Dollar to Draw Support from Non-Farm Payrolls for a Strong Close
Dollar is trading with a firm tone as markets await non-farm payrolls report from the US. Bet on a Fed rate cut by June receded this week, currently a 36.6% as indicated by fed fund futures, as stocks extended record runs. A set of solid job data could give...
Stocks to Continue Record Runs, Dollar Firm With Aussie
Markets continue to stay in risk on mode today, with US futures point to more record highs. There is some lift by news that China will halve tariffs on some US imports. Also coronavirus continues to be off investors' mind. In the currency markets, Australian Dollar is the strongest...
More Rate Cuts Expected as Novel Coronavirus Hurt China’s Economy Severely
Earlier this week PBOC announced monetary easing measures to support the economy, in light of the severity of the novel coronavirus. Concerning the latest move, PBOC announced to cut the 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rate, each by -10 bps, to 2.4% and 2.55% respectively. The -10 bps reduction...
Risk On as Coronavirus Fears Subside, Aussie and Dollar Strong
Australian Dollar remains the strongest one for the week while markets are back in risk on mode. Fears over China's coronavirus seem to have subsided, with S&P 500 and NASDAQ new record highs. 10-year yield also staged a strong rebound, taking Dollar broadly higher too. On the other hand,...
US Crude Oil Inventory Jumped Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -0.89 mmb to 1294.91 mmb in the week ended January 31. Crude oil inventory gained +3.36 mmb (consensus: +2.83 mmb) to 435.01 mmb. Stockpile in PADD 3 (Gulf...
Dollar Surges on Strong ADP Employment, But Aussie Even Stronger
Dollar rises broadly in early US session after strong ADP employment data. But it's outshone by both Australian Dollar and Sterling. The Aussie is apparently helped by return of risk appetite as well as an RBA's governor that's comfortable with current monetary policy. On the other hand, Swiss Franc...
Focus Turns to US Job and Services Data and Coronavirus Fears Recede
The financial markets seem to have stabilized from coronavirus fears. Following the strong rebound in US stocks overnight, Asian indices are also trading generally higher. Yen and Swiss Franc continue to trade as two of the weakest for the week. But Sterling is the worst performing one on Brexit...
Yen and Franc Turns Softer as Markets Stabilized from Coronavirus Fears
Yen and Swiss Franc turn softer today as global markets rebound. China's coronavirus seems to be suddenly off investors mind, at least temporarily. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar is the strongest one for today, as partly supported by RBA's hold, as well as easing risk aversion. Canadian Dollar follows as the...
RBA Left Cash Rate at 0.75%. Less Dovish on Growth Despite Headwinds
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%. To our surprise, policymakers appeared more upbeat on the economic outlook than we had anticipated. While acknowledging uncertainty to growth mainly driven by bushfires and China’s coronavirus, the members adopt a wait-and-see mode to the impacts. They also preferred to gauge...
Aussie Recovers as RBA Gives No Hint of Imminent Rate Cut
Australian Dollar recovers broadly today after RBA stands pat. More importantly, the central bank gives no hint of an imminent rate cut in the accompanying statement. It actually sounds quite comfortable with the current policy. Markets are relatively mixed elsewhere. Sterling turned mixed after yesterday's selloff . Yen also...
Sterling Tumbles on Worries Over Negotiations With EU, Euro Dragged Down
Focuses in the forex markets turned temporarily from China's coronavirus outbreak to Brexit. Both EU and UK expressed strong positions regarding up coming trade negotiations. Their stance reminds traders that risk of cliff-edge Brexit by year end remains. Sterling suffers steep selloff and drags down the Euro. On the...
Risk Aversion Stays as China Back from Holiday, Coronavirus Outbreak Worsens
Risk aversion continues in Asian session as China's coronavirus outbreak continues to worsen. The Shanghai SSE is currently down -8.13%, catching up with others as it's back from holiday. Nikkei is down -1.10%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.07%. Though, Hong Kong HSI is up 0.09%.
The currency markets, are...
RBA Probably Stays Put in February, Rate Cut Inevitably in Second Quarter
The encouraging employment report might make the case of rate cut less strong this month. Economic developments since the December meeting have been mixed at best. Although job market and inflation showed improvement, GDP growth in the third quarter slowed as contribution from household spending dropped while impacts of...
Bets on Fed Cut Surged on China’s Coronavirus Outbreak; Stocks, Yields & Dollar Tumbled
Fear of China's coronavirus outbreak was the major theme in the global markets last week. At the time of writing, number of confirmed cases were close to 12000. While the majority of the infected in China, the virus has spread to at least 23 countries already. And, most important,...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Safe-Haven Currencies Shined as Novel Coronavirus Exported from China sparks Global Worries
Safe-haven currencies shined as novel coronavirus exported from China sparks global worries. As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 28. NET LENGTH in USD Index added +3 493 contracts to 16 433. Speculative long positions were gained +2 982 contracts and short...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Crude oil Futures Fell Sharply as Price Slumped on Coronavirus Concerns
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 28. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -58 806 contracts to 461 762 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -10 973 contracts while shorts rose +47 833 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar Mildly Lower after PCE Inflation, But Commodity Currencies Even Weaker
Dollar turns slightly weaker in early US session as core PCE inflation data stayed well below Fed's target. Nevertheless, as risk aversion remains in the markets, commodity currencies continue to be the weakest ones. Sterling continues to rise on post BoE rebound but there is no clear range breakout...
Yen and Swiss France Consolidate ahead of Weekend, Await Coronavirus Outbreak Developments
Sterling remains firm today and continues to trade as one of the strongest after yesterday's BoE hold. Yen and Swiss Franc turn mildly softer but stay as two of the strongest too, on risk aversion. Commodity currencies turned mix, digesting this week's sharp looses. New Zealand Dollar is the...
BOE Voted 7-2 to Keep Rate Unchanged, Warned of Weak Inflation
BOE kept the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% but revised lower GDP growth and inflation forecasts. British pound strengthened against US dollar as the Committee voted 7-2 for the decision. The market had anticipated more members to support rate cut. Once again, Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel favored lowering...
Sterling Rebounds after BoE Stands Pat, Coronavirus Fears Remain
Sterling surges broadly today after BoE left interest rates unchanged at 0.75%. Only two policymakers, the usual ones, voted for a cut, without additional dove. Swiss Franc and Yen follow as next strongest on coronavirus fears. An Italian cruise ship with 7000 people is held off the coast for...