ECB Preview – More Stimulus to Come in December as Recovery Loses Momentum
Economic data released since the September signaled that the recovery might have lost momentum. This is a worrying signs as renewed lockdown measures in light of the second wave are expected to damage the recovery further. As a preparatory meeting for more stimulus in December, ECB will turn more...
Dollar Recovers Mildly as Markets Await BoC, BoJ, ECB and GDPs
Dollar recovers mildly in relatively quiet markets today while Aussie and Euro turn softer. But major pairs and crosses are generally keep well inside Friday's range, suggesting limited movements so far. Three central banks will meet this week including BoC, BoJ and then ECB. Lots of heavy weight economic...
Euro Strong as Funds Flow Out of American Assets, But Technical Pictures Mixed
Funds were flowing out of US assets last week as Dollar ended as the worst performing major currency. Treasury yields surged as bonds tumbled while stocks gyrated lower. But the movements were not decisive enough yet as the greenback still holds above recent lows against major currencies like Euro...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – US Dollar Resumed Weakness
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 20, USD Index futures returned to NET SHORT of 1 666 contracts. Speculative long positions decreased - 2042 contracts and short positions added +61 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures declined -2...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Precious Metals to Go Higher as US Dollar Sank
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 20, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +17 551 contracts to 490 348 for the week. Speculative long position rose +14 764 contracts, while shorts dropped -2 787 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
BOC Preview – Staying Cautious about the Uneven Recovery
BOC will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% next week’s meeting. After surprising unwinding of some operations last week, the rest of easing measures put in place since March should remain unchanged. Inter-meeting data flow shows that economic recovery is underway in Canada. However, the pace is...
Dollar Softens Again as Global Stocks Regain Ground ahead of Weekend
Dollar is back under pressure today as global stock markets strengthen mildly before weekend. Though, overall markets are relatively mixed as we're seeing some strengthen in both Swiss Franc, Euro and Aussie. On the other hand, Sterling, and Canadian are softer. The developments suggest that major pairs and crosses...
Euro Prone to Downside as PMIs Awaited, Traders Shrug US Debate
It appears that the stock markets couldn't care less about the last debate before US Presidential election. Major Asian indices are trading in right range with mild gains. Nevertheless, Yen is trying to lead Dollar for a comeback while European majors are losing their strong position. In particular, Euro...
Dollar Recovers Mildly after Job Data, Markets Tread Water
Dollar recovers in early US session, with help from better than expected job data. Yet, it remains the weakest one for the week at this point. Buying momentum for the greenback doesn't warrant a reversal yet. The forex markets are mixed for now, with mild weakness in Sterling and...
Sterling to Take the Limelight as Dollar Takes a Breather
Dollar recovers mildly in Asian session today but remains generally weak, as the worst performing one for the week so far. Sellers appear to be taking a breather for now, and wait for fresh development regarding fiscal stimulus, as well as the final Presidential debate before election. For now,...
OPEC+ Meeting Acknowledged Weak Demand Outlook. US Crude Inventory Slipped, while Gasoline Stockpile Gained for First Time in 3 Weeks
The meeting among OPEC+ producers to discuss about revision of output cuts was inconclusive. While a number of OPEC+ producers agreed that weak oil demand outlook might justify more reduction in output, it's yet to know how much more is needed. A greater problem is compliance. As we noted...
Dollar and US Treasuries Dive Together, Funds Moving Out?
Dollar tumbles sharply today together with US treasuries. 10-year yield breaks above 0.8% handle but that's giving no support to the greenback. Instead, in a rather unusual development, Yen surges sharply at the same time. Stock futures are just steady. There are talks about the renewed hope for a...
Dollar Pressured on US Stimulus Hope Again, Euro Stays Strong
Dollar is under some selling pressure since overnight as US politicians were still optimistic in closing a fresh stimulus deal by election. This appears to be the most volatility triggering theme for the near term for now. Commodity currencies are trying to recover in Asian session today but Aussie...
Euro and Swiss Franc Rally as Markets Expect More Negative Rates Elsewhere
Markets continue to be dominated by strength of Euro and Swiss Franc today. That comes in spite of surging coronavirus infections in Europe. Meanwhile, the deadlock of Brexit negotiations remain. Traders are apparently adding to bet that more global central banks, like RBA and BoE, are joining the negative...
Aussie Bears in Control on RBA, Euro Strength Continues
Australia's Dollar's decline is resuming today as RBA minutes, as well ass comments from a top official solidify the case for imminent easing in November. Weaker risk sentiments also weigh on commodity currencies in general, after US stocks reversed initial gains to close sharply lower. Euro and Swiss Franc...
RBA Minutes Reveal Strong Conviction to Further Easing in November
RBA's minutes for the October meeting offered more supports that further easing will be rolled out soon. Potential measures include rate cuts and asset purchases. The bottom line is that the policy rate will not go negative. Assistant Governor Christopher Kent's speech earlier today signaled strongly the easing bias....
Dollar Weakens on Renewed Stimulus Hope, Euro Surges
Dollar and Yen are back under notable selling pressure today. US investors are apparently ignoring continuing surge in global coronavirus infections, which broke 40m mark. Instead, there is renewed hope of fresh fiscal stimulus, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a pre-election deal remains possible. Meanwhile, UK and EU...
Sentiments Lifted Slightly by Upbeat Chinese Data, But Movements Limited
Commodity currencies follow Asian markets slightly higher today, with support from solid economic data from China. On the other hand, Euro and Swiss Franc are softer on concerns over record coronavirus infections and return to lockdown. Additionally, Euro could face more pressure if recent steep decline in German yields...
China’s GDP Growth Missed Consensus. Strong Activity Data Support Renminbi’s Outlook
The latest set of China's macroeconomic data is mixed in the headline. GDP growth in the third quarter came in below market expectation. However, major indicators such as industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all beat consensus, confirming recovery is underway. Against this backdrop, we expect PBOC...
Chaotic Markets With Many Themes Going On
It's a rather chaotic week with many themes developing. The first October surprise of US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infects seemed to have fade as he's back in election campaign. Just as challenger Joe Biden appeared to be widening lead, according to mainstream polls, another October surprise surfaced with...