Dovish Fed Warned that Recovery Path Dependent on Virus, Pledged to Add More Stimulus when Needed
The Fed sent a more dovish message at the July meeting, although the monetary policy, as well as the accompanying statement, stayed largely unchanged. Despite improvement of data flow, the members warned that the pace of recovery is depending on the developments of coronavirus pandemic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell...
Yen Crosses Diverge, Dollar Tumbled after Uneventful FOMC
Dollar tumbled again overnight after the rather uneventful FOMC rate decision. But selling slowed a little bit in Asian session today. Nevertheless, the greenback remains the worst performer for the week. Commodity currencies are actually not performing well, with New Zealand and Canadian Dollar down against most for the...
Sterling Rises in Mixed Markets, Dollar Weak ahead of Fed
Sterling surges broadly in rather mixed markets today. Rebound in cross against Euro is seen as a major reason for the Pound's strength. Australian Dollar is following as the second strongest for now, partly listed by cross buying against New Zealand Dollar. Kiwi and Swiss Franc are, on the...
Gold Price Approaches US$2,000/oz amidst Low Real Yields, Rising Inflation Expectations and Geopolitical Tensions
Gold's rally has accelerated with the front-month Comex contract making new highs for two consecutive dates. We believe the recent relentless rally of the yellow metal is driven by a number of factors: low real rates, expectations of higher inflation as a result of ultra expansionary monetary policy and...
Dollar Soft Awaiting FOMC, Overall Movements Limited
Dollar remains generally weak today as recovery attempts faltered quickly. Though, selling remains centered against European majors and Yen. FOMC monetary policy decision is a focus today but it's unlikely to give the greenback any sustainable support. Overall, major pairs and crosses are bounded inside yesterday's range, though. Gold...
Yen and Franc Rise, Euro and Gold Dip in Consolidative Markets
Yen rises generally today, together with Swiss Franc, in rather subdued consolidative markets. Stocks are trading mildly lower but there is hardly any following selloff for now. Much volatility is seen in Gold and Silver, while retreat notably after initial spike. But both are contained above near term support...
Dollar in Recovery as Markets Digests Recent Losses, Weak Momentum Though
Dollar recovers mildly today as markets start to digest recent broad-based losses. Gold and silver are also in retreats after initial spikes. But the movements are so far rather limited. While some consolidations might be seen, there is no sign for sustainable rebound in the greenback yet. As of...
Euro Power Continues While Gold Extends Record Run
The powerful rallies in Euro and Gold remain the dominate theme for today as traders seems to be focusing on the worsening US-China relations as well as second wave of coronavirus infections in the US and Asia. Swiss franc tumbles sharply, as mainly pressured by the selloff against Euro...
FOMC Preview – Preparing for Changes in Monetary Policy
The upcoming FOMC meeting aims at preparing the market for changes in the monetary policy in September. At the meeting this week, the Fed will keep its policy measures unchanged at this week’s meeting, i.e., the Fed funds rate will stay at 0-0.25%, while asset purchases (QE) will be...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil Trimmed on Both Sides. Yet, Net Length Soared
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 21, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rise +9 125 contracts to 548 876 for the week. Bets on both sides increased. Speculative short position plunged -13 473 contracts, more than offsetting the -13 473 decline...
Dollar Tumbles Further as Gold Hits Record, Coronavirus Weighs on Sentiments
Gold's up trend accelerates further and finally makes new record high today. That comes in a time when there are increasing evidence of second wave of coronavirus infections globally. Also, US-China relations deteriorate to a new low for decades. Dollar is extending recent selloff and is trading and the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Trader Increased Long Bets, Sending Euro to Almost 2-Year High
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 21, NET SHORT for USD Index futures gained +754 to 5 793 contracts. Speculative long positions increased +6 856 contracts and short positions added +7 610 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
Euro Started Medium Term Up Trend With Break of Key Resistance Against Dollar
Euro ended as the strongest one last week as boosted by the agreement on the Next Generation EU recovery fund. It's seen as a landmark deal which would increase cohesion of the EU. The burden on ECB would also be dramatically eased with the fiscal support. Meanwhile, Eurozone PMI...
European Majors Supported By Strong PMIs, Risk Aversion Continues
Yen and Swiss Franc are trading as the strongest ones for today as stock markets are weighed down by escalating US-China tensions. Though, negative sentiments in Europe was partly offset by much stronger than expected Eurozone and UK PMIs. Signs of a V recovery are there even though the...
Risk-Off on Double Dip Worries and Intensifying US-China Tensions
The financial markets are generally in risk-off mode in Asia, following the selloff in US overnight. Worries over a double dip recession increased after initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose for the first time in nearly four months. Selloff was most serious in NASDAQ,, which closed down -2.29% just after...
Markets Shrug Rebounding Jobless Claims, Sterling Lower on Brexit Stalemate
Sterling tumbles broadly today as another round of Brexit negotiations ended without making any significant progress. Though, Aussie is even weaker as traders are finally taking profits on this week's strong rally. Swiss Franc, on the other hand, rebound strongly, particular against Euro as the lift from EU recovery...
Dollar and Yen Weak after Steep Selloff, No Bottoming in Sight Yet
Investors in Asia remain generally cautious today as reflected in the mixed markets. US-China tensions look set to escalate further after President Donald Trump said closure of other Chinese missions is "always possible". Yet, the developments give no special support to Dollar and Yen. Both remain the weakest for...
US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Increased, Cushing Stockpile Rose for Three Weeks in a Row
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +8.82 mmb to 1461.16 mmb in the week ended July 17. Crude oil inventory gained +4.89 mmb (consensus: -2.09 mmb) to 536.58 mmb. Stockpile increased in 3 out...
Yen Selloff Accelerates Even Though Risk Sentiments Turned Mixed
Risk markets turned mixed today as investors appear to be turning from optimism to cautiousness. Hong Kong stock suffered steep losses on escalating US-China tension. The selloff somewhat carries forward to European markets. Yet, US markets open with slight gains. In the currency markets, Euro is leading the way...
Silver Price to Go High on Economic Recovery amidst High Uncertainty
Silver price’s rally has accelerated over the past weeks. Currently trading at US$ 22.65/oz, price has jumped +27% ytd. Yet, much of the gains (22% out of 27%) was made in the first three weeks of July. With its dual properties, as both industrial and precious metals, silver will...