Euro Tumbled as Optimistic Investors Reassess Outlook, Turning Around?
Euro ended as the worst performing one last week as investors could have started to reassess the economic outlook. As ECB meeting accounts pointed out, recent positive market developments were "not fully backed by economic data". Indeed, they might be based on "overly optimistic expectations" about the Next Generation...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil and Gold Continued to Drop
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 18, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -10 240 contracts to 510 695 for the week. Speculative long position fell -17 242 contracts, while dropped -7 002. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for gasoline...
CFTC Commitments of Traders- Trades Trimmed on EUR while Sentiment on CAD Remained Weak
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 18, NET SHORT for USD Index futures slipped -667 to 7 515 contracts. Speculative long positions added +337 contracts and short positions were down -330 contracts. It is possible for further decline in NET SHORT...
Euro and Sterling Plummets on Brexit Deadlock, Yen Surges
European majors tumble broadly today as UK and EU reminded us that Brexit negotiation remained in deadlock. Additionally, some PMI data from Eurozone suggested that momentum of recovery was quickly fading, in particular in the services sector. Yen is rising broadly today as stock markets turn into risk-off mode....
Dollar Weakens Again as Rebound Falters, PMIs Watched Today
Dollar is back under pressure as rebound attempt faltered quickly again. Nevertheless, New Zealand Dollar remains the worst one. Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest one in Asian session, lifted as crude oil rebounded quickly after a spike lower overnight. As for the week, Sterling and Yen are currently...
Sentiments Turn Cautious after ECB and Fed Minutes, Aussie and Kiwi Tumble
Global financial markets seemed to have turned into risk-off mode today, after both Fed and ECB sounded very cautious regarding economic outlook in their minutes. Swiss Franc extended recent volatility trading and gains broadly, followed by Sterling and Yen. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar completed this week's...
PBOC’s Restraint Monetary Policy will Continue to Support CNY vs USD. US-China Tensions as Major Downside Risk
Renminbi (a.k.a. RMB, CNY) has strengthened against US dollar over the past 3 weeks. While the broad-based USD weakness is the key reason, PBOC's neutral policy action over the past months has also led to renminbi's appreciation. We expect the phenomenon would persist, supporting renminbi, in coming months.
PBOC announced...
FOMC Minutes Revealed Rigorous Debate over Alternative Monetary Policy Tools
The FOMC minutes for the July meeting revealed that the members remained concerned about the outlook of economic recovery. They had discussed a number of tools for further easing, including forward guidance, asset purchases, and yield curve targets. Meanwhile, the members again stressed that fiscal support is particularly important...
Dollar Rebounds but Reversal Not Warranted Yet, Gold and Stocks Fall
Dollar staged a strong rebound overnight, reversing all of prior day's losses. The uninspiring FOMC minutes were a lift in a way that it provided no dovish elements for further selloff. Yet, the greenback is kept well below near term resistance levels against all major currencies. It also remains...
US Cushing Oil Stock Fell for First Time in Almost 2 Months. Oil Prices Dropped on Weaker Demand Prospect
Crude oil prices weakened despite decline in US inventory levels. At the video conference held by the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, oil producers warned that “the pace of recovery appeared to be slower than anticipated. Yet, they dismissed increasing output cut from the current deal. The report from...
Focus Turned to Swiss Franc Selloff While Dollar Stabilizes Mildly
Selling focus turns from Dollar to Swiss Franc today, which also drags down Sterling, and to a lesser extent Euro. Dollar stabilized a little bit but there is apparent strength for recovery yet. In particular, commodity currencies are generally stronger while Canadian Dollar shrugs off weaker than expected inflation...
Dollar Stays Pressured ahead of FOMC Minutes, Gold Retreats
Dollar remains generally pressured today even though selling momentum seems to be easing a little bit. A focus will be on FOMC minutes which is unlikely to provide anything about the next policy move. Instead, investors would be more eager to know how Fed would shape the results of...
Dollar Breaks Near Term Support, Starting Another Leg in Down Trend
Dollar's selloff accelerates entering into US session, taking out recent lows against all major currencies except Yen. Another leg in the near term down trend has started. Swiss Franc and Yen are the next weakest, together with New Zealand dollar. On the other hand, Sterling and Euro are both...
AUDNZD’s Rally on Yield Differential Looks Overextended
Recent strength in Australian dollar has sent AUDNZD to the highest level in 2 years. Notwithstanding the second wave of coronavirus outbreak, and the renewed lockdown measures, in Victoria, Aussie has remained firm. While all major currencies have appreciated in light of the broad-based USD weakness, AUD is the...
Yen Rebound Continues While Dollar Looks Vulnerable
Yen's rebound continues in relatively quiet trading in Asia. Risk aversion is not apparent as major indices outside of Japan are all in slight black. Instead, Yen traders could be reversing recent shorts as treasury yields pull back. Staying in the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar remains the worst...
Yen Rebounds as Treasury Yields Retreat, Dollar Stays Pressured in Range
Yen rises broadly today as global treasury yields appear to be turning south. In particular, US 10-year yield is back below 0.7 handle in pre-markets. Dollar is pressured but holds on to recently established range. But overall markets are mixed with major European indices bounded in tight range. Australian...
Euro Mildly Higher in Mixed Markets, Kiwi Down as Election Postponed
Euro strengthens mildly in generally mixed Asian markets today. There is no clear direction as Japan stocks diverge from others while gold and oil are rangebound. Canadian and Australian Dollar are following as the next strongest but movements are limited. Yen and Dollar are trading with an undertone. But...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Gold and Silver Futures Trimmed as Prices Pulled Back after Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 11, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -15 331 contracts to 520 935 for the week. Speculative long position declined -10 925 contracts, while shorts added +4 406. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Trades on USD Index Futures Continued to Shrank as US Real Yields Stay Negative
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 11, NET SHORT for USD Index futures rose +1 707 to 8 182 contracts. Speculative long positions dropped -2 152 contracts and short positions were down -445 contracts. Fed's ultra monetary easing has sent yields...
Yields Surged, Gold Corrected, But Dollar Got No Lift
It was a rather mixed week where there were conditions for a Dollar rebound, with surging treasury yield and correction in Gold. Yet, no apparent rally was seen. Yen was sold off generally, partly on coronavirus and recovery optimism. But the Swiss Franc was firm together with Euro.
Strong rally...