Action Insight

Risk aversion remains the main theme in the markets. Commodity currencies remain the weakest ones while Yen is staying firm. Dollar trades mildly higher but there is no follow through buying yet. RBNZ rate decision triggered a brief recovery in New Zealand Dollar but Kiwi is quickly back under pressure. Selloff in stocks seem to have stabilized though, with Nikkei hovering in tight range in red today, down around -0.15%. Gold is hovering between 1280/5 after yesterday's rally and is waiting for fresh inspiration. US-North Korea tension will remain the main focus today while data from UK and US will catch most attention.

As expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75%. Governor Wheeler reiterated that the monetary policy would remain accommodative for some time. The staff projection continued to forecast the first rate hike to come in 2H19. They also revised lower the short term inflation outlook and intensified the warning that a lower currency is needed for growth. NZDUSD jumped to a 3-day high of 0.7371 after the announcement, but gains were erased afterwards.

Yen and Swiss Franc remain the strongest major currencies today with US-North Korean tensions as the main theme of the markets. Japan Nikkei suffered steep selloff today by losing -1.29% to close at 19738.71. Major European indices follow with FTSE down -0.8%, DAX down -1.5% and CAC down -1.8% at the time of writing. Among the currencies, risk sensitive Aussie and Canadian Dollar are hardest hit, followed by Sterling and Euro. Risk aversion pushes gold to as high as 1282.4 so far today as recent rebound resumes. WTI continues to tread water between 48.5 and 49.0.

China's trade and inflation data surprised to the downside in July, likely drive by the government's targeted tightening monetary policy. GDP growth is expected to slow in second half of the year. Yet, given the strong readings in the first half, with the economy expanding +6.9% in both the first and second quarters, GDP growth should be able to meet government's target of “around +6.5%”. We believe the government would continue its tightening monetary policy in order to prevent and resolve systematic risks, and to curb excessive strength in property prices. Meanwhile, as ultra accommodative monetary policies across major central banks are coming to an end, with the Fed and BOC raising interest rates, while ECB will begin discussing reduction of asset purchases, it would be detrimental to the renminbi if the central bank pledges to maintain monetary easing. This would exacerbate capital outflow from China.

Yen surges broadly together with Swiss Franc as there are renewed focus on the tension between US and North Korea. US President warned overnight that North Korea "best not make any more threats to the United States". And, Trump said that "they will be met with fire, fury and, frankly, power the likes of which this world has never seen before." That's in response to North Korea's claim that it's ready to give US a "severe lesson". And North Korea claim that it's examining plans to strike US territory Guam. Analysts perceived Trump's response as aggressive. The comments sent DOW down to closed -0.15% lower at 22085.34, comparing to intraday high at 22179.11. USD/JPY breached 109.83 and is resuming recent decline from 114.49.

Sterling suffers renewed selling in generally quiet markets today. EUR/GBP is extending recent rise to as high as 0.9080 so far. GBP/USD is set to test on 1.3 handle. GBP/JPY is the biggest mover today as also affected by broad based rebound in yen. GBP/JPY's break of 144.01 near term support now opens up deeper fall to trend line support at around 142.00. Staying in the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar remains the weakest one as markets anticipate a dovish RBNZ statement later in the week. Canadian Dollar is the second weakest one as WTI crude oil continues to struggle to regain 50 handle. Euro is maintaining its status as the strongest one for the week while Dollar is mixed.

The broad-based selloff of Swiss franc of late has raised speculations of renewed SNB intervention. Yet, the latest release of FX reserve and sight deposit data suggest that it was unlikely the cause. We believe franc's depreciation, especially against the euro was mainly driven by yield differential as the ECB is approaching tapering of its asset purchase program while the SNB maintained the pledge to fight against deflation. EURUSD soared over +4% over the past two weeks while USDCHF gained about +3% during the period. The recent risk-on mode in the financial market has also raised franc's appeal as funding currency, thereby exacerbating its decline.

Dollar trades generally lower today after cautious comments from Fed officials. But New Zealand Dollar is even weaker as markets are preparing themselves for a dovish RBNZ rate statement later in the week. At the same time, weak China data is weighing on Aussie. Canadian Dollar also continues to pare back recent gains and as oil consolidates ahead of the release of the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting statement. Euro, Yen and Sterling are so far the relatively firmer ones, with Euro having an upper hand. The economic calendar is rather light for today and trading could remain subdued in summer mood.

Dollar is trying to regain momentum against most major currencies entering into US session, except versus Euro and Swiss Franc USD/CAD takes the earlier today by breaking last week's high. GBP/USD follows closely by taking out last week's low. Meanwhile Euro is so far trading firm against others. In particular, EUR/GBP is also resuming last week's rally and breaches 0.9050. Commodity currencies are trading generally soft today. In other markets, gold continues to hover in tight range between 1260/5. WTI crude oil's sideway consolidation extends and dips below 49 handle. Oil will take some more time to consolidate before having another attempt on 50 handle.

The financial markets are trading in risk-on mode as another week starts, boosted by last week's record run in US equities. In addition to being supported by the set of solid job data, comments from White House economic adviser Gary Cohn also provided some optimism to investors. Nonetheless, in the currency markets, Dollar has turned into consolidative mode instead and is waiting for fresh inspirations. Euro, on the other hand, is regaining some growth. New Zealand Dollar and Yen are trading as the weakest ones so far. In other markets, gold failed to stand firm above 1280 handle last week and retreated on Dollar's rebound. it's hovering in tight range of 1260/5 for the moment. WTI crude oil is also struggling to regain momentum for another attempt of 50 handle yet.

