Sterling in Free Fall as No-Deal Brexit Could Become Reality… Soon
Sterling was in free fall last week after both UK and EU admitted that a no-deal Brexit is more likely than not. Negotiation deadline was ended to end of Sunday. Euro and Dollar, followed as the next weakest and focus turned to rally in commodity currencies. In particular, Australian...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold Price Rebounded after Correction
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 8, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures decreased -2 536 contracts to 514 629 for the week. Speculative long position fell -6 251 contracts, while shorts dropped -3 715 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Weakened Further while GBP Slumped on Concerns over No-Deal Brexit
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 8, NET SHORT of USD Index futures more than doubled to 6 486 contracts. Speculative long positions decreased -500 contracts and short positions gained +2 911 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
Sterling Accelerates Lower as No-Deal Brexit Looking Very, Very Likely
Sterling's selloff accelerates further today after leaders from both EU and UK admitted that their negotiations positions are still part. No-deal Brexit is now seen as the most likely scenario, and we should know very soon by the end of Sunday. Dollar and Yen recover mildly today, on mild...
Australian Dollar Accelerates Up with Iron Ore Prices, Euro Capped after Post ECB Rally
Accelerating rally in iron ore prices pushes Australian broadly higher today, on the back of steadily firm risk sentiment. The Aussie is currently the strongest one for the week, followed by New Zealand Dollar, while Canadian is not far away, with help from oil prices. Sterling remains the worst...
ECB Extends PEPP, APP and TLTROs to At Leaset Until Mid-2022
As promised, the ECB “recalibrated” the existing monetary policy measures at the December meeting. The aim is to ensure that the current level of stimulus remains in presence through to 2020. On the economic projections, the staff revised lower the GDP growth forecast for 2021 but higher for 2022....
Dollar Dives as Jobless Claims Surge, Euro Firm as ECB Delivers
Dollar falls broadly in early US session after much worse than expected jobless claims data, confirming the impact of the current wave of coronavirus pandemic. Yen is not far behind for now as second weakest. But Sterling is also facing some selling pressure on Brexit impasse. Commodity currencies are...
Sterling Softens on Brexit Impasse, Euro Awaits ECB
Sterling softened again after the Brussels meeting ended with nothing more than comments that UK and EU are still far apart. Yet, traders are still holding their bets for now. Yen and Dollar also shrug off the deep pull back in US stocks overnight. Some fresh selling is seen...
US Crude Oil and Petroleum Inventory Rose as Oil Prices Picked Up
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +19.93 mmb to 1373.89 mmb in the week ended December 9. Crude oil inventory rose 15.19 mmb (consensus: -1.42 mmb) to 503.23 mmb. Stockpile increased in 4 out...
BOC Upbeat about Vaccine but Remained Cautious about Slow Global Recovery
As widely anticipated, BOC left all its monetary policy measures unchanged. Policymakers acknowledged the economic recovery since the last meeting. Yet they cautioned about the resurgence in coronavirus cases and the potential impacts on related restrictions on the economic outlook. The central bank welcomed the vaccine news but warned...
Sterling Rebounds ahead of Johnson’s Brussels Trip, Euro and Swiss Soften
Sterling rebounds strongly today on hope that the physical meeting between the leaders of UK and EU would yield some positive progress on post Brexit trade talks. Yet, traders are not too committed on the bullish side yet, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated his hard-line stance. Australian Dollar...
China Fell into Deflation First Time in More than a Decade
The country recorded deflation for the first time since October 2009. Headline CPI contracted -0.5% y/y in November, compared with consensus of a flat reading and a +0.5% gain in October. Food inflation dropped -2% y/y in November following a +2.2% gain in October. Of which egg and pork...
Markets Returning to Risk-on Mode, Dollar Vulnerable to More Downside
Dollar and Yen are back under some selling pressure today, as markets seem to be returning to risk-on mode. NASDAQ hit another record high overnight, and Asian markets are generally trading in black. The greenback's weakness is also seen as it's vulnerable to breaking a key psychological level against...
Dollar and Yen Turn Softer as Markets Stuck in Range Trading
Trading in the forex markets is rather subdued today. Major pairs and crosses are staying inside yesterday's range for now. Dollar and Yen turn softer. Sterling is in a weak recovery, but lacks follow through buying. It's too hard for traders to commit to a bet on a trade...
BOC Preview: Keeping Powder Dry While Reiterating Stimulus will Last For Years
After the adjustment in asset purchases in October, we expect BOC to keep the powder dry this week, at its last meeting in the year. Policymakers will caution about the rising number of coronavirus cases and economic impacts of tighter restrictive measures, while noting positive news about vaccine. The...
Sterling Pares Losses as Johnson Decides to Travel to Brussels on Brexit Talks
Sterling pares back some of its losses as traders refused to add to bet on no-deal Brexit for now. Though, the Pound remains generally weak in Asian session today. Markets are relatively quiet elsewhere with stocks trading in mixed mode. Treasury yields also gave back some of last week's...
Sterling Falls Sharply on Brexit Deadlock, Swiss Franc Surges
Sterling is heavily sold off today as risk of no-deal Brexit is increasing with no major breakthrough in the never-ending negotiations. It's even unsure if talks will be concluded today, or continues till Wednesday. An European Commission spokesman even refused to "speculate on a last chance date" for the...
Sterling Softens as Brexit Talks Drag On, Yen and Swiss Mildly Higher
The forex markets are quiet in a typical Asian session on Monday. Yen and Swiss Franc are trading slightly higher as Asian stocks pull back from recent rally. While exports number from China look strong, imports growth clearly lagged behind. Sterling is currently the weaker one as Brexit negotiations...
ECB Preview – Policy Recalibration to Focus on PEPP and TLTRO
Given the strong hint in the October meeting, the ECB is prone to add monetary easing measures at Thursday’s meeting. We expect to see increase in the size of PEPP and adjustment of TLTRO. As the policy rates have been staying in the negative territory for years, it is...
Dollar Index Might Find Temporary Support at 90 after Down Trend Resumption
Selloff in the Dollar was the main theme in the currency markets last week. With the arrival of coronavirus vaccines, the global economy looks set to return to normal next year, despite some cautious comments from central bankers. Yen might look worst than Dollar but it is indeed still...