Upside in Crude Oil Prices Limited as OPEC+ is Prone to Ramp Up Output
Oil output from OPEC-10 and the nine non-OPEC producers joined the “output-cut” deal increased to 34.43M bpd in April, up from 34.26M bpd a month ago. The total compliance level slipped -0.2 ppt to 111%. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut of 1M bpd continued to contribute significantly to overall compliance....
Dollar Recovers But Not Turning Around Yet, Sterling Firm
Dollar recovers broadly today even though Fed officials sung a chorus emphasizing patience in monetary policy. Canadian Dollar is also firm with help from rebound in oil prices. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is trading generally lower together with Kiwi. Nevertheless, for the week so far, Sterling remains...
Euro Up on Strong Economic Sentiment, Global Stocks in Deep Red
Tech led global equities selloff is a major theme today, spreading from Asia to Europe to the US. In the background, there seems to be heightened concerns on inflation over surging commodity prices. European indexes are all in deep red while NASDAQ future is down another -1.6%. The reactions...
Asian Stocks in Deep Selloff, But Yen and Dollar Remain Weak
While US stocks hit another record high overnight, the path reversed with the three major indexes closing lower, with particular heavy selling in NASDAQ. Bearish sentiment continues in Asia session today, with Nikkei and Hong Kong HSI in deep red. Reactions in currency markets are mild, however, with commodity...
Sterling Extends Rally, Yen Diving Continues, Euro Down on ECB Comments
Sterling rises strongly today, and overpowers Australia and New Zealand Dollar. On the other hand, Yen's selloff continues while Dollar is following closely behind. Despite strong investor confidence data, Euro is indeed under heavy selling pressure against the Pound and Aussie. Comments from ECB chief economist Philip Lane suggests...
Copper Price Soars to New Record. Supply is Unlikely to Keep Pace with Demand as Major Economies Shift to Green Energy
The recent rally in copper price has been driven by potential supply deficit in coming years. Stimulus measures rolled by major economies, such as the US, the UK and China, have put strong focus on green energy. Developments of which are expected to significantly raise demand for copper. Meanwhile,...
Yen Broadly Lower, Sterling Rises, as a Relatively Light Week Starts
Dollar stabilizes mildly as another week starts, as selling focus temporarily turns to Yen. Both are weak nonetheless and stay near term bearish as least. Meanwhile, Sterling is trading slightly stronger in Asian session with help from recovery in crosses against Euro and Swiss Franc. But commodity currencies, as...
Dollar Tumbled Broadly, Stocks Hit Record, as Data Affirmed Fed’s Patient Approach
Dollar dropped broadly last week and ended sharply lower, as the huge non-farm payroll miss gave a strong node to Fed's patient approach. Progress could only be consider substantial as seen in realized economic data, rather than projected outlook. It's right that Fed is not even in a position...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet on Higher Crude Oil Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 4, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +10 302 contracts to 500 013 for the week. Speculative long position gained +8 377 contracts, while shorts declined -1 925 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD Index Futures
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 4, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -691 contracts to 2 055. Speculative long positions dropped -1 836 contracts while shorts were down -1 145 contracts. Net longs could trim further in the coming...
Dollar Dives on Huge NFP Miss, European Majors Jump
Dollar dives sharply in early US session after huge employment data miss. Canadian Dollar is slightly weaker, also on job data disappointment. Euro and Swiss Franc are quick to jump on assaulting the greenback. But Yen is not too far behind, as stocks could be under some pressure after...
China’s Growth Momentum Accelerates Further in Second Quarter, as Shown in Latest PMI and Trade Data
The latest data suggests that China’s economy continues to improve in the second quarter. The Markit/Caixin services PMI increased to 56.3 in April, highest since December 2020. The reading also beat consensus of 54.2 and March’s 54.3. Separately, China's trade surplus tripled in April, compared with a month ago.
Markit/Caixin...
DOW Hit Record, Dollar Sold off, Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls
Return of risk-appetite pushed DOW to new record overnight while Asian markets also firm up. Dollar was under some selling pressure, but it's still kept in range against except versus Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. Focus will turn to non-farm payroll report from today. A strong set of data...
BOE Predicts Economy to Expand at Strongest Pace since WWII; Announces QE Tapering from this Month
At today's meeting, the BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at a record low of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the central bank voted 8-1 to keep the asset purchase program at 895B pound, of which 875B pound is government bonds. Policymakers also announced to slow the pace of...
Swiss Franc and Euro Rise in Mixed Market, Little Reaction to Jobless Claims and BoE
Swiss Franc and Euro jump in overall mixed markets. There were little reaction to better than expected job data from the US. BoE's slowing of asset purchases, and surprising voting prompted brief rally in the Pound, but there is no follow through momentum. Australian Dollar quickly pared back the...
Aussie Mildly Lower on Tensions with China, Sterling Steady ahead of BoE
Australian Dollar trades generally lower today, after China announced to "indefinitely" suspended all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. But the spike on Aussie was relatively shallow and short-lived. Traders are quick to remember that the tariffs by China on some Aussie products didn't had much material impacts...
Crude Oil Price Rose to 7-Week High before Retreat as Inventory Sharply Declined
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -5.58 mmb to 1279.94 mmb in the week ended April 30. Crude oil inventory slumped -7.99 mmb (consensus: -2.35 mmb) to 485.12 mmb. Stockpile declined in 2 out...
Canadian Dollar Higher With Commodity Currencies, Euro Weakens
Commodity currencies continue to trade as the stronger ones entering into US session. In particular, Canadian is helped by extended rally in oil prices. New Zealand Dollar continues to receive support from better than expected job data. Overall sentiments are positive with European stocks staging a rebound, while US...
Kiwi Rebounds on Strong Job Data, Dollar and Yen Soften
Trading continues to be relatively subdued in the forex markets. US Treasury Janet Yellen's comments prompted selloff in stocks overnight. But reactions in currencies were just mild, with most pairs and crosses range bound. Strong job data from New Zealand is giving the Kiwi a lift, while Aussie is...
BOE Preview: Economic Forecasts to be Upgraded, while QE Tapering to Begin in August
At the upcoming BOE meeting, we expect policymakers to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. They would also continue to buy up to 875B pound of UK government bonds and 20B pound of corporate debts. The focus would be on the updated economic projections and...