BOJ’s Yield Curve Control Helps Prevent JPY Appreciation, but Not Effective in Boosting Inflation
In its minor tweak on the yield curve control operation, the BOJ has widened the trading band of 10-year JGB yield by +/- 25 bps (+/- 20 bps previously). The central bank introduced YCC in September 2016, in addition to keeping the policy rate at -0.1% and the QE...
Yen Mildly Higher While Nikkei Tumbles, SNB a Focus in the Week
Nikkei trades sharply lower today as selloff continues after BoJ decide to exclude Nikkei-linked ETF from its purchases. Though, Topix is also trading down deeply. The Japanese markets are weighed down by news that a fire-damaged automotive semiconductor plant is going to take at least a month to restart....
Sentiments Turned Cautious on Yields and Infections, But Stay Positive
US treasury yield jumped last week after Fed gave way to more yield strength. In the background, there were some concerns over resurgence of coronavirus infections in some countries like France, Brazil and India. There was also risk of slower than originally expected vaccine rollouts. Tensions between US China...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Risk Currencies Trimmed
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 16, USD drifted to NET LENGTH of 14 724 contracts to 5 837. Speculative long positions gained +2 816 contracts while shorts slumped -11 908 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Profit Taking on Crude Oil Trades amidst Rising Yields
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 16, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -11 996 contracts to 525 442 for the week. Speculative long position plunged -12 000 contracts, while shorts were down -4 contracts. We should expect to see more...
Dollar and Yen Firm as Investors Stay Cautious
Dollar is generally firmer as markets enter into US session. Futures point to a flat open, but investors are clearly on guard of selloff before the weekend. Cautiousness is keeping Yen afloat too, even though Swiss Franc is lagging behind. As for today, Sterling is the worst performing one,...
Yields Rise, Stocks and Oil Plunge, Yen Shrugs BoJ
Renewed surge in US treasury yields overnight sent stocks lower. Risk-off sentiments continued in Asian session general. Australian Dollar is currently the worst performing one for the day, weighed down further by weak retail sales data. Canadian Dollar is following as second weakest, as oil priced tumbled. Swiss Franc,...
BOE Voted Unanimously to Keep Bank Rate and QE Unchanged. Warned of Uncertain Outlook Despite Upbeat Data
The BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. It will also continue to buy up to 875B pound of UK government bonds and 20B pound of corporate debts. While cautioning that the economic outlook remained highly uncertain, policymakers acknowledged the recent upbeat data, smooth vaccination...
Sentiments Weighed Down by Unstoppable Yields, Dollar Recovers
Sentiments appear to be weighed down by the upstoppable rally in treasury yields again today. At the time of writing, US 10-year yield is trading above 1.75 handle while Germany 10-year bund yield is at -0.25. US futures point to lower open, with weakness seen particular in NASDAQ again....
Dollar Falls on Risk-On Sentiment after FOMC, Aussie Powers Up on Job Data
Dollar dropped broadly overnight as markets turned into mild risk-mode following FOMC rate decision. A better economic outlook was painted by the new economic projections. Yet, Fed is clear that it's not even considering tapering the asset purchases for now. DOW and S&P 500 rose to new record while...
FOMC Review – Fed Revised Economic Projections Significantly Higher, while Pledged to Keep QE Size Unchanged Until Actual Progress is Seen in Economy
The staff significantly upgraded economic projections. While the policy rate will unlikely change before 2024, the median dot plot reveals that more members are now projecting rate hikes in coming two years. As widely anticipated, the Fed left all monetary policy measures unchanged: The size of asset purchases stays...
US Refined Products Showed Surprising Stock-Builds
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +3.59 mmb to 1288.89 mmb in the week ended March 12. Crude oil inventory gained +2.4 mmb (consensus: +2.96 mmb,) to 500.8 mmb. Stockpile increased in 2 out...
Dollar Steady, Yields Impatient ahead of FOMC
The markets remain generally quiet today, awaiting FOMC rate decision. Sterling regains much of the ground lost earlier in the week. Canadian Dollar is also firm, in particular against other commodity currencies. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is paring some of yesterday's gains, while Aussie and Kiwi turn...
Dollar Holding in Range, FOMC Awaited
The markets continues to trade in non-committal way as traders await Fed's comments on treasury yields. Swiss Franc is currently the strongest one for the week, thanks to yesterday's rally. But there is no follow through buying so far. Canadian Dollar is following closely as the second strongest. Euro,...
BOE Preview – Response to Rising Yields in Focus
We expect BOE to vote 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. Meanwhile, the QE program will also stay at 875B pound worth of government bonds, and 20B pound of corporate debt. Despite contraction in the first quarter, policymakers should point to the post-pandemic recovery as driven...
Yen and Swiss Rebound, Sterling Decline Fades Quickly
There isn't really a clear direction in the currency markets today. Sterling's selloff in European session quickly faded. Focus is turning to Yen and Swiss Franc rebound in early US session. Weakness in treasury yield is a factor driving the changes. Japan 10-year JGB yield closed back blow 0.1%...
Sterling Dips Against Euro and Swiss, S&P 500 Hit New Record
Markets remain cautious overall. While DOW and S&P 500 hit new record highs overnight, the gains were just modest. Gold and WTI oil are also both stuck in tight range, awaiting breakout. In the currency markets, Sterling is apparently under some pressure from cross selling against other European majors....
Canadian Dollar Strong in Subdued Markets, Yen Weak
Trading is generally subdued in the markets today. European indices are stuck in very tight range while US futures point to slightly higher open. Both gold and oil are bounded in consolidative trading. Bitcoin was short to new record high but quickly reversed. In the currency markets, New Zealand...
China Economic Activities Expanded Significantly, Mainly Due to Low Base Effect
China's macroeconomic data for the first two months of this year have delivered a mixed message. While growth in industrial production (IP), retail sales and urban fixed asset investment (FAI) all exceeded 30% when compared with the same period of last year, this was driven by the exceptionally low...
FOMC Preview – Expect to See Upgrade in GDP Growth Projections
The focus of this week's FOMC meeting is how the Fed would respond to the rising Treasury yields and the rapid improvement in the economic conditions. We expect policymakers to upgrade the GDP growth forecasts and attribute rising yields to improvement economic confidence. Yet, the tone should remain cautious....