Dollar staged a strong rebound towards the end of the week as boosted by an overall set of solid job data. While the greenback still ended lower against Euro for the week, it's now looking likely that the greenback has found a short term bottom already. It's still early to confirm a trend reversal for Dollar yet. And we believe the key lies in the yet to be confirmed fiscal policy of US President Donald Trump. But for now, Dollar will probably gyrate higher in the early part of this week until CPI release on Friday. On the other hand, while Euro ended the week as the strongest currency, its rallies against Dollar, Yen and even Swiss Franc are starting to look tired. Sterling ended the week generally lower after markets perceived the BoE Super Thursday as a dovish one. But commodity currencies were even weaker with Canadian Dollar starting to pare back the strong gains in the past two months.

Dollar is given a lift in early US session by a set of overall solid employment. After initial hesitation, the greenback is gaining some upside momentum with GBP/USD dropping through 1.3096 minor support. USD/CHF also breaks last week's high at 0.9726 to resume rebound from 0.9347. Focus will now turn to 110.97 minor resistance in USD/JPY and break there will indicate near term bottoming. EUR/USD, though, stays firm above 1.1722 minor support and it's near term bullishness remains relatively safe.

Focus of the market will turn back to US economic data today. Economists expect non-farm payroll to show 180k growth in the US job markets in July, down from prior month's 222k. Unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow solidly by 0.3% mom. Looking at other employment related data, ADP private job growth slowed to 178k in the same month, down from 191k. Nonetheless, the three month average of ADP rose 10k from 191k to 201k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing dropped to 55.2, down from 57.2. Employment component of ISM services also dropped to 53.6, down from 57.8. Initial jobless claims were steady though, with four month average improved from 244k to 242k. Conference board consumer confidence also rose from 117.3 to 121.1. Other employment related data were mixed in general. Also from US, trade balance will be released.

The BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.25%, the government bond purchases at 435B pound and corporate bond purchases at 10B pound. As we had anticipated, the members voted 6-2 to leave the interest rate unchanged with the newcomer Silvana Tenreyo supporting to maintain the status quo. Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders continued to believe a +25 bps rate is needed. Sterling slumped after the announcement as the central bank downgraded the growth and wage forecasts. Governor Mark Carney warned that Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the country's economic outlook.

Sterling tumbles sharply as markets perceive BoE announce as a rather dovish one. BoE left monetary policy unchanged at widely expected. Bank rate is held at 0.25% and asset purchase target at GBP 435b. The rate decision came with 6-2 vote as generally expected. Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders maintained their push for a 25bps hike. Chief economist Andy Haldane, who sounded hawkish recently, didn't vote for a hike. New comer Silvana Tenreyro didn't follow her predecessor Kristin Forbes and, voted for unchanged.

An increasingly provocative North Korea is testing the limit of US' patience. Following another test of ICBM missile last Thursday, US President Donald Trump has accelerated sanctions against the hermit Kingdom. He has also pledged to give China a difficult time on trade amidst the latter's lack of pressure against North Korea's nuclear developments. Although intensifying geopolitical tensions might increase volatility of the financial markets, we believe the chance of war remains remote as the provocations-sanctions-negotiations process is indeed a routine of the Korean Peninsula problem over the past decades.

Sterling is trading as the second strongest currency for the week so far, next to Euro, as markets await BoE Super Thursday. While monetary is widely expected to be unchanged, the vote split and inflation report will catch all attention from the markets. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are generally lower even though risk appetite remains firm in the stock markets. DOW extended its record run and closed up 0.24% at 2201.24, above 22k handle. US treasury yields were mixed with 10 year yield closed up 0.011 at 2.262. In other markets, Gold dipped notably and is trading below 1270. WTI crude oil recovered after a steep dip earlier this week to below 48.50. WTI is currently trading at 49.4 and struggles to regain 50 handle.

Dollar is steady in early US session and is little affected by job data miss. The ADP employment report showed 178k growth in private sector jobs in July, below expectation of 190k. DOW futures also stay steady and the index could have a go at 22000 handle today as recent rally extends. Non-farm payroll to be released on Friday is a key event to watch. And it's expected to show 180k growth overall in July.

Yen falls sharply in Asian session on risk appetite flows. Strong earnings from Japanese companies lifted Nikkei back above 20000 handle as the index is trading up 0.6% at the time of writing. That followed another record close in DOW overnight, at 21963.92, up 0.33%. Euro is benefiting most from the developments, in particular, with EUR/JPY finally taking out 130.76 resistance to resume recent rally. Markets will have an eye on German DAX today, which rebound by 1.1% yesterday. That mark the complete of a recent correction and if that's the case, strength in DAX would likely support the Euro further. Meanwhile, Dollar also recovers mildly today, against most except Euro as markets await ADP private employment data from US. Talking about employment, New Zealand Dollar is trading as the weakest one as dragged down by Q2 job data.

We expect BOE to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.25% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound at the upcoming meeting. The vote split might probably come in at 6-2 from 5-3 in June, as Silvana Tenreyro, successor of Kristin Forbes appears less hawkish and noted that the monetary policy decision would be data-dependent. Members favoring a rate hike were mainly hinged on the fact that inflation has been overshooting the central bank's target. However, there was a sign of slowdown on the consumer price level in June, offering room for policymakers to stand on the sideline amidst lackluster economic growth and wage, as well as uncertainty in Brexit negotiations.