Dollar Turned Around While Tapering Talks Heated Up Again
Dollar soared towards the end of the week as the stellar job report should give Fed much confidence to start tapering later in the year. Reactions from stock markets and yields were also positive, with DOW and S&P closing at new records while 10-year yield rebounded. Together with the...
Dollar Jumps as NFP Grew 943k, EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.175 Support
Dollar jumps sharply in early US session after stronger than expected non-farm payroll data. If job growth could sustain at current page in August, more FOMC members would be ready to call for tapering in Q4. Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen are the most responsive to Dollar buying so...
Crude Oil Prone to Record First Fall in 3 Weeks on Delta Variant, China Slowdown and OPEC+’s Deal
Despite recovery, crude oil prices are prone to record the first decline in 3 weeks. The sharp selloff earlier in the week is a result of a confluence of factors including resurgence of the pandemic in the US and China, China’s economic slowdown and OPEC+’s plan to increase output.
The...
Dollar Extending Recovery ahead of Job Data, Aussie Lower on RBA
Dollar is trying to extend this week's recovery in Asian session, as focus turns to non-farm payrolls reports. Whether Fed would start tapering asset purchases by the end of the year, or earlier, would very much depend on the job data in Q3. Elsewhere, Aussie is trading a touch...
BOE Signals Earlier Unwinding of Balance Sheet. Modest Tightening On the Way
The BOE voted unanimously to keep Bank rate at 0.1%, and 7-1 to leave purchases of government bond at 875B pound. While the latter decision came less hawkish than we had anticipated (we expected 2 dissents), British pound got a boost as policymakers hinted about “modest tightening”.
Upgrading Inflation Forecast
The...
Sterling Lifted Slightly after BoE, But Overall Markets Tread Water
Sterling was lifted very briefly after BoE policy decision, but there was again no follow through buying. Dollar also pays little attention to jobless claims. Overall, the markets are staying in consolidative mode, and would probably stay so before tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report. As of now, Kiwi is the...
Dollar Recovered But Lacks Follow Through Buying, Sterling Turns to BoE First
Overall markets were rather mixed for the moment. Dollar's selloff was quickly choked off by strong ISM services overnight, even though there is no clear follow through buying. Traders are holding off the bets for now, awaiting tomorrow's non-farm payroll figures. Sterling will come to the center of the...
Dollar Falls on Big ADP Miss, Gold Surges
US futures turn south after much weaker than expected ADP job data. Yen regains much growth as risk sentiment turn cautious again. Though, as for today, Kiwi and Aussie are still the strongest. Canadian Dollar is currently the worst performing as dragged down by weakness in oil price. Dollar...
BOE Preview – Awaiting Signals to Exit
The focus of this week's BOE is whether the result of the policy review would be revealed. In particular, whether there will be guideline on BOE's exit sequence of QE and record low policy rate. Meanwhile, economic projections in reflection of the economic developments since the June would also...
Kiwi Jumps after Strong Employment Data, Dollar Weakness Continues
Following strong closes in US stocks, Asian markets ex-Japan are trading generally higher. The development helps lift commodity currencies generally higher. In particular, New Zealand Dollar is additionally lifted by much stronger than expected job data. Yen is paring some gains but weak treasury yields is keeping it afloat....
Dollar Back Under Pressure as Swiss Franc Surges Again
Dollar is under some pressure as falling treasury yield is weighing down the greenback. Canadian Dollar is even weaker as WTI oil price breaches 70 handle again. New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the stronger ones but gains are limited. The post RBA lift on Aussie is so far...
RBA Sticks with Tapering in September, Shrugging Off Short-term Impacts of Lockdown
Surprisingly, the RBA remained optimistic about the economic outlook despite the lockdown in various states over the past weeks. At today’s meeting, the members decided to go ahead with QE tapering from September and upgraded economic forecasts.
The central bank maintained a upbeat view over Australia’s economy. As governor Philip...
Aussie Rebounds as RBA Sticks to Tapering Plan, Yen Firm on Falling Yields
Australia Dollar rebounds notably after RBA surprised markets by sticking to its tapering plan. Kiwi appears to be a touch stronger, but Aussie is not far away. Yen is also firm on falling treasury yields. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar is trading generally lower as oil price retreated....
Sterling Weakens in Mixed Trading, Euro Recovers
Sterling is notably lower today in otherwise mixed markets. Euro is also firm, with help from recovery against the Pound. Aussie is the stronger one, mainly because it's paring last week's losses. Upside is so far limited ahead of tomorrow's RBA monetary policy decision. On the other hand, Swiss...
RBA Preview – Delaying Taper and Downgrading Near-Term Growth Forecasts
We expect the RBA to postpone the tapering policy announced last month. It will also downgrade GDP growth forecast for this year and revise the unemployment rate higher. All the above changes are driven by the unexpected lockdown in New South Wales, Australia's largest state economy accounting for around...
Dollar Recovers Mildly But Key Events Lie Ahead
The market opened the month with mildly positive sentiment, with major Asian indexes trading higher. But there is little reaction in the currency markets. Commodity currencies are generally soft for now, with slight losses in particular in Kiwi and Loonie. On the other hand, Dollar, Yen and Euro are...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short of GBP Futures will Likely Trim Next Week
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 27, NET SHORT of USD index futures rose +4 353 contracts to 16 541. Speculative long positions added +2 976 contracts while shorts decreased -1 377 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil’s Net Long Increased Only Slightly Despite Price Rise
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 27. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +1 024 contracts to 449 764 for the week. Speculative long position gained +8 365 contracts, while shorts increased +7 341 contracts. Bets on higher and lower crude...
More Downside for Dollar and Aussie, Swiss Franc Outperforms
Dollar's selloff caught much attention last week, but slowed towards the end. Traders are holding their bets for now, awaiting the coming batch of July data. Indeed, Australian Dollar was the worst performer, mainly on RBA QE expectations, and partly on risk aversion in China and Hong Kong. New...
Dollar Recovers after Personal Income and Spending, But Still the Worst Performer
Dollar recovers mildly in early US session, following slight weakness in risk sentiments. Additionally, stronger than expected personal income and spending are providing some support too. Still, the greenback remains the worst performing one for the week. There is prospect of Yen, Aussie or Kiwi overtaking Dollar as biggest...