Market Overview
Poor US ADP and UK PMI Services Ignored, Risk Appetite Stays Strong
Risk appetite are generally firm globally today and it's best reflected in Germany 10-year yield, which turns positive for the time in more than a week. It's a rather clear indcation of a positive turn in overall sentiments. There is some optimism on US-China trade negotiations, which resume in...
Trade Talk Optimism and Chinese Service Data Lift Sentiments, Yen Pressured
Yen is back under pressure again today as Asian stock markets extend this week's rally. Stronger than expected Chinese services data is lifting sentiments. Meanwhile, there is somewhat some optimism on US-China trade negotiations, which is restarting in Washington today. International organizations continued to give warnings on global slowdown,...
Dollar Trading Higher Despite Durable Miss, Sterling Soft in Established Range
Dollar trades generally higher today even though upside momentum is capped by weaker than expected durable goods report. Economic data released this week are so far mixed. But at least, they don't point to heightened recession risk. While long treasury yields retreat mildly today, they're held well above last...
Australian Dollar Tumbles as RBA Signals It’s Ready to Move
Australian Dollar trading broadly lower today after RBA kept interest rate unchanged. While there was no clear dovish shift, the statement suggests that RBA is starting to get ready for a move. Weakness in Aussie takes New Zealand Dollar lower too. Sterling is the third weakest so far after...
US Retail Sales Disappointment Raises Doubts on Optimism from Chinese Data
Global markets are generally in risk-on mode today as recession fears eased mildly after improvement in Chinese manufacturing data. While sentiments remain generally positive in early US session, there is a slight bit of cautiousness after disappointment retail sales from he US. Headline sales dropped -0.2% mom in February,...
China Manufacturing PMIs Back in Expansion, Asian Stocks and Australian Dollar Lifted
Stock markets staged a strong rally in Asian session as lifted by better than expected manufacturing data from China. Both official and Caixin PMI manufactured climbed back into expansionary region, suggests that the worst could be over. Australian Dollar jumps broadly following generally positive risk sentiments, followed by New...
Risk Aversion to Come Back in Q2 as Stocks and Yields Recouple
Intensifying recession fear was the main theme in the markets in March, alongside never-ending Brexit and trade tensions. With downside risks to growth starting to materialize, major global central banks started their dovish turns. Most notably, Fed now forecasts no rate hike this year. ECB will keep interest rates...
Canadian Dollar Surges on GDP Surprise and Oil Rally, Sterling Recovers ahead of Brexit Vote
Canadian Dollar jumps sharply in early US session after stronger than expected GDP data. At least, the three month-rolling average remained in expansion despite the contraction in December and November. Additionally, WTI crude oil surged through recent resistance to resume larger up trend to as high as 60.72. For...
Yen Softer as Stocks & Yields Rebound, Pounds Awaits Another Brexit Vote
Yen is under some mild selling pressure today as China stocks lead Asian markets higher. While US 10-year yield failed to sustain above 2.4 handle overnight, it looks like recent decline has stabilized some what. And some more recovery in yield could be seen before quarter end. US-China trade...
Dollar Higher as Treasury Yields Attempting Rebound, Sterling Stays Weak on Brexit
Dollar rises broadly in early US session with help from rebound in treasury yields. 10-year yield is now trying to regain 2.4 handle. Poor Q4 GDP is ignored while traders could be hopeful on some progress in US-China trade talks in Beijing. The development drags down the Japanese to...
Brexit Stalemate Continues, US-China Trade Talks Resume, Euro Vulnerable
The forex markets are relatively quiet as quarter end approaches. Sterling remains stuck in range as Brexit stalemate continues. The UK Parliament continued to tell the world what they don't want regarding Brexit, but not they really want. Meanwhile, US-China trade talks are resuming in Beijing today. There are...
Sterling Higher ahead of Brexit Indicative Votes, Yen Higher as Treasury Yields Extend Slump
Indicative votes on Brexit alternatives in the UK House of Commons will catch most attention ahead. Debate is due to start by 1500GMT. We'll see what alternative Brexit path could gain majority in the Parliament. House of Commons Speaker John Bercow will select which of the proposals will be...
Selloff in New Zealand and Australian Dollar Dominates on Rate Cuts Bets
Selloff in New Zealand and Australian Dollar is the main theme in Asian session today. Kiwi plummets after RBNZ stands pat and indicates that the next move is a cut. After that, a full RBZN cut in priced in November but there are speculations on as early as a...
Yen Lower as CAC Leads European Stocks Higher, Sterling Rises on Revived Brexit Hope
The forex markets are staying in consolidative mode today. Sterling rises notably as some Brexiteers are finally agreeing that Prime Minister Theresa May's deal is better than no Brexit. At least, there is a chance for future governments to adjust the relationship with EU further. But in any case,...
Sterling Range Bound after Parliament Took Control on Brexit, Votes on Alternatives Next
The forex markets are relatively mixed this week, in particular Sterling. Pound is staying inside familiar range even though the Parliament finally seized control over Brexit from the government. Focus will turn to Wednesday's indicative votes but it's uncertain whether the government will follow the results. Prime Minister May...
Sentiments Stabilized after German Confidence Data, Brexit to Take Spotlight Again
Market sentiments generally stabilized today after initial selloff in Asia. While major European indices are still in red, losses are so far very limited. German 10-year bund yield even managed to turn positive briefly. Better than expected German Ifo Business Climate gave sentiment a mild lift. Yet, the picture...
Risk Aversion Continues With Focus on German Ifo and Brexit
Risk aversion dominates in the Asian markets today as recession fears spread. But the currency markets are steady though. Major pairs and crosses are bounded inside Friday's range at the time of writing, with mild weakest in Sterling and Swiss Franc. After last week's poor Germany PMI manufacturing, investors...
Sentiments Turned Very Fragile as Recession Fears Intensified
After the much more dovish than expected Fed economic projections and shockingly poor Eurozone manufacturing data, it looks like major world economies are at the brink recessions. German 10-year bund yield turned negative for the first time since 2016, and it was as high as 0.12 during the week....
Euro Dives as German Data Prompts Recession Fear, 10-Year Bund Yield Turned Negative
Fears of global recession intensify after shockingly poor German manufacturing data. Major European indices are all trading in red while DOW is down more than 100 pts at initial trading. More importantly, German 10-year bund yield turns negative for the first time since 2016. The most accurate indicator of...
Sterling Paring Losses as Brexit Cliff Edge Delayed for Two Weeks
After some roller coaster rides, Sterling is trading broadly higher for today after EU approved a short Brexit extension for UK. But overall, the Pound remains the weakest one for the week. Delaying the "cliff edge" by two weeks is just giving the economy a breather. The problem is...