Action Insight

Despite stellar report of job growth, Dollar fails to secure upside momentum so far due to sluggish wage growth. Non-farm payrolls report showed 313k growth in February, much better than expectation of 205k. Prior month's figure was also revised up from 200k to 239k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at...

The greenback emerged as a winner after most of the the event risks this week and is staying firm in Asian session. In particular, Euro's selloff after just slightly less dovish than expected ECB provides much support to the Dollar. And the greenback paid little reaction while US President...

Surprising to most market participants, ECB dropped the easing bias in the forward guidance. While this had initially sent the euro slightly higher, it reversed as President Mario Draghi reinforced that the act was 'backward looking' and would not affect future monetary decision making. Policymakers remained confident over the...

Euro is initially short up as ECB turned a bit less dovish in the statement after keeping monetary policy unchanged. However, the common currency cannot extend gains as there is no follow through buying. More importantly, ECB President Mario Draghi tries to tone down the significance of the change...

The financial markets show that investors are well prepared for the steel and aluminum tariff by the US. Dow closed down just -0.33% overnight, at 24801.36. 10 year yield gained 0.006 to 2.883, staying in near term sideway consolidation. Nikkei is trading up 0.5% at the time of writing...

As widely anticipated, BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.25% in March. The accompanying statement was more cautious than the previous one, over the trade outlook. Policymakers suggested that 'trade policy developments are an important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks', in addition...

Dollar is trying to regain some ground in early US session after better than expected job data. But momentum of the greenback is so far very week. Dollar suffered some selling on news of White House top economic advisor Gary Cohn's resignation, due to his opposition to President Donald...

Dollar is broadly pressured on news of White House economic advisor Gary Cohn's resignation. The dollar index dipped to as low as 89.42 and staying below 90 handle. EUR/USD is staying comfortably back above 1.24 and is set to have a take on 1.2555 key resistance. Meanwhile, USD/JPY might...

Kiwi and Aussie are leading the way higher in the currency markets as risk appetite returns. On the other hand, Yen and Dollar are trading as the weakest ones today. Markets are increasing getting convinced that US President Donald Trump will back off from his steel and aluminum tariffs....

Market sentiments improved as some considered US President Donald Trump's threat of trade war is merely a "political show". And pressures from the Republicans and business executives will eventually force him to back down. DOW closed up 336.7 pts or 1.37% at 24874.76. S&P 500 also rebounded 29.69 pts...

As widely anticipated, RBA left the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% in March. A cooling property market signals that further rate hike is less urgent. On top of the central bank’s agenda has returned to boosting inflation and employment. In 2017, Australia’s CPI averaged at 1.9% while the unemployment...

Canadian Dollar suffers steep selling today as US President Donald Trump singles out Canada and Mexico in his trade war rhetorics. He said in a tweet that "NAFTA, which is under renegotiation right now, has been a bad deal for U.S.A. Massive relocation of companies & jobs." And, "tariffs...

The forex markets are pretty steady in Asian session as an extremely busy week starts. Reactions to Italy election and Germany SPD vote on grand coalition were muted. Euro remains steady so far, staying as the second strongest major currency for the month after Yen. Canadian Dollar and Australian...

The theme of trade wars overwhelmed the global financial markets last week and overshadowed any other topics. It started on news that US President Donald Trump is going to impose tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. Trump then doubled down by tweeting "trade wars...

Risk aversion continues to be the main theme today as US President Donald Trump declared that trade wars are good. At the time of writing, German DAX is trading down -2.2%, French CAC down -1.9% and UK FTSE down -1.1%. That follows -2.5% decline in Japanese Nikkei. US futures are pointing to triple digit decline in DOW at open. In the currency markets, Dollar is suffering steep selling against Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc. Nonetheless, commodity currencies are even weaker with Canadian Dollar leading the way down.

The broader markets responded very negatively to US President Donald Trump's push for steel and aluminum import tariffs. DOW closed down -420 pts or -1.68% at 24608.98, breaking key near term support at 24792.99. S&P 500 lost -36.16 pts or -1.33% to close at 2677.67, breaking equivalent support at 2697.77. NASDAQ, the relatively stronger one recently, also dropped -92.45 pts or -1.27% to close at 7180.56, confirming failure below 7505.77 record high. Treasury yields also suffered with 10 year yield dropping -0.064 to 2.80. It looks like TNX has already topped below 3% handle. Asian markets follow with Nikkei losing over -500 pts or -2.3% at the time of writing. Hong Kong HSI is down -430 pts or -1.4%.

Dollar is trying to ride on strong job data to extend recent rally. Initial jobless claims dropped 10k to 210k, lower than expectation of 226k. That's the lowest level in nearly five decades since December 1969. Four week moving average dropped to 220.5k, also the lowest since 1969. Continuing claims rose 57k to 1.93m in the week ended February 17. Personal income rose 0.4% in January, above expectation of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 0.2%, in line with expectation. Headline PCE was unchanged at 1.7% yoy, core PCE unchanged at 1.5% yoy. Both met expectation. Also released, Canada current account deficit narrowed to CAD -16.4b in Q4. Focus will turn to round two of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony.

China's official PMIs surprised to the downside in February. Manufacturing PMI dropped -1 point to 50.3 in February, while non-manufacturing PMI slipped -0.9 point to 54.4. The readings came in weaker than expectations of 52.1 and 55 respectively. The Caixin manufacturing index released earlier today, however, increased to...

Yen overtakes Dollar as the strongest major currency for the week so far as helped by risk aversion. DOW dropped -380.83 or -1.5% overnight to close at 25022.42. That also marked the first monthly decline after a 10 month winning streak. All markets will turn their focus to round two of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony. But seen as being a straight forward person, he's not expected to alter his messages that rocked the markets two days ago.

Sterling is trading as the weakest major currency today. Fresh selling is seen on strong comments from EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. That came as European commission published its own draft Brexit withdrawal treaty. The document highlighted, in Barnier's words "significant divergences" between UK and EU. Yen is trading as the strongest for the day, thanks to risk aversion. But Dollar is still the strongest for the week. The greenback was boosted by upbeat comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Technically, EUR/USD is now finally pressing trend defining 1.2205 key support. This level will be the major focus in US session.