CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD Index Futures
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 4, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -691 contracts to 2 055. Speculative long positions dropped -1 836 contracts while shorts were down -1 145 contracts. Net longs could trim further in the coming...
Dollar Dives on Huge NFP Miss, European Majors Jump
Dollar dives sharply in early US session after huge employment data miss. Canadian Dollar is slightly weaker, also on job data disappointment. Euro and Swiss Franc are quick to jump on assaulting the greenback. But Yen is not too far behind, as stocks could be under some pressure after...
China’s Growth Momentum Accelerates Further in Second Quarter, as Shown in Latest PMI and Trade Data
The latest data suggests that China’s economy continues to improve in the second quarter. The Markit/Caixin services PMI increased to 56.3 in April, highest since December 2020. The reading also beat consensus of 54.2 and March’s 54.3. Separately, China's trade surplus tripled in April, compared with a month ago.
Markit/Caixin...
DOW Hit Record, Dollar Sold off, Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls
Return of risk-appetite pushed DOW to new record overnight while Asian markets also firm up. Dollar was under some selling pressure, but it's still kept in range against except versus Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. Focus will turn to non-farm payroll report from today. A strong set of data...
BOE Predicts Economy to Expand at Strongest Pace since WWII; Announces QE Tapering from this Month
At today's meeting, the BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at a record low of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the central bank voted 8-1 to keep the asset purchase program at 895B pound, of which 875B pound is government bonds. Policymakers also announced to slow the pace of...
Swiss Franc and Euro Rise in Mixed Market, Little Reaction to Jobless Claims and BoE
Swiss Franc and Euro jump in overall mixed markets. There were little reaction to better than expected job data from the US. BoE's slowing of asset purchases, and surprising voting prompted brief rally in the Pound, but there is no follow through momentum. Australian Dollar quickly pared back the...
Aussie Mildly Lower on Tensions with China, Sterling Steady ahead of BoE
Australian Dollar trades generally lower today, after China announced to "indefinitely" suspended all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. But the spike on Aussie was relatively shallow and short-lived. Traders are quick to remember that the tariffs by China on some Aussie products didn't had much material impacts...
Crude Oil Price Rose to 7-Week High before Retreat as Inventory Sharply Declined
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -5.58 mmb to 1279.94 mmb in the week ended April 30. Crude oil inventory slumped -7.99 mmb (consensus: -2.35 mmb) to 485.12 mmb. Stockpile declined in 2 out...
Canadian Dollar Higher With Commodity Currencies, Euro Weakens
Commodity currencies continue to trade as the stronger ones entering into US session. In particular, Canadian is helped by extended rally in oil prices. New Zealand Dollar continues to receive support from better than expected job data. Overall sentiments are positive with European stocks staging a rebound, while US...
Kiwi Rebounds on Strong Job Data, Dollar and Yen Soften
Trading continues to be relatively subdued in the forex markets. US Treasury Janet Yellen's comments prompted selloff in stocks overnight. But reactions in currencies were just mild, with most pairs and crosses range bound. Strong job data from New Zealand is giving the Kiwi a lift, while Aussie is...
BOE Preview: Economic Forecasts to be Upgraded, while QE Tapering to Begin in August
At the upcoming BOE meeting, we expect policymakers to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. They would also continue to buy up to 875B pound of UK government bonds and 20B pound of corporate debts. The focus would be on the updated economic projections and...
Dollar and Yen Extending Consolidations, Trading Mildly Higher
Dollar and Yen rebound notably today as consolidative trading continues, with help from mixed sentiments. European indices are mixed while US futures point to lower open. Major global trading yields are trading lower, with US 10-year yield below 1.6 handle. New Zealand Dollar is leading Australian Dollar lower, followed...
RBA Keeps Policy Intact but Signals Amendments in July
The RBA left all monetary policy measures unchanged in May and reiterated that a rate hike would "unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest". However, the central bank upgraded economic projections and signaled that some amendments would be made on yield curve control (YCC) and QE in July.
Economic...
Australian Dollar Steady after RBA, Dollar Firmer in Consolidations
The forex markets are staying in consolidative mode this week so far. Aussie is steady in tight range after RBA stood pat as widely expected, even though GDP forecast was upgraded. Dollar is recovering again as the retreat overnight didn't last long. Canadian Dollar and Yen also trade with...
Markets Back in Risk on Mode, Dollar Softens Mildly
Markets seem to be back in mild risk on mode in Europe, shrugging off the selloff in Asia. US futures also point to higher open, as the record run could resume this week. The currency markets are relatively mixed. Yen is stabilizing into US session after earlier selloff. Dollar...
RBA Preview: Upgrading Economic Assessment while Pledging to Expand QE Purchases
While the RBA is likely to leave all monetary policy measures unchanged at this week’s meeting, the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (due May 7) would be closely watched. We expect policymakers to upgrade economic assessments moderately and pledge to monitor rising home prices.
Economic developments have generally improved since...
Yen Selloff Continues Despite Risk Aversion in Asia
The forex markets are relatively quiet in Asia, with Japan and China on holiday. Main theme is extended selloff in the Japanese Yen despite steep decline in Hong Kong and Singapore stocks. Aussie and Kiwi are the mildly firmer ones while Swiss Franc is softer. Also, a major talking...
Canadian Dollar Rally to Continue after a Strong Week, But Medium Term Strength Uncertain
Canadian Dollar ended last week as the strongest ones on a couple of factors. With some near term resistance taken out, such rally will likely continue for the near term. Swiss Franc ended as the second strongest. While Dollar was pressured for most of the week, it staged a...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on US Dollar
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 27, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -772 contracts to 2 746. Speculative long positions slipped -855 contracts while shorts were down -83 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures added +159...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Crude Oil Price Trimmed as OPEC+ Sticks with Output Increase
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 27, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -10 272 contracts to 489 711 for the week. Speculative long position slipped -567 contracts, while shorts declined -9 705 contracts. OPEC+ has confirmed to increase output by...