Loonie’s Outlook Remains Hinged on Crude Oil Price
Commodity currencies suffered last week but Canadian dollar was the worst performer. Loonie declined -2.93% in the past week, making it the weakest amongst major currency pairs. Other than the broad-based strength in US dollar amidst speculations of early taper by the Fed, the sharp selloff in crude oil...
NZD Rises on Hawkish RBNZ Comments, Euro and Dollar Soft
New Zealand Dollar rises broadly today after a top RBNZ official indicated that the decision to refrain from rate hike was mainly due to communication difficulty. Instead, the central bank is actively considering a 50bps hike. Strong rebound in Asian stocks also supported other commodity currencies, but positive sentiment...
Markets Back on Risk-on Mode, Dollar Selling Slows Slightly
Following another record close in US overnight, Asian markets open generally higher and stay firm. Commodity currencies continue to extend this week's rebound. While Yen and Swiss Franc remain soft, Dollar pull back seems to be slowing slightly. Nevertheless, Dollar selling could come back any time if Gold could...
Dollar Extending Pull Back, Gold Upside Breakout
Markets continue to reverse some of last week's move, as seen in the rebound in European and Asian equities. Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc all turned weaker while commodity currencies strengthened. PMIs from Eurozone and UK are all solid, despite mild pull back. Yet, both are outshone by commodity...
Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Affirming Likelihood of Taper Announcement in November while Striking Balance between Strong Data and Pandemic Resurgence
Following the FOMC minutes, the attention turns to the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. We expect that the Fed would make formal announcement of QE tapering at the November meeting. With a tapering size of US15B at each meeting, the entire QE program would be complete by September...
Dollar Paring Gains as Asian Markets Rebound Despite Poor PMIs
Asian markets are staging a strong rebound today, despite poor economic data out of Japan and Australia. Investors are probably reassessing the timing of Fed's tapering, which would be delayed by the current surge in Delta variant. Meanwhile, China reported zero case of local transmission of COVID-19 for the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies Got Dumped on Hopes of Fed’s Tapering and Resurgence of Pandemic
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 17, NET SHORT of USD index futures dropped -115 contracts to 19 211. Speculative long positions slipped -515 contracts while shorts decreased -400 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures jumped +23 783...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Aversion Trumped Oil, Lifted Precious Metals
Trader trimmed bets on crude oil futures as the outlook has become more uncertain amidst rising coronavirus cases and Fed's tapering in the near future. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 17. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +3 910 contracts...
Sentiments Deteriorated on Delta, China and Fed Tapering
Overall market sentiments deteriorated notably last week, with concerns over the swift spread of Delta variant and return to lockdowns, Fed's tapering and slowdown in China. A softening tone from a Fed hawk on tapering gave sentiment a late lift, but it remained to bee seen if that could...
Canadian Dollar Stays Weak after Retail Sales
Canadian Dollar is trading as the worst performing one today and slightly weaker than expected retail sales data provide little help. Persistent weakness in oil price is weighing down the loonie, together with overall negative sentiment. Overnight development is unchanged that Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are the strongest...
PBOC Left Policy Rate Unchanged. Further Easing Inevitable as Economy Prone to Weaken in Second Half
PBOC left the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85% in July. The inaction does not suggest that the current monetary policy is appropriate. Weakness in economic activities is expected to exacerbate in the second half of the year, thanks to the resurgence of the pandemic and the lingering...
USD, JPY and CHF in Range Against Each Other, AUD and CAD Heavy
Dollar, Swiss Franc and Yen are taking turns to be the strongest, with the greenback having a little upper hand. But they're kept in range against each other. Commodity currencies remain the weakest, with Aussie additionally pressured by strict lockdowns, while Loonie is dragged down by falling oil prices....
Dollar, Yen and Franc in Three-Horse Race as Risk Aversion Intensifies
Selloff in commodity currencies intensifies today as risk sentiment turn sour again. Major European indexes are all in deep red while US futures point to lower open. Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar are taking turns to be the strongest one in a three-horse race. Aussie is so far the...
Dollar Rises Again on Risk Aversion, Aussie Weak after Job Report
Dollar rises broadly again risk sentiment turned sour again. While Yen and Swiss Franc are still firm elsewhere, the greenback has overtaken their top position for the week. Meanwhile, commodity currencies remain the worst performing ones, as led by New Zealand Dollar, closely followed by Australian Dollar. Euro and...
Dollar Digests Gains, Canadian Dollar Recovers Mildly after CPI
Canadian Dollar rises mildly in early US session after stronger than expected consumer inflation reading. But strength of the Loonie is related limited. It remains one of the worst performing for the week, just next to Australian and New Zealand Dollar. Aussie continues to be weighed down by lockdowns...
RBNZ Left OCR Unchanged Amidst Latest Lockdown. Hawkishness Maintained
To everyone’s surprise, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 0.25% in August. The decision was made in light of the renewed New Zealand’s lockdown after a report of one coronavirus case. Policymakers, however, maintained a hawkish stance, suggesting that the next policy decision would be tightening. Meanwhile, the...
Kiwi Jitters after RBNZ Stands Pat, Euro Weakening
Commodity currencies recover mildly in Asian session but remain the worst performing ones for the week. Markets seemed to have priced in RBNZ standing pat well already. New Zealand Dollar recovered very quickly after initial spike following the announcement. On the other hand, Swiss Franc, Yen and to a...
Risk-Off Sentiment Supports Swiss Franc, Yen and Dollar
Souring risk sentiment continues to support Swiss Franc and Yen today, while Dollar is also trying to catch up. Commodity currencies are still the weakest ones. In particular, New Zealand Dollar tumbles on talks that RBNZ could refrain from delivering the highly anticipated rate hike tomorrow, as the country...
Aussie Stays Weak after RBA Minutes, Same as Other Commodity Currencies
Commodity currencies remained generally pressured in Asian session today. While DOW and S&P 500 managed to reverse initial losses to close at new record highs, there is no follow through risk-on sentiment in Asia. Canadian Dollar is additionally weighed down with WTI crude oil dipping below 68 handle. Aussie...
Swiss Franc and Yen Rise as Markets Turn to Risk-Off Mode
Risk aversion is a main theme today, on situation in Afghanistan, poor China data, and spread of Delta virus. Yen and Swiss Franc rise broadly, and to a lesser extent followed by Dollar. Commodity currencies are all in red, in particular with Aussie pressured by increasing pandemic restrictions. On...