CFTC Commitments of Traders: Gold and Silver Turned to Net Shorts
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 14, gold and silver futures surprisingly recorded NET SHORTS, as traders expected prices to weaken further. NET SHORT for for the former was 3 688 contracts, compared with NET LENGTH of 12 688 contracts in the...
Trade War Back as Main Theme as Turkish Crisis Eased, US and China to Meet
The forex markets turned into consolidative mode last week as Dollar and Yen lost momentum. Turkish currency crisis hit a climax on Monday but worries eased after the government's measures were well taken by investors. The fear of extra sanctions by the US on Turkey caused some jitters. But...
Canadian Dollar Surges on Strong Inflation, Yen Strong on Risk Aversion
Canadian Dollar makes a massive strike back as boosted by very strong inflation reading. The Loonie is now trading as the biggest gainer for today. While Yen's no.1 place is taken, it's staying the second strongest as supported by risk aversion. Dollar is trading as the weakest one for...
Hong Kong Government is to Blame for the Economic Deadlock, as HKMA Intervened Again
Sharp moderation of Hong Kong GDP growth in 2Q18 and the recent intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to prevent HKD from weakening below 7.85 against USD have once again revealed the challenge facing Hong Kong – a economy highly dependent on China and a monetary policy...
Dollar and Yen Staying in Shallow Consolidation Despite Massive Stock Rebound
The strong stock rallies in the US generally carry through to Asian session. At the time of writing, Nikkei is up trading up 0.45%, Hong Kong HSI up 0.58%, Singapore Strait Times up 0.52%. That followed the impressive 1.58% rebound in DOW overnight, with S&P 500 gained 0.79% and...
Yen and Dollar Not in Reversal Yet, Low Expectation on US-China Trade Talks
The forex markets are clearly in consolidation mode today. Yen and Dollar trades broadly lower as they digest recent gains. But Canadian Dollar is, at the time of writing, the weakest one. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest one on receding risk aversion. While sentiments could...
Yen and Dollar Pare Gains as US-China Trade Talk to Resume
While the financial markets are staying in risk averse mode generally, two development helped stabilized sentiments mildly. Firstly, Qatar offered to inject investments in Turkey as an act of "friendship". The news helped lifted DOW from day low of 24965.77 to close at 25162.41, just down -0.54%. Secondly, China...
US Oil Price Plunged to 2-Month Low as Inventory Surprisingly Surged
The front-month WTI crude oil contract slumped over 3% to settle at the lowest level in 2 months. This was the driven by the risk-off sentiment amidst Turkish crisis and the surprising increase in US inventory. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude...
Dollar Surges on Strong Retail Sales, But Yen Even Stronger on Risk Aversion
Dollar jumps higher in early US session as supported by strong retail sales data. But the greenback is once again outshone by Yen on risk aversion. At the time of writing, DAX is down -1.22%, CAC is down -1.19% and FTSE is down -1.17%. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei lost...
Dollar Power Higher as Renewed Selloff in China Yuan Weighs on Sentiments
Renewed selloff in the Chinese Yuan weighs down sentiments across Asia and boosts the greenback today. USD/CHN breaks recent high at 6.912 to resume up trend. With that, China Shanghai SSE is trading down -2.31% at the time of writing. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.52%, Singapore Strait Times...
No Rebound in Euro and Sterling after Mixed Data, Yen Retreat Continues
Some important economic data were released during the European session. But they provide little lift to Euro and Sterling. In particular, even though UK unemployment rate dropped to 43 year low, deceleration wage growth gives no pressure to BoE to hike again soon. German economic sentiment improved but still...
Impacts of Turkish Turmoil on Eurozone Limited. Yet, Market Sentiment is Contagious
Selloff in Turkish lira and euro has stabilized but the worst is not yet over. As we mentioned in the previous report, the ultimate reason for lira’s slide is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's failed economic and monetary policy. The Turkish central bank TCMB, since his re-election as the President, ...
Dollar Ready to Take Control from Yen While Sentiments Remains Vulnerable
The forex markets are rather steady today. Turkish turmoil seemed to have passed its climax for the near term. Swiss Franc and Yen are trading lower as that part of risk aversion receded. Meanwhile, New Zealand, Canadian and Australian Dollar are generally higher, together with Sterling. Though, it remains...
Chinese Growth Continued to Shrink in July, Despite Stimulus Measures
July’s data showed that China’s economic growth continued to decelerate although the government has loosened its policy. All key economic activity indicators missed expectations for the month.
Industrial production grew +6% y/y, after a sharp slowdown in June and missing consensus of +6.3%. The moderation has been revealed in the...
Reactions to Rumor of Releasing American Pastor Shows Markets Ready for a Bounce
With a near empty economic calendar, the focus is entirely on development in Turkey. Turkish central bank's announcements did calm the markets. While USD/TRY breached 7.2 earlier, it dipped to as low as 6.4136 after CBRT's announcement. At the time of writing, it's back at 6.9 with an eye...
Turkish Lira Calmed by CBRT Announcements, But Stays Vulnerable
Turkish Lira continues to be the dominant theme in the financial markets today. The efforts by the government seemed to have calmed the markets a bit, in particular after CBRT's announcements. But at the time of writing, USD/TRY is still up more than 4% today at around 6.7. It's...
Traders Deepened Bets on Higher US Dollar; Long Positions for Safe Haven Currencies Might Turn Positive Next Week on Heightened Geopolitics
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 7, speculative long positions increased +1 039 contracts in USD index futures, while shorts dropped -607 contracts, resulting in an increase in NET LENGTH to 30 102 contracts for the week.
For European currencies, traders...
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Gold Lost Safe Asset Appeal
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 7, traders turned less bullish towards the energy complex. They trimmed bets for crude oil and heating oil futures, while raising short positions on gasoline futures. Net LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -4 473 contracts...
Looking Through the Turkish Currency Crisis, Dollar is Strong Anyway
It was one of those wild week in the financial markets with a number of market moving themes. New Zealand Dollar was the worst performing one after RBNZ made itself clear that interest rate is going to stay low for longer. And the next move could either be up...
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc Surge as Turkish Crisis Prompts Flight to Safety
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are trading as the strongest ones today as supported by solid safe haven flow. The free fall in Turkish Lira raised concerns of contagion to Eurozone financial system. Such worries sends the Euro broadly lower, even though Australian Dollar performs even worse. Crisis speech...