PMIs Suggest China’s Recovery Remained Intact in September. Yield Differential to Support CNY
The latest economic indicators show that China’s economy continued to recovery in September. NBS’ official manufacturing PMI climbed +0.5 point higher to 51.5 in September, beating consensus of 51.3. The non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 55.9 from 55.2 in August. The composite index gained +0.6 point to 55.1 last...
Dollar and Yen Pressured after Unconvincing Stock Rally
Dollar and Yen are generally weak in Asian, after being pressure overnight with a return to risk-on markets. US stocks were lifted on as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin "made a lot of progress in a lot of areas" with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on fresh stimulus. Yet, there was...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell for Three Straight Weeks, while Cushing Stock Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -0.57 mmb to 1421.11 mmb in the week ended September 25. Crude oil inventory dropped -1.98 mmb (consensus: +1.57 mmb) to 492.43 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Markets in Range, Trapped by Low Month-End Volatility
The forex markets are generally staying in tight range today, without much reaction to better than expected job data from US and GDP from Canada. Nor was there much movements after comments from ECB President and BoE Chief Economist. Subdued month-end trading is keeping volatility very low. Nevertheless, it's...
Sleepy Markets Yawn US Debate, Focus Back to Economic Data
Dollar and Yen recover some ground in Asian session but it's unsure if this week's pull back is completed yet. There were little reactions to the President debate of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Asian markets are mixed despite some solid data out of China. DOW future is currently...
Dollar Drops Further ahead of Trump-Biden Debate
Dollar drops broadly today, partly due to month-end flows, and partly as position adjustment ahead of the first one-on-one Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Nevertheless, Yen and Canadian Dollar are slightly weaker. On the other hand, Aussie and Kiwi are picking up some steam for a...
Dollar Soft as Focus Turns to Fed Speakers, But Yen Even Weaker
Asian markets trade with a mixed tone today despite strong rebound in the US overnight. Positive sentiments couldn't carry through to the session again. Nevertheless, Yen is trading slightly weaker in general, followed by Canadian and Dollar. Aussie and Kiwi are the firmer ones together with Sterling. In particular,...
Sterling Jumps on BoE Comments, Dollar Softens as Stocks Rebound
Sterling rises broadly today after BoE Deputy Governor indicated that negative interest rate is not imminent. Rebound in the Pound somewhat lifts other European majors too. Australian Dollar is following as the second strongest for now, with help from rebound in stocks. Dollar is trading broadly lower, paring last...
Crude Oil Prices Down in 3 out of 4 Weeks. Outlook Dependent on Pandemic, OPEC+ Compliance and Libya’s Output
Crude oil prices have declined for 3 out of the past 4 weeks. the most recent weakness has been driven by concerns over the demand outlook as a third wave of coronavirus outbreak has hit Europe. This is also a reason for the narrowing in WTI-Brent spread although the...
Aussie Recovers as Markets Pare Back Expectations on Imminent RBA Cut
The markets are relatively quiet in Asian session with an empty economic calendar. Aussie recovers mildly as markets are paring back expectations of imminent RBA rate cut in October. Even Westpac pushed back the forecast to November as the theme of "Team Australia", announcement of monetary and fiscal stimulus...
More Evidence Still Needed for Dollar’s Strength and Aussie’s Weakness
Dollar and Yen ended as the strongest ones last week as global stock markets tumble. There were concerns over resurgence in coronavirus infections in Europe, with worries over a return to lockdown. Though, the US markets ended not too badly after Friday's rebound. It's still not clear if the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT in USD Index Futures could Trim Next Week on Strong Rebound in Greenback
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 22, NET SHORT for USD Index futures increased -906 to 9 146 contracts. Speculative long positions dropped -1 424 contracts and short positions slipped -518 contracts. NET SHORT will likely shrink in the coming week...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold’s NET LENGTH Shrank amidst Worst Price Decline since March
Losing more than -4%, the Comex Gold futures marked its worst week since March amidst US dollar's rebound. The yellow metal's outlook remains bearish in the near-term after the downward breakout after consolation. We expect NET LENGTH to shrink further in the coming week. Crude oil futures recorded increase...
Dollar Firms Up Again ahead of Weekly Close
Dollar firms up again entering into US session, but it's so far held below yesterday's high against all but Swiss Franc. There is little reaction to weaker than expected growth in durable goods orders. New Zealand Dollar is surprisingly the strongest on for today, while Yen is the third....
Dollar Retreats as Risk Aversion Recedes, Focus Turns to Yen
Dollar and Yen retreat mildly today risk aversion recedes slightly. But as Asian markets struggle to find momentum for a rebound, risk aversion could come back any time before weekly close. As for the week, the greenback remains the strongest one, followed by Yen. Australian Dollar is the worst...
Dollar Rally Continues, Sterling Resilient, Franc Shrugs SNB
Dollar remains the strongest one for the week, followed by Yen, as risk aversion continue to dominate. The recovery attempts in European stocks appeared to have faded very quickly while DOW futures point another day of lower open. Sterling is relatively resilient, with some support from the new jobs...
SNB Expects Deflation to Stay Until 2Q21. Pledged to Intervene Exchange Rate as CHF Remains Highly Valued
As widely anticipated, SNB left the policy rate unchanged at -0.75%. It reiterated the view that Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and the commitment to intervene in the FX market. The central bank will publish data on money and foreign exchange market operations on a quarterly basis, compared with...
Dollar Powers Up as Risk Aversion Intensifies on Coronavirus Resurgence
Risk aversion continues to dominate the markets, on concern of another wave of coronavirus infects, as the Northern Hemisphere is entering in fall and winter. US stocks closed notably lower after brief initial rebound. Asian markets follow with heavy selling, with major indices in deep red. In the currency...
US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventories Fell Across the Board
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dived -7.48 mmb to 1421.68 mmb in the week ended September 18. Crude oil inventory dropped -1.64 mmb (consensus: +2.33 mmb) to 494.41 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...
Dollar Stays Strong But Yen Retreats With Rebound in Stock Markets
Dollar remains the strongest one for today but Swiss Franc and Sterling have overtaken as the next strongest. Sterling is some what helped by solid PMIs but Euro shrugged off the disappointing PMI readings. European stock markets are having a solid rebound today while US equities might further pare...