USD/JPY dips in early US session but stays above 147.33 minor support. Intraday bias stays on the upside, as rise from 139.57 short term bottom is still in progress. Current rally is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. On the downside, below 147.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.43; (P) 148.89; (R1) 149.78; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 139.57 short term bottom resumed after brief consolidations, and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. On the downside, below 147.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.57; (P) 147.97; (R1) 148.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. More consolidations could be seen below 149.11 temporary top. But further rise is expected as long as 141.63 support holds. Rise from 139.57 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.35 resistance will target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.57; (P) 147.97; (R1) 148.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 149.11 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 141.63 support holds. Rise from 139.57 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.35 resistance will target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.65; (P) 148.39; (R1) 148.93; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. But further rally is expected as long as 141.63 support holds. Rise from 139.57 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.35 resistance will target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.65; (P) 148.39; (R1) 148.93; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rebound from 139.57 low is in progress. This rally is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.35 resistance will target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 145.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.78; (P) 147.89; (R1) 149.86; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 139.57 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Rise from 139.57 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.35 resistance will target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 145.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.78; (P) 147.89; (R1) 149.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 139.57 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.35 resistance will target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 145.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

USD/JPY’s strong rebound and break of 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 148.11 argued that fall from 161.94 has completed already. Rise from 139.57 is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Initial bias stays on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 145.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern from rise form 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.73).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.37; (P) 146.80; (R1) 147.40; More…

USD/JPY’s rise from 139.57 extends higher today and intraday bias stays on the upside. The break of 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 148.11 argues that whole fall from 161.95 has completed already, just ahead of 139.26 fibonacci level. Rebound from 139.67 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 153.39. On the downside, below 145.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as the first leg of the correction to whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to contain downside, at least on first attempt. Firm break of 149.35 resistance will indicate that the second leg has started. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.37; (P) 146.80; (R1) 147.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside as rebound from 139.57 short term bottom is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 148.11. Decisive break there will argue that whole fall from 161.95 has completed ahead of 139.26 fibonacci level. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 153.39. However, break of 141.63 support will bring retest of 139.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as the first leg of the correction to whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to contain downside, at least on first attempt. Firm break of 149.35 resistance will indicate that the second leg has started. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.