Markets Down after Roller-Coaster Rides, Dollar Upside Still Capped
January ended with an exceptionally volatility week. While GME occupied a lot of headlines, there were other important developments like vaccines, US stimulus, and central bank expectations. Sterling ended as the strongest one with traders paring bets on negative interest rate of BoE. The same went for New Zealand...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Silver Price Rallied on Safe-Haven Demand as Wall Street Slumped
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 26, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures dropped -3 972 contracts to 504 612 for the week. Speculative long position rose +11 560 contracts, while shorts jumped +15 532 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – US Dollar Rebounded but Sustainability is in Doubt
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 26, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +442 contracts to 14 719. Speculative long positions slipped -71 contracts, and short positions increased +371 contracts. Bets on both sides were limited as traders doubted how...
Canadian Dollar Rebounds on Strong GDP Growth, Dollar Turns Soft Despite Risk-Off
Canadian Dollar rises broadly in early US session, with the help from better than expected GDP data. Euro is also firmer on German and French GDP data. While markets are back in risk-off mode, Yen, and to a lesser extent Dollar and Swiss Franc, turn softer. As for the...
High Volatility Continues in Markets, USD/JPY Upside Breakout
Markets continues to engage very volatile trading, with US stocks and treasury yield staged strong rebounds overnight. Though, the moves are not totally followed by Mixed Asian markets. As for currencies, weakness in Australian and Canadian Dollars appear to be the more persistent near term theme. But Yen is...
Euro Overtakes Dollar Investor Sentiment Stabilized, Near Term Support Defended
Overall, the financial markets are mixed as investor sentiment stabilized. European indices are already reversing initial losses while US futures point to higher open. Commodity currencies are staying generally weak. But buying focus is turning away from Dollar and Yen, to Euro. At the time of writing, the common...
Dollar Jumps on Sentiments U-Turn, But Upside Still Capped
The sharp turn in risk sentiments overnight pushed "safe-haven" currencies generally higher. Among them, Dollar is currently outperforming both Swiss Franc and Yen. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is leading other commodity currencies lower. Euro and Sterling are mixed, with the Pound having a slight upper hand.
Technically, the...
Fed Indicated that QE Tapering is Premature and Bar to Adjust Policy is High
The December FOMC meeting contained little news. However, Chair Powell sent a clear indication that tapering is “premature” for the time being and that the bar to adjust the monetary policy is higher. The Fed left all measures unchanged at the meeting. The Fed funds rate stays at 0-0.25%...
Crude Oil Rebounded as US Inventory Declined. Petroleum Inventory Mixed
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -11.71 mmb to 1321.88 mmb in the week ended January 22. Crude oil inventory dropped -9.91 mmb (consensus: +0.43 mmb) to 476.65 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Germany Slashes Growth Forecast, UK Tightens Border, Risk Appetite Recedes
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc strength again today, as dragged down by the decline in European stocks. DOW future is also losing -300pts at the time of writing. Sentiments are slightly weighed down by UK's plan to impose tougher border measures. Germany slashed this year's growth forecasts. Commodity currencies...
Dollar Mixed Awaiting FOMC, Sterling Attempting Upside Breakout
Markets are generally staying in consolidative mode for now, except that Sterling appears to be the stronger one. There is no follow through selling in Dollar so far, as traders await some guidance from FOMC statement and press conference today. Australian Dollar has little reaction to stronger than expected...
Dollar Turns Soft as European Stocks Surge, Sterling and Commodity Currencies Jump
European stocks are trading generally higher today but no equivalent strength is see in the US pre-markets. Investors seemed to be lifted by news that EU, with backing from Germany, is going to introduce restrictions on COVID-19 vaccines over sudden supply cuts by AstraZeneca and Pfizer. There is little...
Worsened Demand/Supply Balance Suggests Limited Upside for Crude Oil Prices in Near-Term
Crude oil prices consolidate narrowly around 11-month high. After rebounding about 20% from the March low, upside momentum appears fading. Traders are increasingly concerned about the demand outlook which could be hurt by resurgence in coronavirus cases in China. The Chinese government reported 793 new cases last week, compared...
Euro, Sterling and Swiss Interplay Eyed as Volatility in Stocks and Yields Shrugged
The forex markets are very quiet in Asian session today as consolidative trading continues. The sharp decline in US treasury yields overnight, and the pull back in Asian stocks, triggered little reaction in currencies. Dollar and Yen are the slightly firmer ones for today so far, while commodity currencies...
Euro Lost Upside Momentum While Stocks Pull Back after German Ifo
As European stocks turned south after initial trading, US futures also also dragged down. Overall market sentiments turned mixed after a bright start in Asia. Dollar is recovering mildly but commodity currencies remain the strongest one so far, as led by New Zealand Dollar. There is apparently some pressure...
Asia Opens in Risk On Mode, New Zealand Dollar Outperforms
It's the same old story as Asian markets open in risk-on mode. Commodity currencies strengthen broadly, but led by New Zealand Dollar this time. On the other hand, Swiss Franc, Yen and Dollar are the weaker ones, while Euro and Sterling are mixed. Trading could be subdued today with...
FOMC Preview – Cautious about Economic Weakness but Fiscal Stimulus should lend Support
The FOMC meeting in the coming week will not bring any change in the monetary policy. Economic activities have moderated since the December meeting, while resurgence in the coronavirus cases could hurt economic activities more seriously than previously expected. Yet, roll-out of more fiscal stimulus and positive vaccination progress...
Euro Reversed Initial Selloff after ECB, Turning the Corner?
Euro has surprisingly ended as the strongest one last week. While a rebound against Dollar was expected, the turnaround against commodity currency, in a risk-on week, was impressive. Though, as discussed below, the common currency still has a lot to prove. Sterling also overwhelmed New Zealand Dollar slightly and...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet on Higher Euro as ECB Shrugged Off its Strength
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 19 NET SHORT of USD Index futures +370 contracts to 14 277. Speculative long positions gained +1 492 contracts, and short positions increased +1 862 contracts. The greenback's correction proves to be short-lived. The ECB...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil Bets Trimmed Sharply on Price Correction
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 19, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -19 133 contracts to 508 584 for the week. Speculative long position slumped -27 482 contracts, while shorts fell -8 349 contracts. As we predicted in last week's...