Crude Oil Rallies, but Upside is Limited as Russia to Increase Output while Uncertainty to Recovery Still High
Crude oil prices rallied last week, with the front-month WTI and Brent contracts gaining +8.9% and 7.8% respectively. The market was thrilled by Saudi Arabia's voluntary output cut and increase in export prices. Stabilization in the pandemic also added optimism.However, producers such as Russia are likely to expand production...
Risk Appetite Sends Stocks and Oil Higher, Yen and Swiss Franc Weak
Risk-on sentiments continue in Asian session today with Nikkei hitting 30-year higher, while oil prices are also back at pre-pandemic level. Yen and Swiss Franc are currently the weakest one, together with Euro. On the other hand, commodity currencies are leading the way up naturally. Dollar and Sterling are...
Dollar Rally Choked by Job Data, Spotlights Turn to Sterling and Aussie
Dollar was in a pole position to end as the strongest major currency. But disappointing non-farm payroll report gave dollar bulls a reality check as the greenback ended mixed, after late selloff. Australian and New Zealand Dollar have indeed closed as the best performers, followed by Sterling. Euro, Swiss...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Euro Shrank Sharply
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 2, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +111 contracts to 14 830. Speculative long positions gained +611 contracts, and short positions increased +722 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank -28...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil Broke Above Recent Narrow Range
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 2, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures dropped -5 438 contracts to 499 174 for the week. Speculative long position dropped -932 contracts, while shorts added +4 506 contracts. WTI crude oil price broke above recent...
Dollar Drops Broadly Following NFP Disappointment
Dollar drops broadly in early US session after much smaller than expected non-farm payroll job growth, even though unemployment dipped notably. Canadian Dollar is some what pressured today after larger than expected job losses. But Yen is the one following the greenback as second weakest. Australian Dollar and Euro...
Dollar Strong in Risk-On Markets, Non Farm Payrolls in Focus
Return of risk-on markets, after some solid economic data, pushed S&P 500 and NASDAQ to new record highs overnight. Yen and Swiss Franc trade broadly lower naturally but Euro was not far behind. Commodity currencies, while firm, are so far overwhelmed by Sterling and Dollar. In particular, the greenback...
BOE Upbeat about Inflation Outlook. Negative Rate Seems Unlikely although It is Not Ruled Out
As expected, BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. Meanwhile, the QE program also remains at 875B pound worth of government bonds, and 20B pound of corporate debt. The economic projections reveal that policymakers are more optimistic about inflation projecting it to reach the +2% target this year....
Sterling Surges in Acceleration after BoE, Euro Dives
Sterling jumps sharply after BoE indicated that it didn't want to send a signal to the market on adopting negative rates. Dollar is also firm on overall mixed market sentiments. Thanks to the selloff against both the Pound and the greenback, Euro is currently the worst performing one for...
Sterling Softens ahead of BoE, Dollar Maintains Gains
Sterling softens notably today as focus turns to BoE rate decision, and more importantly the stance regarding negative interest rates. Euro and Swiss Franc remain generally weak too. New Zealand and Canadian Dollars are paring some gains as risk markets turned mixed again. But Aussie is somewhat bucking the...
US Crude Oil and Distillate Inventory Dropped while Gasoline Gained Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +2.92 mmb to 1324.8 mmb in the week ended January 29. Crude oil inventory slipped -0.99 mmb (consensus: +0.45 mmb) to 475.66 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Euro Stays Weak Despite Better CPI, Dollar Shrugs Strong ADP Job Growth
Economic data released today are largely ignored so far. Euro's weakness continues despite stronger than expected inflation reading. Swiss Franc and Sterling are also softening slightly. Dollar, on the other hand, struggles to extend gain after much stronger than expected ADP employment. New Zealand Dollar continues to trade as...
Kiwi Rises on Job Data, Loonie Firm on Oil Price, Euro and Franc Weak
Canadian and New Zealand Dollar are both in the driving seats in the markets this week. Return of risk appetite is providing the base for rally. Meanwhile, Kiwi is lifted by stronger than expected job data while Loonie follows oil prices higher. Aussie is lagging behind on RBA, however....
Euro Tumbles Through Support, Canadian Surges With Oil’s Upside Breakout
Canadian Dollar is currently trading as the strongest one for today, following the upside breakout in oil price. The resilient Sterling is following as second strongest, awaiting BoE to rule out negative interest rates later in the week. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is the worst performing, after...
RBA Extends Asset Purchases of AUD 100B Until September
RBA announced to extend the asset purchase program by an additional AUD100B as the current program ends in mid- April. Meanwhile, it has turned more upbeat about the global and domestic economic outlook, and upgraded GDP and employment forecasts.
RBA turns more upbeat over the global and domestic economic outlook....
Australian Dollar Softens after RBA Expands QE, Euro Pressing Key Support Again
Australian Dollar softens mildly after RBA expands asset purchases by another AUD 100B. Also, it pledges to keep interest rate unchanged at current level until at least 2024. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar are the relatively stronger ones. But for now, both are capped...
BOE Preview – Awaiting Updates on Negative Rate Policy and Economic Projections
There are several things to watch for this week’s BOE meeting: 1) updates on the review of negative interest rate; 2) adjustment to QE; 3) economic projections. All policy measures will stay unchanged this week with the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, and the size of the asset purchases...
Swiss in Broad Based Selloff While Silver Steals the Show
Swiss Franc's selloff is a major focus in the forex markets today, in particular, as it breaks through a key support level against Sterling. The development somewhat drags down the Euro too. The Pound and Dollar are currently the stronger ones while commodity currencies are mixed. Stock markets are...
RBA to Leave Policy Unchanged and Remain Cautious about Outlook Despite Recovery
The RBA will have its first meeting this year on Tuesday, followed by publication of the statement of monetary policy on Thursday. We expect all policy measures to stay unchanged this month. Policymakers could revise GDP forecast higher and the unemployment rate lower, given the better-than- expected economic data...
Sterling Firm as Markets Await BoE, Asian Stocks Up
Asian markets open the week generally higher today, shrugging off the steep selloff in the US on Friday. Australian and New Zealand Dollar firm up mildly. But Sterling is so far the better one, as markets await BoE's affirmation on not using negative rates. Dollar, and Euro turn softer...