RBNZ Hints to Add Alternative Easing in Coming Months
As widely anticipated, RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 0.25% today. The cap of Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program, a.k.a. QE, also stays at NZD 100B. Meanwhile, the central bank reiterated the forward guidance that the OCR will be “held at 0.25% in accordance with the guidance issued...
Aussie and Kiwi Down on Easing Expectations, Dollar and Yen Firm
Commodity currencies tumble generally in Asian session today. New Zealand Dollar softens as RBNZ further affirm that it's in progress for more monetary easing, including negative interest rates. Aussie also tumble on increasing expectation of on imminent RBA rate cut in October. On the other hand, while US stocks...
SNB Preview : FX Intervention the Key Monetary Policy Tool to Curb CHF’s Strength
We expect SNB to leave the policy rate unchanged at -0.75%. While it does not rule out the possibility of further rate cut, the central bank's main tool is FX intervention to curb excessive strength in Swiss franc. Economic contraction in 2Q20 turned out to be less severe than...
Dollar Awaits Fuel for Committed Rally, Stocks Consolidate Losses
The overall markets are relatively steady today. Dollar attempted for a brief rally in early European session. But it quickly retreated together with mild recovery in stocks. Though, there seems to be no committed buying in the equities market yet, while US futures also point to lower open, risk...
Markets Stabilized after Selloff, Dollar Rally Still Unconvincing
Asian markets are trading mildly lower today, following the weakness in US overnight. While DOW dropped more than -900 pts during the session, it managed to pare back half of the losses to close down -509.72 pts only. Following that, Dollar and Yen retreated some gains while Gold also...
Stocks and Gold Tumble on Fear of Return to Lockdown, Dollar and Yen Jump
Risk aversion builds up momentum in European session and carries forward to the US, with DOW opening down more than -400 pts. New Zealand and Australian Dollars are trading broadly lower, while Sterling is also among the weakest on fear of return to coronavirus lockdown. On the other hand,...
Dollar Softens in Quiet Markets, RBNZ and SNB to Meet This Week
The markets are rather quiet in Asian session with Japan on holiday. Some selloff is seen in Hong Kong stocks but others simply ignored. The forex markets are generally stuck inside Friday's range, with Dollar and Swiss Franc trading with a soft tone. On the other hand, Aussie and...
RBNZ Preview – Waiting for More Hints on Negative Rate
After a big move in August, the RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 0.25% and the cap of Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) unchanged at NZD 100B. It is, however, expected to offer more indication on the alternative policy tools to be implemented. While we expect the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT of USD Index Futures Increased as Greenback’s Rebound Not Promising
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 15, NET SHORT for USD Index futures increased +2 482 to 8 240 contracts. Speculative long positions slipped -97 contracts and short positions gained +2 385 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Increased in Both Side as Crude Oil Price Lacks Direction
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 15, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +378 contracts to 449 744 for the week. Speculative long position rose +11 868 contracts, while shorts also gained +11 490 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Yen Surged Again, Dollar Rally Failed, Sterling Pared Losses
Yen ended up broadly as the strongest one last week, extending this month's rebound. Domestically, political uncertainty was cleared with Yoshihide Suga took up the job of Prime Minister, ensuring continuity of Abenomics. Externally, geopolitical risks at the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait heightened while US-China relations deteriorated...
Yen Rises Further in Flip-Flopping Markets
Yen picks up some upside momentum again today while the forex markets continue to flip-flop elsewhere. Australian Dollar turn softer, followed by Canadian and Swiss Franc. Kiwi is the second strongest next to Yen, followed by Sterling and Dollar. For the week, Yen remains the strongest one. There is...
Dollar Rally Fades, Sterling Pares Losses, Yen Still Firm
Dollar is back trading as the weakest one for the week as it's earlier rally attempt faded quickly. Though, Euro and Swiss Franc are not too far behind as the next weakest. Yen is also paring some of this week's gain but remains generally firm. New Zealand Dollar is...
Sterling Plummets as BoE Hints on Negative Rates, Yen Surges
Sterling drops broadly today as BoE minutes indicated that the central bank is already discussing implementation negative interest rates. On the other hand, Yen is currently the strongest one, extending this week's strong rally. Risk aversion and falling treasury yields are both helping the Yen higher. Dollar lost some...
BOE Voted 9-0 to Keep Policy Unchanged. Signaled to Discuss with Regulator about Negative Rate Implementation
BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. The asset purchase program also stayed at 745B pound in September. At the meeting, policymakers acknowledged stronger-than-expected recovery in the UK. Yet, they reiterated that the outlook remained highly uncertain as mainly brought about by the coronavirus pandemic....
Fed Shifted to Outcome-Based Forward Guidance, Upgraded Economic Projections
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged in September. There are substantial changes in the policy statement, reflecting the formal adoption of average inflation targeting. Updated economic projections revealed a more optimistic outlook for this year through to 2022. The Fed...
Dollar Surges as FOMC Risks Cleared, on Asian Risk Aversion
Dollar surges broadly today partly because FOMC announcement and projections overnight removed the risk of extra dovishness. Also, Hong Kong led decline in Asian stocks is providing extra support to the greenback. Yen is following closely as the second strongest for now. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar...
Crude Oil Price Rebounded as Production Halted by Hurricane while Inventory Fell
Crude oil price rebounded as hurricane Sally damaged production facilities while US inventory resumed decline last week. The front-month WTI crude oil contract extended gain for second day, rising to a 1.5- week high og US$40.34/bbl before settling at 40.16. The Brent contract also climbed higher. US Bureau of...
Yen Surges as Traders Look Forward to FOMC Projections
Yen rises broadly today as markets are awaiting Fed policy decision. The strength in Yen since last week seems to be related to inflation expectations. It first followed comments from an ECB official that the pandemic impact impact would eventually be demand dominate, and thus deflationary. Such view could...
Dollar Softens Mildly as Focus Turns to FOMC Statement and Projections
Dollar trades generally soft in Asian session but losses are so far limited. The greenback is actually still staying above last week's low against all but Yen and Kiwi. Major focus will turn to FOMC today and traders could finally commit to a direction, after getting Fed's new economic...