RBA Affirmed No Rate Hike Until 2024, Widening Policy Divergence with Counterparts
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.1%, and asset purchases at AUD 4B/month, in October. Despite sharp rise in housing prices, policymakers chose to stick with ultra-easy monetary policy in order to achieve the inflation target and full employment.
The central bank remained cautiously optimistic about the economic...
Aussie Soft after Uneventful RBA, Dollar Recovering after Brief Selloff
Dollar is regaining some ground in Asian session today, as yesterday's selloff was relatively well contained so far. Sterling is also recovering, together with Euro, against others. On the other hand, Australian Dollar turns softer after uneventful RBA rate decision. Other commodity currencies are also weak. Overall markets will...
Swiss Franc Rises Broadly as Dollar and Yen Pare Gains
Swiss Franc is the winner so far today, as Dollar and Yen pare back some of last week's gains. Meanwhile, Euro is also soft after poor investor confidence data. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is following closely as second strongest, on anticipation of RBNZ rate hike later...
Yen to Follow Risk Sentiment, RBA and RBNZ Featured Early in the Week
While some selling pressure is seen in Asian stocks, the forex markets are relatively steady. Canadian Dollar is currently the stronger one, followed by Yen. Sterling is the softer one, followed by Swiss France, Euro and Dollar. Overall risk sentiment will continue to drive the markets this week and...
RBA Preview – To Maintain Rate at Historical Low as Counterparts Begin Tightening
The RBA will maintain all monetary policy measures unchanged at next week’s meeting. That is, the cash rate, as well as the yield target on the April 2024 bond, will stay at 0.1%. Asset purchases will also be kept at a pace of AUD 4B/week. Policymakers will continue to...
Dollar Index Could Be Capped by 94.46 Fibonacci Level as Yields Rally Halts
Dollar had been the strongest for most of the week but lost it first place at the time, as treasury yields retreated. Instead, resilient risk appetite in the US, as well as firm oil price helped Canadian and Australian Dollars stole the first and second place. On the other...
CFTC Commitments of Traders- Bets on Lower Euro Jumped amidst Energy Crisis
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 28, NET LENGTH of USD index futures gained +1 361 contracts to 26 461. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures slumped -11 223 contracts to just 872. Speculative shorts soared remarkably, by +16...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Trimmed on Gas Price after Sharp Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 28, NET LENGTH of crude oil futures jumped +17 836 contracts to 373 814. Increase in speculative longs clearly outweighed that of shorts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for heating oil added +700 contracts to...
Dollar Continues to Pare Gain, Shrugs Higher PCE Inflation
Dollar continues to pare gains in early US session as the week is coming to a close. PCE inflation data is largely ignored by the markets, while Euro also shrugs CPI. Canadian Dollar also ignores smaller than expected GDP contraction. Sterling is leading the way in the rebound, followed...
Yen Rebounds on Steep Selloff in Stocks, ISM and PCE in Focus
Yen recovered much ground as US stocks tumbled steeply overnight. Meanwhile, Dollar remains generally firm, as partly supported by resilient treasury yields. Selling in Euro and Sterling slowed a little bit while commodity currencies are turning softer. ISM manufacturing and PCE inflation will come into spotlight today. But overall...
RBNZ Preview – Rate Hike Cycle Begins
The RBNZ is almost certain to raise the OCR by +25 bps to 0.5% next week. The Funding-For-Lending program (FLP) will stay unchanged at NZ$28B. This should not be affected by the slowdown in economic activities in the third quarter. While cautioning about the uncertainty of the pandemic and...
Selling Focus Turns to Euro as Dollar Digests Gains
As Dollar is digesting this week's yield supported rally today, selling focus is turning to Euro, in particular in crosses. Meanwhile, firmer overall risk sentiment is supporting commodity currencies and Sterling, with Aussie being the stronger one. Yen and Swiss Franc are generally softer on stable risk sentiment.
Technically, as...
Dollar Breaking Key Resistance Levels as Yields Hold Firm
Dollar retreats mildly in Asian session but remains the strongest one over the week. The rally in treasury yields appear to be taking a breather. But 10-year yield is holding firm above 1.54 handle, while 30-year yield is also above 2.0 handle. Canadian is following as the second strongest,...
EUR/USD Breaks Key Support as Dollar Rise Continues
Dollar is generally strong today, but buying focus is temporarily shifted from against Yen to Euro and Sterling. In particular, EUR/USD has taken out key support level at 1.1663. Overall markets are mixed though, with stocks recovering while treasury yields retreat. Yen and Swiss Franc are the stronger ones...
USD/JPY Pressing 110.6/7 as Treasury Yields Extend Rally
Dollar is currently the strongest one for the week so far, as helped by strong rally in treasury yields as well as pull back in stocks. Yen also stays week but the selling in crosses is cushioned by uncertain risk sentiment. Sterling is also soft with eyes on the...
Sterling Tumbles on Energy Worries, Rising Yields Supports Dollar
Sterling tumbles broadly today on increasing talks of energy shortages due to a post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers, as well as a halt to license testing during pandemic lockdowns. Mild risk aversion, which start in European markets, is also weighing down some commodity currencies. Nevertheless, there is little lift...
Yen Crosses Accelerating Upward on Persistent Rally in Treasury Yields
Strong rally in treasury yields is currently the main theme driving the markets. On the back on hawkish Fed rhetorics, 2-year yield rose to 18-month high, above 0.3%. Benchmark 10-year yield also breaks above 1.5% handle. Yen is currently the worst performing one, with persistent selling pressure. Euro and...
European Gas Price Triples amidst Supply Disruption and Rising Demand
European gas price has kept breaking new records over the past months. Both higher-than-usual demand and supply shortage have led to the price strength. As winter is approaching, we expect price to remain at elevated levels in the months to come.
The front-month Dutch TTF gas contract has remained firm...
Dollar Mildly Higher after Durable Goods Orders, Sterling Advancing in Crosses
Dollar trades mildly higher in early US session, lifted by stronger than expected durable goods orders data. But it's being overwhelmed by both Sterling and Aussie. Commodity currencies are firmer on "stable" market sentiment, but there is no follow through buy yet, including Canadian Dollar. On the other hand,...
Canadian Dollar Rises Together With Oil, Euro Shrugs German Election
Canadian Dollar leads commodity currencies higher in Asian session, with help from extended rally in oil price. Overall sentiment is mixed though and Yen is trying to pare back some of last week's losses. Some weakness in seen in both European majors and Dollar but movements in respective pairs...