Low Base and Frontloading Drove China’s Trade Higher in December
China’s foreign trade surprised to the upside in December. Exports rose +7.6% y/y in the last month of 2019, compared with consensus of +2.9%. Meanwhile, imports jumped +13.6% y/y, beating expectations of +9.6%. Both outbound and inbound shipment improved in December from a month ago. Exports in November contracted...
Sentiments Lifted as US Scrapped China’s Currency Manipulator Label
Yen weakens broadly today as markets are generally in risk on mode. US stocks rose broadly overnight with S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at record highs. Sentiments were lifted as US scrapped labeling of China as currency manipulator, just ahead of trade deal signing on Wednesday. Asian stocks are...
Sterling Dives after Poor GDP, Yen Lower on Rising Yields
Sterling is sold off broadly today as poor GDP data added to the case of BoE rate cut. Recent comments from BoE officials already suggested that they're open to easing if data don't show improvement. The Pound will face more tests from CPI and retail sales later in the...
Risk On Ahead of US-China Trade Deal, Sterling Weak and Aussie Firm
Asian markets are generally in risk on mode today as traders await signing of US-China trade deal phase one. Commodity currencies strengthen with Australian Dollar leading the way up. On the other hand, Sterling is currently the weakest one as weighed down by dovish comments from BoE officials. A...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT on Safe Haven Currencies Fell as Risk Sentiment Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 7. NET LENGTH in USD Index added +414 contracts to 12 468. Speculative long positions dropped -1 120 contracts and short positions fell -1 534 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures declined...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Safe Haven Assets Trimmed Last Week
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 7. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rose + 12 415 contracts to 567 272 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +12 161 contracts while shorts dropped -254 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar Rally Jeopardized by Job Data, No Bullish Reversal Yet
After some jitters on Iran tensions, Dollar ended up as the strongest one last week. Strong stocks and steady yields provided some support to the greenback. Fed officials also reaffirmed the base stance to stand pat this year. US and China are on track to sign the phase one...
Dollar Retreats after NFP Miss, But Loss Limited
Dollar retreats mildly in early US session after non-farm payroll reports missed market expectation. But loss is limited as the set of data was decent even thought not spectacular. Indeed, there is prospect of more Dollar rally once the knee-jerk reactions fade. For now, Swiss Franc and Yen is...
Dollar Supported by Fedspeaks, Awaits NFP for Next Move
Markets are somewhat staying in risk on mode with US stock indices making new record highs overnight. But upside momentum in Asia markets is relatively weak. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are mildly firmer today, paring some of this week's losses. Meanwhile, Yen and Canadian Dollar are the weaker...
Dollar Firm as Markets Turn Risk On, Sterling Soft
Markets are generally back on risk on mode today as the concerns of US-Iran tensions faded. Also, it's finally confirmed that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will travel to the US for signing the trade deal phase one. Dollar rises broadly with deeper pull back in oil prices and...
Dollar Rises as Iran Risks Fade, Yen and Franc Soften
Yen and Swiss Franc weakened notably as imminent US-Iran war receded. Canadian Dollar also turned slightly softer as oil prices reversed this week's gains. Dollar is currently trying to ride on the development to extend recent rebound. But the real will probably lie in tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. For...
US Crude Oil Inventory Gained, While Refined Product Stockpile Rose Sharply Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +14.77 mmb to 1287.84 mmb in the week ended January 3. Crude oil inventory gained +1.16 mmb (consensus: -3.57 mmb) to 431.06 mmb. Inventory in PADD 3 (Gulf...
Dollar Rebounds on Lesser Iran Risks and Strong Job Data
Dollar rebounds strongly as risk of imminent escalation in US-Iran tensions seem to have eased. It's reported there was no casualties caused by Iran's retaliation strikes against US forces in Iraq. The greenback is additionally supported by strong ADP employment report. Dollar follows New Zealand Dollar as second strongest....
Gold Driven Higher by Iran Tensions, Falling Yields and Rising Inflation Expectations
Geopolitical tensions in Iran continue to evolve. The latest development is that Iran has launched over a dozen missiles at Iraqi bases hosting US and coalition troops. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced in a statement that the attack was done “in the name of martyr General Qassem...
Gold Jumps on Iran Retaliation, Markets Calmed by Trump’s Refrained Response
Dollar turns slightly softer, broadly, as Middle East tensions escalated after Iran's strike against US forces in Iraq. But loss is so far limited after President Donald Trump's refrained response. Markets generally calmed down for now, awaiting Trump's statement later in US morning. Yen and Canadian Dollar are the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Crude Oil and Heating Oil Futures Gained Last Week
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 31. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +4 780 contracts to 554 857 for the week. Speculative long positions added +1 546 contracts while shorts dropped -3 234 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH for USD Futures Shrank as Market Sentiment Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 31. NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -1 177 contracts to 12 054. Speculative long positions added +907 contracts and short positions added +2 084 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures added...
Dollar Surges Broadly, Aussie Selloff Accelerates
Dollar is trading generally higher today and Middle East tensions seem to be out of traders' mind already, without any new developments. Instead, markets are focusing back on fundamentals and central bank expectations. Thus, Australian and New Zealand Dollars are suffering steep selloff despite return of risk appetite. In...
US Dollar May Lose Appeal this Year if Market Sentiment Improves and US Growth Slows
As the world’s largest reserve currency, movement of US dollar reflects its two roles. First, the strength of USD reflects the well being of the domestic economic developments. The greenback rises against other currencies if US’ economy is expected to perform better than others. Second, as the world’s biggest...
Yen Turns Soft as Sentiments Stabilized, No Further Escalation in Middle East Tensions
Market sentiments have generally stabilized, with no further escalation in Middle East tensions so far. Asian stocks are trading generally higher. US indices closed with slight gains after reversing initial losses. Focus should now be turned back to economic data. The currency markets is relatively mixed for today. New...