Haunted by Domestic Weakness and Coronavirus Uncertainty, Euro’s Weakness is Set to Continue
Currently trading at 1.083 against USD, lowest since April 2017, the single currency has plunged -2.4% in the first half of February. This follows a -1% decline in January. Disappointing economic data, renewed speculations on further rate cut by ECB and intensified global uncertainty as driven by coronavirus outbreak...
RBA Minutes Reveal that Members Consider Cutting Rates Below 0.75%, Warn of Coronavirus Uncertainty
In contrast to February’s RBA meeting statement, which demonstrated a less dovish outlook, the minutes revealed that the members considered lowering the policy rate further. Yet, they decided to keep the powder dry on concerns over “risks associated with very low interest rates”. The central bank was upbeat about...
Risk-off after Apple Warning, Euro Extending Decline ahead of German ZEW
Markets are back in risk off mode in Asia after Apple's warning. While Wuhan coronavirus cases in China might appear to have slowed, investors remain vigilant. More risks lie ahead with German economic sentiment data featured today. For now, commodity currencies are the weakest ones as led by Australian...
Markets Quiet With US on Holiday, Investors Shrug PBoC Stimulus
Markets are generally quite today with US on holiday. PBoC's stimulus measure might have boosted Chinese stocks higher. Reactions from other markets are rather muted. Investors remain generally cautious as this week's February sentiment data will reveal how much China's Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak is hurting confidence. In the currency...
Yen and Nikkei Lower on GDP Contraction, Pessimistic Outlook
Asian markets are mixed as another week starts. Nikkei weakens, together with Yen, as data showed the Japan economy suffered worst contraction in six years. Singapore Strait Times is also mildly lower after the government downgrade this year's growth forecast. Yet, China and Hong Kong stocks are trading mildly...
Euro Collapsed on Coronavirus Spillover Fears, Next Two Weeks Crucial
While China's Wuhan coronavirus outbreak remained a major focus last week and triggered much volatility. But overall, stocks investors seemed not too bothered, with US indices continuing record runs. Other major markets are mixed only FTSE and Nikkei ended the week lower only. Gold closed higher but is well...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold Consolidates at High Level as Safe-Haven Demand Increases
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 11. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slipped -605 contracts to 396 769 for the week. Speculative long positions added +238 contracts while shorts gained +843 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for gasoline added...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Weak Economic Developments in Eurozone Drove Euro Lower
Weakness in Eurozone's economic data has led traders to trim bets on higher euro but raise short bets for further decline. As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 11, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained +2 353 contracts to 19 486. Speculative...
Dollar Mixed after Shrugging Off Retail Sales, Euro Trying to Recover
Economic data released today are generally ignored by the markets. Dollar is mixed, paying little attention to US retail sales. Euro recovers mildly today on short profit taking ahead of weekend. But it remains the weakest one for the week. Swiss Franc and Yen are trading as the next...
Euro Selloff Deepens on Growth Concern, No Sign of Bottoming Yet
Euro remains the weakest one for the week as selloff deepens. It seems that markets believe the coronavirus outbreak in China would hurt Eurozone's economy more, in particular the export led German economy. Optimism of recovery this year is dented. Swiss Franc is somewhat dragged down by the common...
Risk Off Again as China Reports Confusingly Large Wuhan Coronavirus Cases, Sterling Jumps on Cabinet Shuffle
Global stock markets tumble today after China reported a strong daily increase of 15152 Wuhan coronavirus cases on February 12. That was a huge difference from 2015 new cases reported for a day ago. However, the mass difference was due to change in counting method in Hubei province, which...
Major Oil Agencies Downgrade Global Oil Demand Outlook amidst Coronavirus Outbreak
Oil agencies revised lower forecasts for global oil demand, with the outbreak of coronavirus being the key factor. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that world oil demand will increase +1.02% to 101.74M bpd this year and then by +1.49% to 103.26M bpd in 2021. These figures were...
Euro Breaks Key Support Against Dollar, More Broad Based Weakness Likely
Dollar surges to highest level against Euro as helped by rebound in US treasury yields overnight, as well as extended record runs in stocks. Nevertheless, sentiments in Asian turn back into risk-off mode, Yen and Swiss Franc are outshining the greenback for today. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are...
US Crude Oil Inventory Gained Much More than Expected
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -1.01 mmb to 1293.49 mmb in the week ended February 13. Crude oil inventory soared +7.46 mmb (consensus: +2.99 mmb) to 442.47 mmb. Stockpile rose in 4 out...
Dollar Weakens Further as Markets Remains Risk On
Risk appetite stays strong in the global markets, with European indices registering solid gains. US futures also point higher open for extending recent record runs. Yen is under some selling pressure today, together with Dollar and Euro. On the other hand, commodity currencies are generally higher, with Kiwi being...
Kiwi Surges after RBNZ, Risk Markets Rally on Coronavirus Containment Hope
New Zealand Dollar surges broadly today after RBNZ's hawkish hold. Other commodity currencies follow as risk appetite returns to the markets, on hope that China's coronavirus outbreak would peak soon. US stock indices also hit new records after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's affirmative comments. While Dollar turns softer, there...
RBNZ’s Next Move could be Rate Hike
RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1%. Yet, its message came in less dovish than expected. The members were upbeat about the employment situation and inflation. While coronavirus would affect domestic economy, the impact would be short-lived. Policymakers project GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of the...
Risk Appetite Firm as Markets Await Fed Powell, Dollar Mixed in Consolidation
Yen and Swiss are trading generally softer today as risk markets pick up some momentum again. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is leading other commodity currencies higher. Dollar is mixed for the moment, awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony. Rally in stock markets could extend if Powell affirms...
Sentiments Lifted as Fed Officials Assure Rates to Stay Low, Dollar Softens Mildly
Market sentiments are generally calm in Asia, which follow US equities higher. Investors were assured by Fed officials that interest rate is going to stay low at current level for a while. Commodity currencies are recovering today, with Aussie leading the way, even though upside remains rather limited. Yen...
Dollar Extending Rally Against Euro and Canadian
Global financial markets are in mild risk averse mode today but movements are limited. Dollar is lifted by renewed buying in early US session, and it's extending recent rally against Euro and Canadian Dollar. Strength against other major currencies is not apparent yet. In particular, Sterling is currently the...