Market Overview
Yen Leads Weekly Gains While France Stages Come Back
Yen continues to strengthen broadly today, maintaining its position as the best-performing currency of the week so far. Renewed speculation around a possible 50bps rate cut by the Fed has provided an extra lift to the Japanese currency. Additionally, renewed weakness in US and European benchmark yields further supports...
Fed’s Rate-Cut Debate Intensifies, Dollar Tumbles Amid Renewed 50bps Speculation
Dollar fell sharply overnight as the probability of a 50bps rate cut by Fed next week increased significantly. According to fed fund futures, the odds of a half-point cut now sit at around 40%, a notable jump from just 14% the day before. Market participants had widely assumed that...
Euro Recovers Ground as ECB Cuts Rates; Gold Surges to Record High
Euro made a modest recovery following ECB's decision to cut deposit rate by 25bps, a move widely anticipated by the markets. The rate cut, decided unanimously, brings the deposit rate to 3.75%. During her post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde provided no surprise, reiterating the central bank’s commitment...
Impressive Stock Reversal after CPI Setback, Eyes Now on ECB Rate Cut
The stronger-than-anticipated core inflation data initially sent shockwaves through US equities overnight, sparking a deep sell-off. However, tech stocks led a remarkable recovery, with all major indexes finishing in green. Notably, S&P 500 posted a remarkable reversal, ending the day up more than 1% after having fallen over -1%...
Dollar Rallies as Core CPI Data Dims Hopes for Larger Fed Rate Cut
Dollar rises slightly across the board during early US session following release of key inflation data, which largely ruled out the possibility of 50bps rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. While headline inflation in the US saw sharper-than-expected decline, falling to 2.6% year-on-year, core CPI remained...
Dollar Weakens as Treasury Yields Slip, Market Awaits US CPI for Clarity on Fed’s Next Move
Dollar softened across the board in today's Asian session, dragged down by extended in US Treasury yields. Investors appear to be setting aside the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, focusing instead on the highly anticipated US CPI report, which might hopefully provide clearer direction on...
Sterling Briefly Lifted by UK Jobs Data, But Forex Markets Remain Subdued
Trading in the forex markets remained relatively subdued today, with limited momentum across major pairs. Sterling saw a brief uptick following robust UK employment data, but the rally quickly lost steam. The data did little to alter expectations that BoE will likely keep rates unchanged next week and wait...
UK Employment Data Takes Center Stage Amid Market Caution
The forex markets have remained largely subdued in today's Asian session, with most major currency pairs moving within a narrow range from yesterday. Investor sentiment stabilized overnight, with major US stock indexes closing higher. However, caution is still the prevailing mood as traders await tomorrow's US CPI data, which...
Euro Pressured by Weak Investor Confidence Sentiment, Dollar Edges Higher
Dollar strengthened modestly in today's quiet trading as market participants continued to scale back expectations for a more aggressive 50bps rate cut by Fed this month. However, the greenback's momentum remains modest as it awaits a crucial test from the upcoming US CPI data this week. Stabilizing risk sentiment...
Forex Unmoved by Asian Selloff, Traders Cautious Ahead of US CPI, UK Data, and ECB Rate Cut
Asian markets started the week on a weak note, with sharp declines following the broader selloff in US markets after last week’s non-farm payroll report. Adding to the bearish mood was weaker-than-expected inflation data from China, which dampened sentiment further. However, the reaction in the forex market has been...
Market Jitters Rise as Indecisive Fed Outlook Sparks Risk Aversion Across Assets
Investors expressed clear dissatisfaction with last week's US non-farm payroll report, not much due to a miss in job growth expectations, but data left the size of the upcoming Fed rate cut unsettled, raising fears that Fed's indecisive stance could worsen the already fragile economic outlook. In response, US...
NFP Viewed as Dovish but Not Disastrous, Dollar Declines
The August US non-farm payroll report has been interpreted as largely dovish by the markets. Job growth showed clear signs of slowing, but the slight decrease in the unemployment rate has helped ease immediate recession fears. As a result, market expectations for a 50 bps rate cut by Fed...
Markets Brace for NFP Impact as Yen Rally Gains Momentum
The financial markets are in a state of heightened anticipation as the much-awaited US non-farm payroll report is set to release today. This key data set will be critical in assessing whether the US economy is veering towards a recession, following the jump in the unemployment rate in July....
Weak ADP Fails to Spark Sustained Dollar Selloff, Gold Approaches Record
Dollar bears attempted to push the greenback lower following the release of much weaker-than-expected ADP employment data, but the downward momentum lacked conviction. Traders remain cautious, given that ADP data has not consistently aligned with non-farm payrolls, leaving room for surprises when the NFP is released tomorrow. Furthermore, today's...
Weak JOLTS Data Hits Dollar, But Stock Investors Hold Their Bets
Dollar weakened broadly overnight after the latest JOLTS report showed significant drop in job openings, hitting the lowest level since January 2021. Economists are increasingly worried that the US labor market is cooling not just to pre-pandemic levels but potentially beyond. Such outlook could raising the possibility that the...
Cautious Sentiment Limits Market Moves Despite Risk Aversion
Risk aversion continues to dominate the global financial markets today, although the weakness in US futures has been relatively contained. While some volatility could arise from the US JOLTS labor market data, traders would largely be holding off for tomorrow's ISM services data and Friday’s non-farm payroll report. As...
Markets Shaken by US Recession Fears, BoC Rate Cut Awaited
Risk aversion swept across US markets overnight, with the selloff extending into Asian trading, driven by renewed fears of a recession. Weak US manufacturing data brought economic concerns back into focus, leading to a sharp 600-point drop in DOW and a more than 3.2% plunge in NASDAQ. The negative...
Risk-Off Sentiment Grips Markets Ahead of Key US Data Release
Yen staged a notable rebound today, joined by Dollar and Swiss Franc. In contrast, Australian Dollar is leading losses among commodity currencies. Risk-off mood appears to be taking hold, which is also evident in US futures, which point to a lower open as American markets return from the Labor...
Dollar Firm Ahead of ISM Manufacturing; Swiss GDP and CPI Also in Spotlight
Dollar is trading with a slightly firm tone this week, though overall forex market activity has been relatively subdued. It's worth noting that last month's sharp selloff in US stocks was actually started with disappointing ISM manufacturing data, which was then exacerbated by the non-farm payrolls report. Given this...
Yen Slide Intensifies, More Downside Likely Ahead
In relatively quiet market environment, Japanese Yen is coming under increasing pressure, with notable selloff driven by rising benchmark yields in the US and Europe. With major European stock indexes largely flat and the US and Canadian markets closed for a holiday, the Yen's decline has gained momentum. Several...