Yen gains broadly on risk aversion as the drama of US president Donald Trump’s immigration ban continued. DJIA closed down -122.65 pts, or -0.61%, at 19971.13 overnight, below 20000 handle. S&P 500 lost -13.79 pts, or -0.6%, to close at 2280.90. NASDAQ dropped -47.07 pts, or -0.83%, to end at 5613.71. Nikkei follows and is trading down -1.7% at the time of writing. Treasury yields, on the other hand, was steady, with 10 year yield closed at 2.482, up 0.002. Dollar struggled to find a clear direction but weakened mildly, except versus Sterling. The dollar index hit as high as 101.02 yesterday but failed to sustain above 55 day EMA, and is now back at 100.35. In other markets, WTI crude oil stays in recent range and hovers around 52.50. Gold is trying to regain 1200 as consolidation extends.
BoJ left monetary policies unchanged as widely expected. Short term interest rates was held at -0.10%. The target of annual asset purchase was kept at JPY 80T under the yield curve control framework. The central bank warned in the quarterly forecast report that "risks to both economic activity and prices are skewed to the downside". While it noted that "The momentum for achieving our 2 percent inflation target is maintained", BoJ also sounded cautious and said it "lacks strength". BoJ expects inflation to hit 2% target by around March 2019, unchanged from November projections.
A bunch of data is also released from Japan today. Household spending dropped -0.3% mom in December, above expectation of -0.8% yoy. Industrial production rose 0.5% mom in December, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.1% in December. Housing starts rose 3.9% yoy in December, below expectation of 7.4% yoy. Also from Asia Pacific, Australia NAB business confidence was unchanged at 6 in December.
Elsewhere, UK Gfk consumer confidence rose to -5 in January. French GDP rose 0.4% in Q4, in line with consensus. Germany will release retail sales and unemployment in European session. Eurozone will release unemployment rate, GDP and CPI flash. UK will release mortgage approvals and M4. Later in the day, Canada will release GDP, IPPI and RMPI. US will release employment cost index, S&P Case-Shiller house price, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.50; (P) 114.94; (R1) 115.48; More…
USD/JPY’s recovery was limited well below 115.61 minor resistance and reversed. Nonetheless, it’s staying inside range of 112.51/115.61 and intraday bias remains neutral. The choppy decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. Break of 115.61 resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance. On the downside, below 112.51 will extend such decline but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.
Economic Indicators Update
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPY | BOJ Monetary Policy Statement | |||||
| 23:30 | JPY | Jobless Rate Dec | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% | |
| 23:30 | JPY | Household Spending Y/Y Dec | -0.30% | -0.90% | -1.50% | |
| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Dec P | 0.50% | 0.30% | 1.50% | |
| 0:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence Jan | -5 | -8 | -7 | |
| 0:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Dec | 6 | 5 | 6 | |
| 5:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Dec | 3.90% | 8.40% | 6.70% | |
| 6:30 | EUR | French GDP Q/Q Q4 A | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.20% | |
| 7:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales M/M Dec | 0.60% | -1.80% | ||
| 8:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change Jan | -5K | -17K | ||
| 8:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Rate Jan | 6.00% | 6.00% | ||
| 9:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Dec | 69K | 68K | ||
| 9:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Dec | 0.30% | 0.40% | ||
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec | 9.80% | 9.80% | ||
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 A | 0.40% | 0.30% | ||
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jan | 1.50% | 1.10% | ||
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jan A | 0.90% | 0.90% | ||
| 13:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Nov | 0.30% | -0.30% | ||
| 13:30 | CAD | Industrial Product Price M/M Dec | 0.60% | 0.30% | ||
| 13:30 | CAD | Raw Materials Price Index M/M Dec | 2.80% | -2.00% | ||
| 13:30 | USD | Employment Cost Index Q4 | 0.60% | 0.60% | ||
| 14:00 | USD | S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Nov | 5.00% | 5.10% | ||
| 14:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Jan | 55 | 54.6 | ||
| 15:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence Jan | 112.9 | 113.7 |
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