CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bet on Lower USD Continued. Expect Risk Appetite to Shrink in Coming Week as Coronavirus Cases Increase in Various...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 30, NET SHORT for USD Index futures dropped -339 to 4 975 contracts. Speculative long positions decreased +857 contracts and short positions declined -2 180 contracts. Bets on both sides fell as the market remained...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Energy Prices Dropped Across the Board
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 30, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -17 057 contracts to 543 826 for the week. Speculative long positions dropped -6 864 contracts while shorts rose +10 193 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Markets in Full Risk On, Dollar Tumbles While Euro Surges
Powerful rally in Chinese stock markets push global equities sharply higher today. Europeans indices are all in black, DOW future is up nearly 400 pts while NASDAQ is set to extend record run. Yen and Dollar are both the worst performing ones in risk-on markets. Euro is the strongest...
Euro Jumps as China Markets Extend Powerful Rally
Dollar and Yen are under pressure today as Asian markets opened the week with strong rally. In particular, Chinese stocks are extending last week's powerful rise, taking Hong Kong equities up too. In the currency markets, though, Euro is currently the largest beneficiary and is so far the strongest....
Markets Welcome Solid Economic Data and Ignored Coronavirus Numbers
Markets looked rather indifferent to the resurgence of coronavirus infections. Daily new cases surged to new high above 200k. Total cases broke 11m while deaths is closing in to 530k. But traders and investors couldn't care less. Instead, sentiments were lifted by hope of recovery ahead, with Q3 already...
Sentiments Supported Further by China Services Data, Yen and Dollar Soft
Markets are generally trading in risk-on mode today. NASDAQ surged to new record highs overnight following solid US job data. Better than expected China services data continue to support sentiment. Yen, Dollar and Euro are set to end the week as the worst performing ones while Sterling and commodity...
Strong NFP Lifts Stock But Not Dollar, Yen Weakens
Strong employment data from the US boosts market sentiments as DOW future is up over 400 pts at the time of writing. European indices are also extending gains. The greenback however, shrugs of the data and it's trading as the second weakest for today, next to Yen. New Zealand...
Sterling Could Steal the Show From Dollar as Focus Turns to NFP
Dollar and Yen are both trading as the weakest ones for the week for now. FOMC minutes released overnight gave little support to the greenback, nor that ADP job number and ISM manufacturing. Focus is turning to non-farm payrolls report to be released today. Sterling's roller coaster ride continues...
FOMC Minutes: Changes in Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases could Come in September
The FOMC minutes for the June meeting revealed that the members had rigorous discussion about forward guidance, asset purchases and yield curve caps/targets. We expect the framework review will be completed this month, allowing the Fed to announce changes in forward guidance and the asset purchase program at the...
US Crude Inventory Saw Biggest Decline since Early January
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks added +1.12 mmb to 1451.78 mmb in the week ended June 26. Crude oil inventory plunged -7.2 mmb (consensus: -0.71 mmb) to 533.53 mmb. The size of the fall...
Euro Tumbles in Indecisive Markets, Mildly Risk-off
Markets continue to trade in rather indecisive mode today. DOW futures point to mildly lower open, following European stocks, and is getting not support from solid ADP job data. Yen appears to be rebounding but it's kept well above near term resistance level against others. Swiss Fran, on the...
Yen Up after Poor Tankan, Mixed Markets Await Guidance
The overall markets remain rather mixed so far. Rebound in US stocks overnight didn't carry forward to Asian session. Nikkei is weighed down by poor Tankan survey data. Dollar's rally attempt was somewhat knocked down by up trend resumption in Gold. Recovery in oil prices also dragged down the...
Policy Divergence Continues to Support AUDNZD Strength
Both Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar have outperformed other G7 currencies over the past two months, as investors expressed their confidence to global economic recovery through higher-risk assets. A key reason for Australian dollar's relative better performance over New Zealand dollar, despite the similarities in terms of risk...
Dollar Firms Up But Yet to Break Resistance Against Weakening Euro
Dollar continues to stay firm in early US session as supported by strength against Sterling, Yen and to a lesser extent Canadian. Yet, the moves are rather indecisive elsewhere. The greenback remains bounded in range against Euro and Aussie, and even Swiss Franc. Euro receives no support from stronger...
Yen and Franc Weaken Broadly, Euro Strength Uncertain
Yen and Swiss Franc are trading as the weakest ones for the week so far, partly due to the strong rebound in stock markets overnight. Sterling is following as the next worst performing as traders continue to price in Brexit uncertainties. Yet, it's unsure which currency is benefiting most...
Euro Lifted By Improve Confidence, and Tumbling Sterling
Sterling tumbles broadly today, appeared to be weighed down by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to double down on public investments. The selloff is particularly apparent against Euro, as the latter was lifted mildly by improvements in Eurozone confidence indicators, and better than expected Germany CPI. The developments...
Dollar Turned Mildly Softer in Subdued Trading, Import Data Lie Ahead
The markets opened the week with mild risk aversion, in response to continuously surging global coronavirus cases. Japanese stock was additionally weighed down by poor retail sales data. But outside of Japan, losses are relatively limited. European indices have indeed opened mixed only while US futures are slightly up....
PBOC to Ease Less Aggressively as Debt Problems Intensify after Months of Liquidity Injection
The phenomenon of rising interest rates since early May appears contradictory to Chinese government’s commitment to maintain “liquidity at a reasonably ample level”. PBOC's leaving of the loan prime rate (LPR), China’s policy rate, unchanged in May and June has fueled speculation about a shift in monetary policy stance....
Risk Reversal Building Up on Coronavirus and US-China Tensions
The conditions for risk reversal continued to build up last week and somewhat intensified. On the one hand, daily new coronavirus cases surged to new high for the world world, as well as for the US. Daily global new deaths were steady and the US death tolls trended down....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length on Gold Soared to Two-Month High as Rally Resumed
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 23, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +14 611 contracts to 560 883 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +4 774 contracts while shorts plunged -9 837 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...