Dollar and Yen Down But Not Out (Yet) in Pre-Holiday Trading
Yen and Dollar are currently the weakest ones for the week, but both are bounded inside last week's range against most other currencies. The development is in line with the stock markets, where major US indexes closed higher overnight, but stayed in range too. Australian and New Zealand Dollar...
Sterling Surges, Loonie Dives in Quiet Markets
Sterling and Euro are trading broadly higher today, together with Aussie. On the other hand, Yen and Dollar are both under some selling pressure. Rebound in Europe yield is a factor in driving the markets. We'll see if there is further rally in stocks before holidays that could push...
Yen Weakens as Stocks and Oil Rebound
Yen dropped broadly overnight as US stocks rebounded and stays soft in Asian session. Canadian Dollar also pare back some losses as WTI crude oil recovered back above 70 handle. But overall markets are generally mixed in holiday mood. Euro is currently the strongest for the week, followed by...
Risk Sentiment Flip-Flops, Canadian Dollar Shrugs Retail Sales
Risk sentiment continues to flip-flop in pre-holiday markets. Major European indexes and US futures are trading slightly higher. Swiss Franc, Yen and Dollar are all trading generally lower, while Kiwi and Aussie are trading higher with Sterling. Canadian Dollar appears to be getting little support from better than expected...
PBOC Cut Policy Rate as Economic Recovery Hampered by Pandemic and Power Shortage
China is going against the global tide of normalization of monetary policy. The PBOC announced to cut the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by -5 bps to 3.8%, first time April 2020. This, together with the reduction in RRR and increase RRR on foreign currencies earlier this month, indicates...
Yen Mildly Lower as Asia Rebounds, Canadian Dollar in Weak Recovery
Yen trades mildly lower today, as Asian markets recover despite the steep fall in US overnight. Swiss Franc and Dollar are also soft. On the other hand, commodity currencies are all recovering mildly, but momentum is weak. Overall, the forex markets are still hesitating to break out from recent...
Risk Aversion Continues, Canadian Dollar Follows Oil Lower
Commodity currencies are under broad-based pressure today, as markets are trading in risk-off mode on the spread of Omicron. Canadian Dollar is leading the way lower as WTI oil tumbles below 70. But Euro and Swiss Franc are currently the main beneficiaries, followed by Yen. Dollar and Sterling are...
Asia Starts With Risk-off Sentiment, Yen Crosses Take a Dive
A holiday shortened week starts will risk-off sentiment. Selloff in notable in Japan with Nikkei back below 28k handle, while HK HSI also hits the lowest level this year. In the currency markets, Yen is currently the strongest one for today, followed by Euro and Swiss Franc. On the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – EUR and GBP Failed to Gain Strength after Policy Announcements
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 14, NET LENGTH of USD index futures fell -3 624 contracts to 31 241. Speculative long positions slipped -795 contracts but shorts gained +2 829 contracts. NET SHORT of EUR futures rose +3 580 contracts...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Rally in Gold Price should Lead to Rebound in Net Long Next Week
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 14, NET LENGTH of crude oil futures slumped -20 095 contracts to 347 137. Speculative longs declined -9 352 contracts while shorts gained +10 743 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for heating oil dropped...
Dollar Stands Tall after A Week of Central Bank Surprises
It was a very volatile week full of central bank surprises. Fed indicated that there would be as many as three rate hikes next year. BoE surprised by raising the Bank Rate. Even ECB turned out to be less dovish as expected. But in the end, if was the...
Yen Rises as Investors Back in Risk Averse Mode
Investors are back in risk-off mode after a week of volatility. Yen is rising broadly, followed by Swiss Franc and Dollar. On the other hand, commodity currencies are back under some pressure. Euro and Sterling are both mixed. The question is whether pre-weekend selloff in stocks would intensify and...
Gold Back above 1800, EUR/USD Still Ranging in Mixed Markets
Overall markets are rather mixed so far, as guided by the volatile risk sentiment. There is no clear follow through moves in the markets. Sterling is the strongest one for the week so far, after the surprised BoE rate hike. But Swiss Franc is the second strongest, as helped...
ECB Reduces PEPP Purchases, Upgrades Inflation forecasts
The ECB meeting came largely in line with expectations. While leaving the policy rates unchanged, the members confirmed that the PEPP program would end in March 2022. Meanwhile, they have extended the reinvestment process and topped up the APP program, as means to continuously provide liquidity to the market....
Sterling Surges after BoE Rate Hike, Euro Catching Up after ECB
Sterling rises broadly after BoE surprised the markets by raising interest rates and maintains a hawkish tone. Solid risk-on sentiment as well as strong job data boosts Aussie as the second strongest. Euro is not performing badly after ECB announces to end PEPP net purchases in March. Indeed, the...
BOE Hikes Bank Rate, Surprising the Market Two Months in a Row
The BOE surprised the market in two consecutive months. After failing to deliver rate hike in November, the members surprisingly increased the Bank rate by +15 bps to 0.25% in December. Concerns over elevated trumped Omicron variant uncertainty. British pound rallied against US dollar and the euro.
The members voted...
Dollar’s Post FOMC Rally Choked Off by Risk-On Sentiment; ECB, BoE and SNB Next
Dollar initially surged after Fed decided to double tapering pace and indicated there could be as many as three rate hikes next year. Nevertheless, the rally attempted was choked off by strong risk-on rally in stocks. Investors seemed to be relieved that firstly, Fed is still cautious on the...
Hawkish Fed Anticipates Three or More Rate Hikes Next Year
FOMC delivered a hawkish outlook at the December meeting. Besides doubling the size of tapering as we had anticipated, more than two-third of the members have projected at least 3 rate hikes next year. The latest economic projections suggest that inflation could rise to +5.3% this year before easing....
US Crude Oil and Petroleum Inventory Unexpectedly Dropped
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -15.87 mmb to 1210.49 mmb in the week ended December 10. Crude oil inventory dropped -4.58 mmb to 428.29 mmb, compared with consensus of a +0.82 mmb increase....
Dollar Mixed after Weak Retail Sales, Fed Next
Dollar is trading mixed in early US session after weaker than expected retail sales data. The greenback is extending recent rally against Canadian, but pulls back against Australian. European majors are mixed while Yen is also trading a touch weaker. Other markets are quite too with Gold's selloff taking...