Dollar Rally in Force as Focus Turns to CPI
Dollar's rally continues in Asian session today, in particular against Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen. Though, cautious comments from Fed Evans is not giving any particular boost elsewhere. Commodity currencies are still resilient, as supported by overall optimistic sentiment, with DOW closing at new record high. Main focus will...
Volatile Gold Price will Remain be Driven by Speculations of Fed’s Tapering
Gold trading is slim after Monday’s sharp selloff. Despite concerns over the delta variant, the precious metals lost their safe haven appeal as speculations over Fed’s early tapering escalated after the strong nonfarm payolls data. The front-month Comex gold contract slumped to a 4-month low of 1677.9 before settling...
Euro Falls after Sharp Fall in Economic Sentiment, Accelerating Lower
Euro falls broadly today after data showed surprised sharp fall in Germany and Eurozone economic sentiment. But at this point, Swiss Franc is even worse, while Yen is not far behind. On the other hand, Sterling and commodity currencies are trading generally higher, which much help from crosses. Dollar...
Dollar Extended Rally Tapering Talks, Staying Firm
Dollar's rally continued last week as supported by hawkish comments from Fed officials. Expectations for tapering this fall continued to build up. Swiss Franc is trading broadly lower, as the pull back against Euro accelerated. Meanwhile, Australian is also trading lower on poor business confidence data. Focus will turn...
Dollar Digesting Gains Awaiting Fed Speaks, Markets Turned Mixed
Overall markets are mixed today, as Dollar is digesting some of last week's gains, awaiting more guidance from FOMC members regarding tapering. New Zealand and Canadian Dollar are the stronger ones for now. But Australian Dollar is among the weakest together with Euro and Swiss France. Yen and Sterling...
China’s Mild Inflation Paves Way for Further PBOC Easing
Headline CPI eased to +1% y/y in July from +1.1% a month ago. From a month ago, inflation rose +5.3%, compared with +1.8% in June. This suggests that the slowdown in the year-over-year data was mainly due to high base. Food inflation contracted -3.7% y/y, after dropping -1.7% in...
Gold Smashed in Ultra Thin Trading, Dollar Slightly Firmer
While the currency markets are rather quite, big surprise is found in gold price, which smashed to as low as 1684, hitting the lowest level since March. Silver also tumbled to as an eight-month low of 22.5. The move was, for certain, exaggerated by the ultra thin Asian morning....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Expect GBP Futures to Return to Net Long after Hawkish BOE
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 3, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +2 340 contracts to 18 881. Speculative long positions added +1 703 contracts while shorts decreased -637 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Sharply Trimmed Bets on Higher Crude Price
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 3. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -19 237 contracts to 430 527 for the week. Speculative long position declined -17 941 contracts, while shorts increased +1 296 contracts. Net length of WTI crude oil...
Dollar Turned Around While Tapering Talks Heated Up Again
Dollar soared towards the end of the week as the stellar job report should give Fed much confidence to start tapering later in the year. Reactions from stock markets and yields were also positive, with DOW and S&P closing at new records while 10-year yield rebounded. Together with the...
Dollar Jumps as NFP Grew 943k, EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.175 Support
Dollar jumps sharply in early US session after stronger than expected non-farm payroll data. If job growth could sustain at current page in August, more FOMC members would be ready to call for tapering in Q4. Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen are the most responsive to Dollar buying so...
Crude Oil Prone to Record First Fall in 3 Weeks on Delta Variant, China Slowdown and OPEC+’s Deal
Despite recovery, crude oil prices are prone to record the first decline in 3 weeks. The sharp selloff earlier in the week is a result of a confluence of factors including resurgence of the pandemic in the US and China, China’s economic slowdown and OPEC+’s plan to increase output.
The...
Dollar Extending Recovery ahead of Job Data, Aussie Lower on RBA
Dollar is trying to extend this week's recovery in Asian session, as focus turns to non-farm payrolls reports. Whether Fed would start tapering asset purchases by the end of the year, or earlier, would very much depend on the job data in Q3. Elsewhere, Aussie is trading a touch...
BOE Signals Earlier Unwinding of Balance Sheet. Modest Tightening On the Way
The BOE voted unanimously to keep Bank rate at 0.1%, and 7-1 to leave purchases of government bond at 875B pound. While the latter decision came less hawkish than we had anticipated (we expected 2 dissents), British pound got a boost as policymakers hinted about “modest tightening”.
Upgrading Inflation Forecast
The...
Sterling Lifted Slightly after BoE, But Overall Markets Tread Water
Sterling was lifted very briefly after BoE policy decision, but there was again no follow through buying. Dollar also pays little attention to jobless claims. Overall, the markets are staying in consolidative mode, and would probably stay so before tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report. As of now, Kiwi is the...
Dollar Recovered But Lacks Follow Through Buying, Sterling Turns to BoE First
Overall markets were rather mixed for the moment. Dollar's selloff was quickly choked off by strong ISM services overnight, even though there is no clear follow through buying. Traders are holding off the bets for now, awaiting tomorrow's non-farm payroll figures. Sterling will come to the center of the...
Dollar Falls on Big ADP Miss, Gold Surges
US futures turn south after much weaker than expected ADP job data. Yen regains much growth as risk sentiment turn cautious again. Though, as for today, Kiwi and Aussie are still the strongest. Canadian Dollar is currently the worst performing as dragged down by weakness in oil price. Dollar...
BOE Preview – Awaiting Signals to Exit
The focus of this week's BOE is whether the result of the policy review would be revealed. In particular, whether there will be guideline on BOE's exit sequence of QE and record low policy rate. Meanwhile, economic projections in reflection of the economic developments since the June would also...
Kiwi Jumps after Strong Employment Data, Dollar Weakness Continues
Following strong closes in US stocks, Asian markets ex-Japan are trading generally higher. The development helps lift commodity currencies generally higher. In particular, New Zealand Dollar is additionally lifted by much stronger than expected job data. Yen is paring some gains but weak treasury yields is keeping it afloat....
Dollar Back Under Pressure as Swiss Franc Surges Again
Dollar is under some pressure as falling treasury yield is weighing down the greenback. Canadian Dollar is even weaker as WTI oil price breaches 70 handle again. New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the stronger ones but gains are limited. The post RBA lift on Aussie is so far...