ECB Review – Hinting Easing Without Giving Details
The July ECB meeting aims at preparing the market for further easing in September. As expected, the members hinted that interest rate could fall to lower level. They also discussed about the possibility of restarting QE and the two-tiered interest rate system. The announcement was not without surprise. The...
Euro Rebounds after Initial Selloff, ECB Opens Door to Rate Cut But Seems Not Urgent
After initial selloff, Euro quickly rebounds as ECB Mario Draghi's press conference is not as dovish as the statement suggests. September ECB decision could be live, depending on upcoming economic projections. For now, Euro is the strongest one for today, followed by Sterling. Dollar is the third strongest, supported...
Euro Stays Weak as Markets Await Dovish ECB Hold
Monetary easing from central banks remain a major background theme in the markets. Euro is sold off this week as markets are preparing for dovishness from ECB today. While immediate policy action is not envisaged, President Mario Draghi is expected to explicitly set the stage for some announcement next...
US Crude Oil Inventory Slumped Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -6.687 mmb to 1308.54 mmb in the week ended July 19. Crude oil inventory slumped -10.84 mmb to 445.04 mmb (consensus: -4.01 mmb). Inventories fell in 4 out...
Euro Dives as PMIs Solidify Case for ECB Easing
Euro tumbles sharply today as poor PMI data solidifies the case for ECB easing ahead. The central bank is not expected to act tomorrow yet, but some form of indications would likely be provided by President Mario Draghi, on what stimulus would be adopted. For now, Australian Dollar is...
Aussie Falls on RBA Rate Cut Expectations, Euro Soft ahead of PMIs
The financial markets somewhat decouple in Asian session today. Australian Dollar is sold off broadly while Yen strengthens, Yet it's has nothing to do with risk appetite with Asian equity indices generally higher. Aussie's weakness is mainly due to RBA rate expectations following poor PMIs. In particular, sharp deterioration...
Brexit Update – New PM, Old Challenge
UK’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson has about 3 months to deliver Brexit. With the EU reiterating refusal to amend the Withdrawal Agreement (the deal), Johnson should face the same challenge as his predecessor, Theresa May. We continue to expect Brexit with a deal, as the composition of the...
Dollar Extends Rebound, Sterling Soft after Brief Recovery
Sterling has a very brief recovery today after Boris Johnson reaches the most important checkpoint to become the next UK prime minister. But the Pound quickly lost momentum and is back under pressure. Though, for now, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest one, followed by Euro, then Sterling. On...
Dollar Rises in Mixed Markets, Resumes Rally Against Euro
Dollar strengthens broadly today and breaks near term support against Euro. There is no clear sign of strength in other pairs yet. More is needed to the greenback to prove itself. Meanwhile, markets remain relatively mixed elsewhere. Canadian Dollar is the strongest yet New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar...
Dollar Lacks Direction While US-China Trade Meeting Said to Resume
The forex markets are generally mixed today in rather quiet trading. Dollar lacks a clear direction despite rumors that US and China trade teams are going finally meet to resume negotiations. Canadian Dollar is currently the weakest one, followed by Sterling, and then Yen. On the other hand, New...
ECB Preview – Expecting Change in Forward Guidance and Hints on QE Resumption and Tiering
We expect ECB to implement more easing measures to stimulate the economy, and the timing would likely be in September. The July meeting, scheduled later this week, would be used to prepare the market further the easing package. Over the past month, ECB has sent strong signals that a...
Sterling in Focus in a Light Day, ECB and US GDP ahead
Asian markets are trading generally lower today as another weak starts. Though, weakness in stocks is relatively limited. Expectations on Fed and ECB easing remain generally firm. It looks like a matter of when and how much easing only. In the currency markets, Yen is trading mildly lower, followed...
Sterling Might Bottom While Euro Would Stay Pressured, Dollar Indecisive
Sterling, Dollar and Euro were the major focuses last week as they took turn in suffering selloffs. The Pound was pressured by increasing worries over no-deal Brexit. While it ended the week as the weakest one, late recovery argues that the worst could be past for Sterling for the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length for Crude Oil Futures Gained Most in Three Months
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 17, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +33 613 contracts to 423 762 for the week. Speculative long positions surged +39 788 contracts and shorts were up +6 175 contracts. For refined oil products, NET...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD as Fed Funds Rate Cut Approaches
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 17, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +276 contracts to 27 332. Speculative long positions slid -27 contracts while short positions dropped -303 contracts during the week.
Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
Canadian Dollar Dives on Retail Sales Miss, Euro Also Weak
Canadian Dollar drops sharply in early US session after big disappointment from retail sales data. The Loonie is currently trading as the weakest one for today. Euro is following as the second weakest as markets increases bet on ECB rate cut. Money markets are pricing in around 60% of...
Dollar Dives as Dovish Fedspeaks Reinforce Rate Cut Bets
Dollar stabilizes in Asian session after steep decline overnight. Bets on Fed's rate cut this month jumped after dovish comments from some key Fed officials. It seems that Fed might choose not to listen to the solid economic data released recently, but opt for the path of insurance. Treasury...
Dollar Shrugs Solid Manufacturing and Job Data, Euro Even Worse
Manufacturing and job data released the US are pretty solid. But dollar shrugs off and stays soft. Though, Euro is even weaker on rumor that ECB is considering to revamp their inflation target, which could give policymakers rooms to pursue monetary stimulus for longer. Canadian Dollar is also among...
Dollar Back Under Pressure, Yen Jumps on Falling Yields
Dollar is back under pressure following weakness in US stocks and yields overnight. But it remains largely in range, except versus Yen. Indeed, Yen buying seems to be picking up momentum again, in tandem with steep decline in Nikkei in Asian session. But risk aversion is having little impact...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell, While Fuel Stockpile Gained
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks jumped +11.66 mmb to 1315.23 mmb in the week ended July 12. Crude oil inventory declined -3.12 mmb to 455.88 mmb (consensus: -2.69 mmb). Inventories fell in 4 out...