CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Commodity Prices Increased Across the Board
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 29, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +17 175 contracts to 388 347 for the week. Speculative long positions added +3 291 contracts while shorts slumped -13 884 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Fed, BoC and RBA Expectations Drove USD, CAD and AUD
With US-China on track to phase one trade deal, and UK preparing for December election, focus turned back to economic data and central banks last week. In particular, Canadian Dollar ended as the worst performing after BoC's surprise dovish turn, which opened the door for rate cut. Dollar followed...
Dollar Rebounds on NFP, But Upside Capped by Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth
Dollar rebounds notably in early US session after stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report. But there is no clear follow through buying yet as wage growth missed. Also, at this point, New Zealand Dollar and Sterling are the strongest ones for today. Return of risk appetite sends Yen and...
Dollar Soft as Markets Await US Non-Farm Payrolls, Aussie Firmer on Chinese Data
Dollar stays soft in Asian session today as markets await non-farm payrolls and ISM manufacturing data. Yen and Swiss Franc follow as next weakest. On the other hand Aussie and Kiwi are the strongest ones so far, both are lifted mildly by slightly better than expected Chinese data. For...
Yen Jumps on Renewed US-China Trade Concerns, Dollar Extends Post FOMC Selloff
Yen rises notably today as focuses turn back to US-China trade negotiations after central bank activities and economic data releases. There are renewed concerns that even if a phase one deal could be reached, the next phase(s) would be very difficult. Dollar remains generally soft and is currently trading...
Dollar Dives as Non-Committal Powell Dissatisfied Bulls, Aussie Shines
Both Dollar and Canadian are under tremendous selling pressure after respective central bank announcements overnight. Fed chair Jerome Powell did signal a pause after yesterday's rate cut. Yet, his message was too non-committal and let Dollar bulls dissatisfied. On the other hand, BoC was clearly more dovish than expected...
Turning Dovish, BOC Discussed about Insurance Rate Cut for First Time In October
BOC turned dovish in the October meeting, while maintaining the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. For the first time, the central bank discussed about “insurance” rate cut, citing trade war’s damage to business investment and exports. The announcement sent the loonie lower, giving half of the gains made earlier...
Fed Signals to Pause after a Third Rate Cut
FOMC delivered a hawkish cut at the October meeting. The central bank lowered the Fed funds rate, by -25 bps, to 1.5-1.75%. Yet, the Fed removed the language that it will act to sustain expansion at the forward guidance. This appears that the Fed has prepared to pause after...
Dollar Mixed after Strong GDP, But Weak ADP Jobs
Dollar continues to trade mixed in early US session. Negative effect of ADP job data is more than offset by stronger than expected Q3 GDP growth. The greenback will now look into FOMC rate decision for guidance. The key is whether Fed will signal the end of mid-cycle adjustment...
Dollar Softer as Markets Await US GDP and Fed Rate Cut
Dollar and Canadian are both trading with an undertone as markets await BoC and FOMC rate decisions, as well as US GDP data. Sterling appears to be mildly firmer as UK is finally heading towards election in mid-December. But there is no clear follow through buying. Swiss Franc and...
Brexit Update – Early Elections to be Held in 5 Weeks
After EU’s approval of the request to extend Article 50 for another three months (January 31, 2020), the UK parliament passed a bill calling for early elections on December 12. The market remained cautious about these moves with both sterling and euro moving in narrow ranges. The best outcome...
Yen Mixed as Risk Appetite Fades, Europeans Soft on UK Election
Australian Dollar remains the strongest one for today as boosted by optimism over US-China trade deal. But the markets are relatively mixed elsewhere. Yen couldn't decide what to do as risk appetite fades in European session, while US stocks also open mildly lower. European majors are generally soft on...
Aussie Surges on US-China Trade Optimism, Yen Broadly Lower
Australian and New Zealand Dollar rise broadly on optimism that US and China are "ahead of schedule" in completing the phase one trade deal. Dollar and Canadian are not too far away but buying is relatively refrained ahead of Fed and BoC rate announcement. On the other hand, European...
Swiss Franc and Yen Weaken on Risk Appetite, US Stocks to Hit Record
Swiss Franc and Yen weaken broadly again today as risk appetite returns to markets. In particular, US stocks are set to challenge record high, on trade optimism, as well as expectation of another Fed rate cut. European stocks, except FTSE, also rise mildly as EU agreed on a three-month...
Dollar Mildly Higher ahead of FOMC and Lots of Data
Dollar trades mildly higher in quiet trading today so far, but Euro is a bit stronger. On the other hand, Sterling and Canadian Dollar are the relatively weaker ones. All these four currencies have something to look at this week, which might trigger strong moves. In particular, the greenback...
FOMC Preview – Third Rate Cut on Table. Will Fed Signal A Pause or More to Come?
The market has almost fully priced in a rate cut of -25 bps in the FOMC meeting this week. Some in the market are speculating that the Fed would change the forward guidance. Some expect the central bank to signal a temporary end to rate cut in October. This...
BOC Preview – Policy Rate will Stay Unchanged. But for How Long?
Although the Fed and ECB have resumed monetary easing, BOC is not expected to follow suit. This is also the key reason for the recent strength in Canadian dollar. At the meeting next week, we expect the central bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%.
Upside surprise in...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net LENGTH for CAD futures has More than Double amidst Narrowing Yield Spread with USD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 22, NET LENGTH in USD Index declined -6 226 contracts to 31 210. Speculative long positions fell -3 455 contracts and short positions added +2771 contracts. USD fell across the board as market turned trade...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Oil Prices Increased as Market Sentiment Improved
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 22, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +9 288 contracts to 366 172 for the week. Speculative long positions jumped +12 545 contracts while shorts added +3 257 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar and Loonie Strengthened as USD/CAD Presses 1.3 ahead of Fed and BoC
Canadian and US Dollars ended last week as the strongest ones. It now appears that US and China are on track to complete the easier phase 1 trade deal in November. Optimism lifted stocks as well as oil prices, which indirectly helped the Loonie too. Also, recent developments in...