Brexit news again dominates the headline as UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she has gained support from the Cabinet the Withdrawal Deal hammered out between the UK and EU. End of the story? Not yet. If both the UK Cabinet and the EU approve the deal, the EU would call for a special meeting for votes by member- states of the Union. Meanwhile, the UK needs to get ratification of the Parliament. As we have mentioned previously, the biggest hurdle is UK’s parliamentary vote.
The Deal
Recall that the “remaining 5%” of the withdrawal deal is concerned with Irish border. Back in March, the EU proposed a backstop plan in an attempt to avoid that a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. It suggested that, if no better solutions were found, Northern Ireland would stay in the EU customs union and most parts of the single market, unless and until a long-term trade deal is agreed upon that kept the border as open as it is now. The UK rejected the proposal, suggesting that it is an invasion to sovereignty (Northern Ireland adopts EU law and creates a border in the Irish Sea). Instead, it counter-proposed that the WHOLE UK, together with North Ireland, would align with the EU customs arrangement for “a limited period” after 2020. This has been rejected by the EU, which insisted that the backstop plan has to continue until a better option is found.
The draft agreement released yesterday proposed that, to deal with Irish border, a “single customs territory” between EU and UK would be established. Accordingly, Northern Ireland is in the same customs territory as Great Britain. Such single customs territory will begin operation from the end of the transition period (21 months from March 29, 2019). If EU and UK fail to agree a deal on their future relationship by December 31, 2020, the end of the transition period, the backstop will continue until a subsequent agreement is in place. The UK can request to extend to the transition period, before July 1st, 2020. It might also be able to leave this single customs territory of either side notifies the other that it wants the backstop to come to an end. The plan would cease if both sides “jointly” judge that it is no longer necessary. This signals that the UK would not be able to withdraw from the backstop plan unilaterally.
On other issues, it is proposed that rights of EU citizens living in the UK and rights of UK nationals living in the EU are protected. The divorce fee is estimated to be between 35-39B pound.
UK Parliament
The biggest challenge is UK’s parliamentary vote. Back in June 2017, Theresa May, as soon as she has become the PM, called for a snap election. Contrary to her hope of expanding Tory’s majority in the parliament, the election resulted in a loss of Tory majority. The party had to enter into a “confidence-and-supply arrangement” with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in order to keep the government afloat.
Some Brexiteers within the Conservative Party and DUP hardliners have indicated that they would dissent on the deal. It would be impossible for May to gain majority support for the deal, if she fails to persuade many of those in her alliance, let alone those from the Labor Party and SNP.
