SNB Downgraded Inflation Forecast for Switzerland, Pledged to Curb Franc’s Strength
SNB left target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at between -1.25% and -0.25%, and maintained a dovish tone. Apart from pledging to intervene the “highly valued” Swiss franc, the central bank downgraded its inflation forecasts. However, this appears to have added limited selling pressure to franc, as both...
Dovish Fed, Recession Risks, Prolonged Trade War, Brexit Fatigue
Dollar tumbled sharply overnight as FOMC economic projected turned out to be much more dovish than expected. Selling continues today, in particular against the Japanese Yen, which is lifted broadly on after the sharp decline in US treasury yields, in response to FOMC. While stock markets are just mixed,...
Fed Turns Even More Dovish in March – Downgrading Economic Outlook, Pausing Rate Hike Cycle, Ending Balance Sheet Reduction
The Fed has turned more dovish than previously expected. Besides downgrading the economic assessments at the policy statement, the members now expect no change in interest rate this year, followed by one rate hike in 2020. They also revised lower the economic projections and decided to terminate the balance...
Huge Decline in US Crude Oil Inventory Supports Prices
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined 12.64 mmb to 1221.85 mmb in the week ended March 15. Crude oil inventory plunged -9.59 mmb to 439.48 mmb (consensus: +0.31 mmb). Inventories declined in 2 out...
Sterling Dives as Markets Disapprove May’s Short Brexit Extension, Dollar Mixed ahead of FOMC
Sterling suffers another round of selloff today as the markets clearly disapprove of UK Prime Minister Theresa May's next step on Brexit. In short, she's just seeking a short delay until June 30. But any date beyond May 23, when EU elections take place, is already rejected back on...
Dollar Higher But Gain Limited by Risks of FOMC Dovishness
Dollar trade generally higher today as markets await FOMC rate decision. But gain is very limited as traders are guarding against unexpected dovishness in Fed. In particular, such dovishness could be embedded in the new economic projections. Meanwhile, Swiss Franc is the second strongest for today, followed by Euro....
OPEC+ Unity Not as Strong as What the Headline Shows
At the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend, the members hoorayed for the compliance to the production cut deal, which is expected to reduced output by 1.2M bpd for 6 months through June. As noted in the accompanied statement, “overall conformity reached almost 90%” in February, up from 83% in...
German ZEW Lifts Stocks & Yield But Not Euro, Sterling Still Range Bound
The forex markets are having no clear direction for the moment. In particular, positive data from Europe were generally ignored by currencies even though yields and stocks are lifted. At the same time, there is no clarity regarding Brexit after Commons Speaker John Bercow ruled out meaningful vote on...
BOE Preview – Staying Cautious Despite Temporary Bounce in Economic Data. Brexit Uncertainty Remains
BOE would leave the Bank rate at 0.75% in March. Despite the bounce in the January data, the members would still remain cautious as global economic slowdown remains a key theme of this year. Meanwhile, the members would maintain a cautious outlook over Brexit uncertainty, especially the UK parliament...
Sterling Confused by Brexit Chaos, Australian Dollar Lower on House Price
The financial markets are generally quiet in Asian session today, with stock indices stuck in tight range. Sterling turned mixed after knee-jerk reactions to new Brexit chaos overnight. The Pound is probably as clueless the UK government on what's next for Brexit. Australian Dollar pares back some of this...
Sterling Softens as Traders Await Brexit Clarity, Aussie Lost Momentum after Initial Rally
Sterling is trading as the weakest one for today so far after suffering some selling in European session. No support is seen for the Pound even though high profile Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg indicated that he might support Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. However, loss is limited in Sterling...
Australian Dollar Surges as Asian Stocks Rally. Fed, SNB and BoE to Meet This Week
Strong rally in Chinese stocks is lifting Asian markets broadly higher today. Chinese president Xi Jinping is set to visit Italy, France and Monaco from March 21 to 26 this week. While there's no detail on the visits yet, it's believed that there could be signing of an agreement...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Rising USD Rose ahead of FOMC Meeting
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 12, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained as increase in longs outweighed that of shorts. With the exception of NZD, all major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. Speculative longs on USD index gained +3...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Crude Oil Price Increased as Shorts Trimmed Sharply
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 12, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +13 464 contracts to 362 265 for the week. Speculative long positions added +2 513 contracts while shorts slumped -10 951. Crude oil prices strengthened last week. Yet,...
With No Clarity on Brexit and Trade War Yet, Focus Will Turn to FOMC Projections
Sterling ended last week as the strongest one as no-deal Brexit is now politically ruled out. But it should be noted that the path forward remains unclear, as least for a few more days. Thus, the upside breakout of Sterling was indecisive. The Pound has indeed closed below recent...
Markets Mixed ahead of Weekend, Lack Direction
The forex markets turned mixed ahead of weekend as there is a lack of theme driving the moves. Swiss France turned weakest global stock markets jump mildly. Canadian Dollar is the second weakest as WTI crude oil retreats sharply ahead of 60 handle. Sterling is the third weakest as...
FOMC Preview: Fed to Maintain Dovish Tone and Announce Plan to End Balance Sheet Reduction
At the upcoming FOMC meeting, the members would vote to leave the Fed funds rate target at 2.25-2.5%. We expect reinforcement of the dovish message conveyed in January. The focus is on the plan to complete the reduction of its balance sheet, which peaked at US$ 4.5 trillion in...
Yen Lower on Asian Stocks Rally, BoJ Notes Weakness in Exports
Risk appetite is having a mild comeback in Asia today and commodity currencies are taking advantage of that. Meanwhile, Yen, Dollar and Sterling are also soft. The greenback shrugs off strong rebound in treasury yields overnight. Yen is weighed down mildly by BoJ's downgrade on exports outlook. Meanwhile, Sterling...
Sterling Mixed as UK Will Decide on Brexit Delay, Aussie Dragged Down by China
Sterling turns mixed as markets await yet another vote about Brexit in the Commons today. MPs is now given a chance to vote for delaying Brexit beyond March 29. The question is whether it would be a short delay with a plan, a short delay without a plan, or...
Sterling Spiked Higher as No-Deal Brexit Ruled Out, Aussie Weighed Down By Chinese Data
Sterling spiked higher overnight after UK Commons voted to reject no-deal Brexit. But there was no follow through buying as the Pound settles back into familiar range quickly. It's indeed the weakest one for today so far, paring some of the gains. Focus will now turn to vote on...