Crude Oil Rally Continues Despite Surprising Increase in US Inventory
After breaking above US$ 60/bbl, both crude oil benchmarks strengthened further despite surprising stockbuild in the US. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -13.81 mmb to 1284.77 mmb in the week ended February 19....
Yen Under Pressure as Swiss Franc Decline Slows a Bit
Selling focus appears to be turning to Yen as markets enter into US session. Swiss Franc remains weak but the decline is slowing slightly. Dollar and Euro are also soft, but both are supported by buying against Yen and Franc. On the other hand, commodity currencies remain the strongest...
RBNZ Upgraded Economic Forecasts, NZD Shot Higher
The RBNZ delivered a more upbeat statement at today meeting. While leaving the monetary policy measures unchanged and warned of the uneven economic recovery, the staff upgraded the economic projections significantly. Policymakers also introduced a new forward guidance which suggests that policy adjustment will only be made until the...
Fed Powell Cautioned about Uneven Recovery, Pledged to Maintain Stimulus
At the testimony before the Senate, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the economic recovery is uneven. He pledged to maintain sufficient support to achieving the employment and inflation targets.
Concerning economic developments, Powell refrained from sending a too optimistic message. He affirmed that the recovery highly depends on the...
CHF Selloff Intensifies, NZD Rises after RBNZ
New Zealand Dollar rises broadly today after RBNZ stood pat and didn't sound particularly concerned with the strong exchange rate. Though, Sterling remains the strongest one, continued to be supported by lockdown exit optimism. Other commodity currencies are also firm despite steady risk market sentiments. Yen and Swiss Franc...
Sterling Stronger on Reopening Optimism, Dollar Stabilizes
Sterling rises broadly today as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he's "hopeful" and "very optimistic " to end pandemic restrictions on June 21, based on the "one-way road to freedom" roadmap unveiled yesterday. Canadian Dollar is Dollar is following as second strongest, with a little help from oil...
Longer-Term Demand/Supply Outlook Remains Supportive of Copper Strength
Breaching the US9000/tonne benchmark, LME copper price skyrocketed to the highest level since 2011. The recent rally in copper price has been driven by hopes of stronger demand as global economic recovery accelerates and concerns over supply tightness in the metal. While the demand/supply looks positive for the metal...
Dollar Soft as Markets Await Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Oil Jumps
Dollar stays generally soft in Asian session today as markets await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony. The topics of inflation and surging treasury yields would be the focuses. For the former, Powell would likely talk down the significance of temporary rise in inflation, and focus on medium term outlook...
Swiss Franc Weak after Brief selloff, Yen and Dollar Also Soft
Swiss Franc was a focus in earlier European session as it suffered brief but deep selloff. Though, it somewhat found some footing quickly, even though it's still the second weakest for today so far. Yen is underperforming again on strong major global benchmark yields. Dollar and Canadian Dollar are...
NZD Surges on Rating Upgrade, Eyes on RBNZ This Week
New Zealand Dollar opens the week higher after ratings upgrade by S&P. The Kiwi would now look into RBNZ's comments on the economy and new economic projections featured later in that week. Elsewhere, overall risk-on sentiments continue to support commodity currencies and Sterling. On the other hand, Yen and...
RBNZ Preview – Policymakers to Sound Less Dovish with Yields and NZD Strengthened
We expect the RBNZ to deliver a less dovish message in the upcoming meeting. Economic data released since the November meeting have been encouraging, with the price level and the job market on track to reach the target. These should lead to upgrades in the economic projections. Financial conditions...
Aussie Surged With Industrial Metal Prices, More Upside in Favor
Stocks markets took a breather last week while focus turned to surging industrial metal prices and treasury yields. Strength in metals was seen more about supply shortage than recovery in demand. That somewhat also reinforced reflation trades. US 10-year yield was back above 1.3%, German 10-year bund yield at...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Platinum Rallied to 6-Year High on Strong Demand Expectations
Precious metals were mixed last week. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 16, gold futures’ NET LENGTH slumped -16 438 contracts to 234 969 while silver futures’ NET LENGTH added +281 contracts to 49 824. For PGMs, NET LENGTH of Nymex platinum...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Net Short Gained Slightly as Risk Appetite Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 16, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -412 contracts to 14 287. Speculative long positions slipped -97 contracts while shorts were up +315 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures dropped -216...
Australian Dollar Skyrockets on Surging Metal, Markets Cheer PMIs
Australian Dollar overtakes Sterling as the strongest one for the week, as supported by return of risk-mode markets. In particular, industrial metal is having strong rally with copper trading up 2% at the time of writing. Sterling shrugs off poor retail sales but was supported by PMI and upbeat...
Sterling Stays Strong as Focus Turns to Retail Sales and PMIs
Sterling continues to trade as the strongest one for the week, as focus turns to UK retail sales and PMIs. Upside surprises there could give the Pound another lift. Australian Dollar is keeping itself close as second strongest for now. On the other hand, Yen and Swiss France are...
Extreme Weather in the US could Further Dampen Output and Inventory
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -15.05 mmb to 1298.58 mmb in the week ended February 12. Crude oil inventory sank -7.26 mmb (consensus: -2.43 mmb) to 461.76 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...
Dollar Dives after Jobless Claims, Sterling Powers Up
Dollar is back under some selling pressure, starting in European session, and intensifies after poor job data. Weakness in the greenback is dragging down Canadian Dollar as the second worst performing, while Yen follows as third. Sterling is once again leading the way higher, followed by Aussie and Kiwi....
Aussie Mildly Higher after Job Data, Oil Extends Up Trend
Australian Dollar strengthens mildly in Asian session today, as supported by another set of solid job data. But overall, trading in the forex markets is subdued. Dollar is taking a breather as FOMC minutes provided no special inspirations. The greenback is, nonetheless, staying as the strongest one for the...
Fed Cautiously Optimistic about Recovery with Fiscal Support. USD Upside Limited as Accommodative Policy Remains in Place
The FOMC minutes for the January meeting revealed that policymakers were cautiously optimistic over the economic outlook. Meanwhile, it also dampened hopes of tapering. US dollar's rebound has been driven by more upbeat economic data and rising yields. However, the Fed's pledge to maintain an ultra accommodative policy should...