Aussie to Gain Further from Global Reflation Theme, Limited Impact from China’s Boycott
The global reflation theme of 2021 should continue to support AUDUSD. With the cash rate at the effective lower bound, RBA also extended asset purchases worth of AUD100B until mid-2021. Yet, it appears that there is little the central bank can do to curb the currency strength. Risks from...
Dollar Declines Further, Oil Up on Production Cuts
Dollar's decline resumed overnight and stays soft in Asian session today. Though, intensity of the selloff remains relatively weak. FOMC minutes is a feature today but that's unlikely to provide any inspiration for the greenback. Sterling is indeed still the worst performing one for the week for now, as...
Dollar Weakens in Quiet Markets, But Holding in Range
Dollar weakens again in rather quiet markets today. But there is no committed selling so far, as the greenback is staying inside yesterday's range. European majors also soften, on lockdown concerns, and shrug of solid German economic data. Commodity currencies are stronger in general, even though risk markets are...
Sterling Down on Lockdown, Dollar Mixed Despite Stocks Selloff
Sterling is currently trading as one of the weakest, as weighed down by the return to tough nationwide lockdown. Selloff in the Pound in crosses is keeping Euro and Swiss Franc afloat. Dollar attempted a rebound overnight, with the pull back in stocks. But there is apparently no follow...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Decline in Net Length Seen in Both Crude Oil and Gold as Traders Took Profit at Year-End
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 29, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -13 971 contracts to 511 731 for the week. Speculative long position fell -9 904 contracts, while shorts gained +4 067 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Index Finished 2020 in Net Short, Losing 6%
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 29, NET SHORT of USD Index futures slipped -318 contracts to 14 557. Speculative long positions gained +1 106 contracts and short positions added +788 contracts. USD Index dropped about -6% last year. Concerning European...
Dollar Breaking Down as Euro and Gold Jump
Dollar's selloff intensifies somewhat today, with solid risk appetite in the background. Though, Sterling is slightly weaker entering into US session. On the other hand, Euro and Swiss Franc are the strongest for now. Commodity currencies are also struggling to pick up buying despite rally in oil prices and...
JPY to Continue Grind against USD on Policy Convergence, Reduced Capital Outflow and Current Account Surplus
Japanese yen gained +5% against US dollar last year. The strength was only modest, compared with about +9% gains of AUD, EUR and CHF. Notwithstanding the lackluster improvement in Japan’s inflation outlook and exhaustion of BOJ’s stimulus, we expect Japanese yen to extend its modest gain against the greenback...
Dollar Trades Lower as Markets Open the Year on Firm Footing
Dollar trades generally lower today as Asian markets ex-Japan open the year on strong footing. Investors are generally riding on optimism of vaccine rollouts and an eventual sustainable global recovery. Though, for the short term, Japan is facing risk of more lookdowns while coronavirus infections in the US could...
Euro to Stay Positive against USD in 2021, though with Upside Limited
After gaining almost +10% this year, we expect EURUSD to strengthen further in 2021. While Eurozone continues to struggle with slow recovery and subdued inflation, the broad-based weakness in US dollar is anticipated to support the pair. As we mentioned in the previous report, we are bearish over US...
USD/JPY Accelerating Down as Dollar Selloff Continues
Dollar remains the worst performing one for today, after earlier downside breakout. Though, selling focus has shifted away from Euro. Currently, Australian Dollar an Sterling are the strongest one, followed by New Zealand Dollar. But Yen buying is accelerating in early US session. It's unsure who will end up...
Dollar Sellers are Back as EUR/USD Makes New High
Dollar's selloff picked up again as year end approaches. While US stocks took a breath overnight, Asia markets ex-Japan is enjoying some solid buying for now. While Euro is strong against Dollar, it's mixed against other European majors. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar is clearly lagging behind Aussie and Kiwi in...
Euro Surges in Quiet Markets, Yen Dives with Nikkei’s Strong Breakout
Euro's rally is a focus in rather quiet markets today. Clearance of no-deal Brexit risk was a positive for the common currency. There's additional boost from rumors that a EU-China investment deal is likely this week. However, we'd like to point out that European Commission formally (in a statement)...
Dollar and Yen Weaken Again on Strong Risk-on Market
Dollar turns softer again in Asian session today as markets are back in full risk on mode. Following the record runs in US, Nikkei is also hitting new 30-year high. Yen is following as second weakest for now. However, risk appetite is not clearly seen elsewhere. Australian and Canadian...
Sterling Retreats after Failing Breakout, Dollar Recovers
Global stock markets are lifted by US fiscal stimulus as well as Brexit trade deal. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are set to extend recent record runs, as indicated by futures. Though, the movements in the forex markets are relatively subdued. Sterling is paring some of last week's gains, after...
Dollar Softens after Trump Signed Pandemic Relief Bill, Sterling Mildly High on Brexit Trade Deal
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are the relatively weaker ones in quiet markets today. Asian investors are lifted slightly after US President Donald Trump signed the massive USD 2.3T package that contains a USD 900B pandemic relief, while also averted government shutdown. Sterling and Euro are the firmer ones...
Last-Minute Brexit Deal Reached. GBP Upside Limited with Good News Already Priced in
A last-minute Brexit trade deal has been reached just before the Christmas. the outcome is largely inline with our expectations. As a no-deal Brexit is avoided, BOE should be able to keep its powder dry for the year to come. The chance of negative interest rate has also been...
US Dollar to Weaken Further Gradually in 2021
The DXY index will likely record a -6% fall in 2020, the first decline in 3 years. Although US economic recovery should lend support to the dollar, exceptionally accommodative monetary policy, widening deficit (exacerbated by the new round of fiscal stimulus) and reduced demand for safe-haven asset should keep...
Sterling Rises as Brexit Deal Said to be Pretty Much There
Sterling rises broadly in early US session on rumor that Brexit trade deal is "pretty much there". But just like recent price actions, upside of the Pound is capped so far, waiting for confirmation. Dollar turns softer after a mixed batch of economic data, while firmer risk sentiment also...
Trading Remains Subdued as Some US Data Awaited
Trading remains rather subdued with markets already in holiday mode. Sterling has the potential to explode with wild moves, but we're so far disappointed by the lack of progress in Brexit trade negotiations. The surge in cases of the coronavirus, with threats of a new strain, also kept risk...