Brexit Update – Johnson’s Deal Appears Unattractive to EU Members
British pound plunged on news that EU members would unlikely accept the new Withdrawal Agreement proposed by UK PM Boris Johnson. Market anxiety intensified as a report by The Times suggesting that German chancellor Angela Merkel demanded for Northern Ireland to stay in a customs union with the EU...
Sterling Tumbles on Brexit, Investors Cautious on Trade Talks
Investors turned generally cautious again after Bloomberg came back with another report that US is on ways to further scrutinize index providers' decision to add Chinese firms that could be material risks for investors. The administration believed that Americans are harmed by channeling funds into Chinese companies which pose...
Taiwan’s Economy Benefits from US-China Trade War
Uncertainty about US-China trade war continues. While negotiations are schedule to resume next week, chance of reaching resolution is low. While some have warned that ‘when China sneezes, the world catches cold’, there are economies that benefit from the trade conflict. It appears that the economy of Taiwan, which...
Sentiments Improved Mildly as Trade Talks Awaited, Yen and Dollar Softer
Yen weakens generally today in response to rebounds in Asian markets, as China and Hong Kong are back from holidays. Additionally, US 10-year yield closed mildly higher at 2.045 overnight, seemed to be drawing some support from 2% handle. But sentiments are still capped by uncertainties over US-China trade...
Sterling Lower on Brexit Uncertainties, But Ignore Scottish Court Ruling
Sterling trades generally soft today as markets are awaiting Brexit developments. Scotland's Outer House of the Court of Session ruled against the request to force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to seek Brexit delay. But that was only because "government's clearly stated position before the court, there is no need for...
Yen Firmer in Quiet Markets, Eye on US-China Trade Talks
The forex markets are generally quiet today, staying in tight ranges. Trading is subdued with China and Hong Kong on holiday. Yen, Euro and Dollar are the mildly firmer ones. Australian Dollar, Sterling and Swiss Franc are the relatively weaker ones. US-China trade talks and Brexit will be the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length on JPY Increased on Risk Aversion
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 1, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +1 089 contracts to 43 028. Speculative long positions rose +2 255 contracts and short positions added +1 166 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders -Bets on Lower Crude Price Soared
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 1, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -34 843 contracts to 389 319 for the week. Speculative long positions declined -13 664 contracts while shorts jumped +21 179 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar Ended Lower on Recession Fear and Fed Cut Bets, Awaits Trade Talks
Dollar ended last week generally lower, except versus Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. The greenback was pressured as poor economic data raised recessions fears while traders added to bet of Fed cut this month. Though, there is no clear sign of bearish reversal in the greenback yet, except versus...
Dollar Directionless after Mixed Non-Farm Payrolls
Dollar is relatively directionless in after mixed job data. The headline number is a slight miss and wage growth disappoints. Yet, unemployment rate dropped to lowest level since 1969. For today, Sterling is the weakest one as it looks like EU is not so happy with UK's new Brexit...
Dollar Soft ahead of Non-Farm Payroll, 10-Year Yield Dived
Dollar trades generally softer today as markets turned cautious ahead of non-farm payroll report. After a string of weak economic data from the US this week, recession fears intensified. NFP today could be a make-or-break point for investor sentiments in general. For now, Swiss Franc is the weakest for...
Sterling Rebounds as Johnson’s Brexit Plan Got Tories Backing
Sterling rebounds strongly as news emerged that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's new Brexit plan is well received by Conservatives. The news is more than enough to offset poor PMI data released earlier today. New Zealand and Australian Dollars are following as second strongest for today, paring some of...
US Crude Oil Inventory Gained Last Week, In Contrast to API’s Estimate of Sharp Fall
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -0.85 mmb to 1296.69 mmb in the week ended September 27. Crude oil inventory added +3.1 mmb to 422.64 mmb (consensus: +1.57 mmb). Inventories increased in 3 out...
Concerns over Capital Outflow in Hong Kong Exaggerated
As the anti-extradition protests enter the fourth month, the market is increasingly concerned about the liquidity and economic slowdown in Hong Kong. Goldman Sachs' report has unnerved investors about the financial stability in Hong Kong. However, we believe the worries are exaggerated. Economic slowdown, mainly driven by Chinese economic...
Markets in Risk Aversion on Recession and Trade War Concerns, Yen Strong
Yen remains generally firm in Asian session today as risk aversion dominates. Selloff in US stocks overnight spilled over to other markets. Poor economic data, manufacturing and employment, raised recession concerns. Additionally, US is taking another step in global trade war, by raising tariffs on EU after WTO ruling...
Dollar Regains Control With Job Data, But Yen Much Stronger
Dollar regains some control and stays firm after ADP job report. Though, it's outshone clearly by Yen which is lifted by risk aversion. New Zealand Dollar comes in as second strongest as it's paring some of recent losses. On the other hand, Swiss Franc drops notably after poor CPI...
Brexit Update – Johnson’s New Proposal Unlikely Resolves Irish Border Problem
British pound recovers modestly in light of the news that UK PM Boris Johnson would discuss a new Withdrawal Agreement (the deal) with the EU. We are not hopeful that the new proposal on Irish border would be accepted by EU members, let alone UK parliament. Johnson’s threat that...
Dollar Rally Halted, Focus Turns to ADP Job First
The forex markets are trephining in rather tight range today. Dollar turned mixed overnight after poor ISM manufacturing data. Chance of another Fed cut in October, as priced in by fed fund futures, rose to 63.1%. But outlook could change drastically with upcoming data, including ADP jobs today, ISM...
Dollar Rises as Fed Evans Hints that Rate Cut is Done
Dollar surges broadly today after a Fed dove said that the rate cuts delivered are already enough to lift inflation back to target. Euro somewhat shrug off weak inflation and PMI data and follows as second strongest, then Swiss Franc. Australian Dollar is the weakest one after RBA's dovish...
Aussie Dives after RBA Dovish Rate Cut, Dollar Strong
Australian Dollar drops broadly after RBA cut interest rate as widely expected. The central bank also maintains easing bias, suggesting that the easing cycle might not be over yet. Poor housing data also weight on sentiments. New Zealand Dollar is following as second weakest and then Japanese Yen. On...