Chance of Negative OCR Reduces as RBNZ More Confident About Economic Outlook
RBNZ announced that a Funding for Lending Program (FLP) will be implemented in “early December” with an initial size of about NZD 28B. Further details will be announced in coming weeks. The program aims at providing loans to commercial banks at low cost (e.g.: 0.25%). The central bank left...
Sterling Surges on Johnson’s Defeat in Lords, Markets Mixed Elsewhere
Sterling surges broadly today, as traders apparently cheers Prime Minister Boris Johnson's defeat in the Lords regarding his internal market bill. But the forex markets are relatively quiet elsewhere. New Zealand Dollar is currently the second strongest, following the Pound. Swiss Franc is the weakest, followed by Canadian and...
China Data – Inflation Slowed Markedly on Food Price; Trade Surplus Widened as Exports Growth Strongly
China’s inflation moderated in October. Headline CPI eased sharply to +0.5% y/y, from +1.7% a month ago. The decline was mainly driven by food price, of which growth decelerated to +2.2% from September’s +7.9%. Non-food price actually stayed flat at 0%, while core CPI also steadied at +0.5%. Concerning...
Markets Mixed as Vaccine Boost Fades, Dollar Support by Yields
The forex markets turned mixed in Asian session today as the boost from coronavirus vaccine faded quickly. The close in US stocks overnight was rather disappointing and DOW ended up just 2.95%. NASDAQ has indeed closed with -1.53% loss. In the currency markets, Yen is trying to recover but...
Gold Got Dumped on Vaccine Hopes and Removal of Election Overhang
Pfizer coronavirus vaccine news has sharply lifted market sentiment. As the positive news raised hopes that the pandemic will soon be under control and global economy will be back on track, gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset, dived. The benchmark Comex contract slumped almost US$100/oz to settle at US$1853.2/oz....
Yen Selling Takes Off as World in Euphoria on Coronavirus Vaccine News
The world, at least the financial markets part, is in euphoria today on news that tens of millions doses of coronavirus vaccine are ready this year, to pull it out of the coronavirus pandemic that took away over 1.2 millions lives. DOW future is in massive rally, up around...
Yen and Dollar Heading Lower as Asian Markets Rally
Yen and Dollar weaken generally in Asian session today as strong risk appetite continues. Notable rally is also seen in gold today, extending its near term rally. New Zealand Dollar is currently leading other commodity currencies higher. European majors are generally mixed. Focus would turn to the neverending Brexit...
RBNZ Preview – Introducing New Lending Program with Dovish Tone Maintained
The focus of this week's RBNZ meeting is on details of the Funding for Lending (FLP) program. We expect this program would be implemented before the end of the year and would be the key policy tool of the central bank in the future. Concerning other monetary measures, the...
Stocks Ready for Upside Breakout, But Yen Crosses Seem Not Agreeing
Politics aside, stock investors were the biggest winners of US presidential elections, while Dollar holders were the losers. The greenback ended as the worst performing one, followed by Yen by a wide margin. Australian Dollar shrugged of RBA easing and ended as the strongest, leading other commodity currencies. European...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD’s Weakness Expected to Lift NET LENGTH in Precious Metals Next Week
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 3, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -29 360 contracts to 442 460 for the week. Speculative long position declined -20 633 contracts, while shorts gained +8 997 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Index Futures to Return to NET SHORT Next Week as US election Results Get Clearer
The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report covered the period just before the US presidential election. During the week, bets on US futures slipped on both sides amidst the highly uncertain election outcome. With Joe Biden on the way to become the next president, risk appetite has increased significantly....
Dollar Selling Continues Despite Solid NFP, Euro Surges
Dollar's selloff continues today despite stronger than expected employment data. Though, selling focus has turned to against Euro and Swiss Franc. Australian Dollar is taking a breather, together with global stock markets. There is no doubt that Dollar will end as the worst performing one for the week, followed...
Dollar Remains the Weakest While US Stocks Could Make New Record High
Dollar's decline is slowing a little bit in Asian session but there is no sign of a turnaround. The greenback remains the worst performing one for the week, followed by Yen, on strong risk-on markets. Australian Dollar is the strongest one, followed by other commodity currencies. FOMC meeting overnight...
Fed Discussed Options to Adjust QE, More Details Probably Out Next Month
As widely anticipated, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The decisions were made unanimously. The members acknowledged that economic recovery remained under way. Yet, they warned of the downside risks to growth amidst the huge uncertainty of the coronavirus...
Dollar Selling Takes Off as Stocks Extend Powerful Rally
Dollar's selloff finally takes off as market enters into US session today. While the final result of US presidential election is still unknown, investors couldn't wait to push stocks higher. At the time of writing, Canadian Dollar is trading as a distant second weakest. Sterling is also relatively weak...
BOE’s QE Expansion Exceeds Expectations as Economy Heads for Double Dip
While leaving the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, BOE raised the size of asset purchases (QE) by +135B pound to 875 pound. Both decisions were made unanimously. The expansion came in larger than we had anticipated. The staff also revised lower GDP growth outlook, now expecting the economy to...
Stocks Surge on US Elections, Dollar and Yen Weak But No Follow Through Selling Yet
Movements in the forex markets in reaction to the US elections were relatively indecisive, comparing to the strong risk-on moves in the stocks. There is no clear follow through selling in Dollar and Yen so far, while commodity currencies are struggling to extend gains. Focuses will now turn to...
US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Slumped
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the week ended October 30. Crude oil inventory dived -8 mmb (consensus: +0.89 mmb) to 484.43 mmb. Stockpile increased in 4 out...
Yen and Franc Rise as US Election Has No Clear Winner Yet
Volatility continues today as US Presidential election vote counts are released. The final results are unknown at this point, narrowed down the results of just a few states. At the time of writing, Yen is the stronger one, followed by Swiss Franc. Sterling and Kiwi are the weaker ones....
Roller-Coaster Ride Started Even Before US Election Results
Much volatility was seen in the financial markets in the past 24-hours, as traders were pre-trading US elections results. At the time of writing, the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is very tight, totally different from the picture portraited by most main steam media. Overall picture in...