FOMC Minutes: Fed Seriously Considered Adjusting QE
The minutes for the FOMC meeting in November shows that policymakers were cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery and the impacts of the monetary policy tools on the economic outlook. As negative interest rate has been ruled out, the Fed's future policy tool is dependent on asset purchases (QE)....
Dollar and Yen Stay Weak in Quiet Pre-Holiday Trading
Markets are generally rather quiet in Asian session today, with Thanksgiving holiday in the US in sight. Risk markets are taking a breather after the earlier rally, so do the selloffs in Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc. Nevertheless the trio remain the weakest ones for the week. On the...
US Crude Inventory Surprisingly Dropped Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -1.07 mmb to 1353.84 mmb in the week ended November 20. Crude oil inventory dropped -0.75 mmb (consensus: +0.13 mmb) to 488.72 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Dollar Falling Towards Key Near Term Support Levels after Mixed Data
Dollar's sell-off slowed mildly as stocks turned into consolidation ahead of Thanksgiving holiday in the US. But for now, the greenback remains the second worst performing for the week, just next to Yen, followed by Swiss Franc. Commodity currencies are strongest together with Sterling. Mixed economic data from US...
Questionable OPEC Solidarity Casts Doubt on Output Cut Commitments
While vaccine news should be bullish for the oil market, the rally in crude oil price proves short lived. Ahead of next week’s meeting to decide extension of output cuts, a long-term OPEC member, the UAE, reportedly has shown discontent about the output cut deal. There are rumors that...
Full Risk-On Market With Upside Breakout in DOW and Oil
Markets are in full risk-on mode for now, with DOW closing above 30k handle for the first time overnight. Asian stocks are also generally higher, with strong rally in Nikkei and HSI. WTI oil prices powered through a key near term resistance level while Gold is set to break...
Euro Resilient Despite Deterioration Business Expectations, Dollar Mixed
Commodity currencies remain the strongest one for today with help from risk-on markets. Euro is also firm, shrugging off deterioration in business expectations as indicated by Ifo's data. Though, selling is focusing on Swiss Franc and Sterling for now. Dollar dropped notably earlier today but there is no clear...
NZD Surges on RBNZ Expectations, Dollar Rebound Short-Lived
Commodity currencies surge broadly today on the back of strong risk appetite, especially in Japan. New Zealand Dollar is additionally boosted after the government asked RBNZ to considering surging house prices in monetary policy moves. Dollar tried to rebound overnight, with the help from downside breakout in Gold. The...
British Pound Remains Strong with Possible Trade Deal in Sight
The market has been thrilled amid signs of progress in the EU-UK deal. Last week, EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen noted that there was “more movement” on the negotiations "difficult weeks with very, very slow progress". Yet, she warned that there were "some metres to the finish...
Sterling Accelerates Higher on Vaccine News, Dollar Resumes Selloff
Dollar's selloff resumes today as stocks rallies on more positive news on coronavirus treatment. British drugmaker AstraZeneca said it's vaccine could be around 90% effective, and as many as 200 millions doses could be ready by year end. The news also lifts Sterling to be the best performer so far...
Sterling Rises on Trade Deal News, Dollar Soft
Sterling opens the week on firm footing as lifted by UK's trade deal with Canada. There's also report on increasing expectation of a deal with EU to be sealed this week. New Zealand Dollar is also firm after strong Q3 retail sales rebound. On the other hand, Dollar, Yen...
Markets Turned into Consolidation, With Conflicting Signals
Markets, including stocks, gold and currencies, were generally bounded in consolidative mode last week. News regarding coronavirus vaccines failed to give sentiments another boost. Instead, investors are waiting for fresh inspirations. Dollar ended as the worst performing one, but stayed inside prior week's range, except versus Kiwi. Euro, and...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short in GBP Futures could Trim on Signs of Resolving Brexit Deadlock
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 17, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -154 contracts to 974. Speculative long positions increased +937 contracts and short positions gained +783 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures fell -1 327...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Lower Crude Oil Price Trimmed Significantly
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 17, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +17 273 contracts to 480 811 for the week. Speculative long position added +4 502 contracts, while shorts slumped -12 771 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Strong Retail Sales Data from Canada and UK Ignored
Dollar would probably end as the worst performing for the week, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc. But they're generally staying familiar range, like other major pairs and crosses. Investors are struggling to decide on a direction, despite the news of vaccines, or the split between US treasury and...
Consolidations Continue in Mixed Markets, Dollar Downside Breakout in Favor
Consolidation trading continues with US stocks closing mildly higher overnight while Asian markets are mixed. Gold also lost some downside momentum just ahead of 1850 key support level. In the forex markets, range trading continues in general with Aussie and Sterling gaining some grounds today. Yen and Canadian are...
Dollar Still in Recovery Despite Rise in Initial Jobless Claims
Dollar rises mildly today despite the first rise in initial jobless claims in five weeks. Euro and Swiss Fran are following closely. Global markets are still engaging in consolidative trading, with mild weakness in European equities and US futures. Australian Dollar is leading New Zealand Dollar lower. Still, there...
Dollar Recovers in Consolidative Markets, Coronavirus Cases and Restrictions Weigh on Sentiments
Consolidative trading continue as Dollar rises in general in Asian session together, followed by Swiss Franc. On the the other hand, Sterling is reversing some of this week's gains together with Aussie and Kiwi. News on coronavirus vaccines are unable to give investor sentiments further lift. Instead, concerns are...
US Crude Inventory Increased for a Second Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -10.16 mmb to 1354.91 mmb in the week ended November 13. Crude oil inventory gained +0.77 mmb (consensus: +1.65 mmb) to 489.48 mmb. Stockpile increased in 3 out...
Yen Mildly Higher in Subdued Markets, Dollar and Euro Soft
Dollar and Euro are both trading mildly lower in a relatively subdued, consolidative markets today. Yen and Kiwi are, on the other the stronger ones. There is no clear sing of range breakout yet. Pfizer provided another piece of upbeat news on coronavirus vaccines. The final results from late-stage...