Fears of global recession intensify after shockingly poor German manufacturing data. Major European indices are all trading in red while DOW is down more than 100 pts at initial trading. More importantly, German 10-year bund yield turns negative for the first time since 2016. The most accurate indicator of...
After some roller coaster rides, Sterling is trading broadly higher for today after EU approved a short Brexit extension for UK. But overall, the Pound remains the weakest one for the week. Delaying the "cliff edge" by two weeks is just giving the economy a breather. The problem is...
Dollar is trying to recover some of the steep losses triggered by much more dovish than expected FOMC economic projections. The greenback is now trading mixed for the day, and it's indeed up against Sterling and Canadian for the week. Free fall in Germany yield is another factor lifting...
BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%, and the asset purchase program at 435B pound, in March. Dataflow during the inter-meeting period was mixed, while the Brexit outlook has become even less certain. The members indicated that domestic economic developments, and hence the monetary policy,...
SNB left target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at between -1.25% and -0.25%, and maintained a dovish tone. Apart from pledging to intervene the “highly valued” Swiss franc, the central bank downgraded its inflation forecasts. However, this appears to have added limited selling pressure to franc, as both...
Dollar tumbled sharply overnight as FOMC economic projected turned out to be much more dovish than expected. Selling continues today, in particular against the Japanese Yen, which is lifted broadly on after the sharp decline in US treasury yields, in response to FOMC. While stock markets are just mixed,...
The Fed has turned more dovish than previously expected. Besides downgrading the economic assessments at the policy statement, the members now expect no change in interest rate this year, followed by one rate hike in 2020. They also revised lower the economic projections and decided to terminate the balance...
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined 12.64 mmb to 1221.85 mmb in the week ended March 15. Crude oil inventory plunged -9.59 mmb to 439.48 mmb (consensus: +0.31 mmb). Inventories declined in 2 out...
Sterling suffers another round of selloff today as the markets clearly disapprove of UK Prime Minister Theresa May's next step on Brexit. In short, she's just seeking a short delay until June 30. But any date beyond May 23, when EU elections take place, is already rejected back on...
Dollar trade generally higher today as markets await FOMC rate decision. But gain is very limited as traders are guarding against unexpected dovishness in Fed. In particular, such dovishness could be embedded in the new economic projections. Meanwhile, Swiss Franc is the second strongest for today, followed by Euro....
At the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend, the members hoorayed for the compliance to the production cut deal, which is expected to reduced output by 1.2M bpd for 6 months through June. As noted in the accompanied statement, “overall conformity reached almost 90%” in February, up from 83% in...
The forex markets are having no clear direction for the moment. In particular, positive data from Europe were generally ignored by currencies even though yields and stocks are lifted. At the same time, there is no clarity regarding Brexit after Commons Speaker John Bercow ruled out meaningful vote on...
BOE would leave the Bank rate at 0.75% in March. Despite the bounce in the January data, the members would still remain cautious as global economic slowdown remains a key theme of this year. Meanwhile, the members would maintain a cautious outlook over Brexit uncertainty, especially the UK parliament...
The financial markets are generally quiet in Asian session today, with stock indices stuck in tight range. Sterling turned mixed after knee-jerk reactions to new Brexit chaos overnight. The Pound is probably as clueless the UK government on what's next for Brexit. Australian Dollar pares back some of this...
Sterling is trading as the weakest one for today so far after suffering some selling in European session. No support is seen for the Pound even though high profile Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg indicated that he might support Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. However, loss is limited in Sterling...
Strong rally in Chinese stocks is lifting Asian markets broadly higher today. Chinese president Xi Jinping is set to visit Italy, France and Monaco from March 21 to 26 this week. While there's no detail on the visits yet, it's believed that there could be signing of an agreement...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 12, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained as increase in longs outweighed that of shorts. With the exception of NZD, all major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. Speculative longs on USD index gained +3...
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 12, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +13 464 contracts to 362 265 for the week. Speculative long positions added +2 513 contracts while shorts slumped -10 951. Crude oil prices strengthened last week. Yet,...
Sterling ended last week as the strongest one as no-deal Brexit is now politically ruled out. But it should be noted that the path forward remains unclear, as least for a few more days. Thus, the upside breakout of Sterling was indecisive. The Pound has indeed closed below recent...
The forex markets turned mixed ahead of weekend as there is a lack of theme driving the moves. Swiss France turned weakest global stock markets jump mildly. Canadian Dollar is the second weakest as WTI crude oil retreats sharply ahead of 60 handle. Sterling is the third weakest as...