Sterling Softens as Brexit Talks Drag On, Yen and Swiss Mildly Higher
The forex markets are quiet in a typical Asian session on Monday. Yen and Swiss Franc are trading slightly higher as Asian stocks pull back from recent rally. While exports number from China look strong, imports growth clearly lagged behind. Sterling is currently the weaker one as Brexit negotiations...
ECB Preview – Policy Recalibration to Focus on PEPP and TLTRO
Given the strong hint in the October meeting, the ECB is prone to add monetary easing measures at Thursday’s meeting. We expect to see increase in the size of PEPP and adjustment of TLTRO. As the policy rates have been staying in the negative territory for years, it is...
Dollar Index Might Find Temporary Support at 90 after Down Trend Resumption
Selloff in the Dollar was the main theme in the currency markets last week. With the arrival of coronavirus vaccines, the global economy looks set to return to normal next year, despite some cautious comments from central bankers. Yen might look worst than Dollar but it is indeed still...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Further Downside Risk for Gold Limited
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 1, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -5 474 contracts to 517 165 for the week. Speculative long position gained +4 190 contracts, while shorts rose +9 664 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Sterling and Loonie Strengthened while US Dollar Lacked Direction
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 1, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +321 contracts to 3 075. Speculative long positions increased +4 061 contracts and short positions gained +4 382 contracts. The greenback continued to move without direction. Concerning...
Canadian Dollar Boosted Further by Job Data, Greenback Shrugs NFP
Canadian Dollar is given another boost in early US session after stronger than expected job data. In the background, the Loonie has already risen following higher oil prices. Dollar, on the other hand, has little reaction to much worse than expected non-farm payroll report. For the week, Dollar and...
Canadian Dollar Follows Oil Higher, Dollar Looks Forward to NFP
Canadian Dollar is trading generally higher in Asian session, with support from upside break out in oil prices. But Aussie and Kiwi are soft. Dollar is taking a breather in Asian session after yesterday's selloff, as focus turns to non-farm payrolls report. For the week, Dollar and Yen remain...
OPEC+ to Raise Output from January 2021
OPEC+ finally reached an output cut deal, agreeing to increase production by +0.5M bpd from January 2021. The outcome was slightly surprising as the market had anticiapted an extension of output cut fro three months until March 2021. We believe the decision was a compromise among producers of conflicting...
Dollar Selloff Accelerates Despite Jobless Claims, Gold Eyes 1850 Resistance
Dollar's selloff accelerates today and better than expected jobless claim data provide no support. European majors are generally firm, with Sterling leading the way this time. But the rally in the Pound is unconvincing so far, with uncertainties over Brexit trade talks. Commodity currencies are relatively mixed, with Canadian...
Yen Down on Surging US Yields, Europeans Stay Strong
Yen trades generally lower today as pressured by surging US treasury yields and mild risk-on sentiments. Dollar and commodity currencies are not too far behind. European majors continue to be strong as led by Euro and Swiss Franc. Sterling is not performing too badly against others as traders are...
US Crude Oil Inventory Dropped Less than Anticipated. Price Steadies as Market Awaits OPEC Decicions
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks added +0.12 mmb to 1353.96 mmb in the week ended November 27. Crude oil inventory slipped -0.68 mmb (consensus: -2.36 mmb) to 488.04 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...
Sterling Hammered on Brexit Uncertainty, Swiss Franc Surges
Selloff in Sterling is the main theme for today. UK become the first country to approve Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine and shots are due next week. But the good news was overshadowed by Brexit uncertainties. As the negotiation deadline looms it's reported that EU is insisting not rushing to a bad...
EUR/USD Upside Breakout as US Stocks Extend Record Run
Dollar and Yen were solid off broadly overnight as S&P 500 and NASDAQ extended record runs. More importantly, the greenback has finally broke through a key support level against Euro, confirming down trend resumption. European majors are currently the strongest ones as led by the common currency. Australian Dollar...
Stocks Start the Month Strong, But No Downside Breakout in Dollar Yet
Yen and Dollar are generally softer today as markets open December on firm footing. Australia Dollar is following as third weakest as diplomatic tension with China worsens. On the other hand, Euro is leading Swiss Franc higher. Manufacturing data from China and UK indicate sustainable recovery for now, while...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – US Dollar on Defensive as Risk Appetite Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 24, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +1 780 contracts to 2 754. Speculative long positions increased +107 contracts and short positions gained +1 887 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Stronger Crude Oil Price as Vaccine News Lifted Sentiment
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 24, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +41 828 contracts to 522 39 for the week. Speculative long position gained +34 912 contracts, while shorts fell -6 916 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
RBA Remains Cautiously Optimistic with Better-than-Expected Recovery, Pledged to Do More if Needed
As widely expected RBA left all the monetary policy measures unchanged in December. While acknowledging the “better-than-expected” economic recovery, the members reiterated that the outlook remains dependent on policy support.
On economic developments, the central bank noted that “the economic recovery is under way and recent data have generally been...
Loonie and Sterling Firmer in Dull Month-End Trading
Overall, the markets are relative quite today, in month end trading. Stocks are struggling in tight range, indifferent to news of Modern's plan to see US and EU clearance for their vaccine. In the currency markets, Sterling is currently the strongest one, awaiting news on Brexit trade talks. Canadian...
RBA Preview: Cautiously Optimistic over Recovery; QE Expected to Increase Further in 2021
After some big moves in November, we believe the RBA will stay put at this week’s meeting. Given the good news about vaccine and the steady decline in the country’s coronavirus cases and, we do not feel surprise if the members turn more upbeat this month.
Economic data released since...
Gold Selloff Resumes, Markets Shrug Solid Data from Japan, China and New Zealand
Asian markets are generally mixed despite some solid data from Japan, China and New Zealand. Yen is lifted mildly by the relatively optimistic economic outlook. Sterling is also slightly firmer after UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab indicated Brexit negotiations are "down to really two basic issues" only. Dollar, Canadian...