US indices closed at new record highs again as led by defense and energy sectors. In particular, WTI crude oil surged to as high as 54.68 and is showing sign of range breakout. That helped lift DJIA up 118.95 or 0.58% to close at 20743.00. S&P 500 gained 14.22 pts or 0.60% to close at 2365.38. NASDAQ also rose 27.37 pts or 0.47% to close at 5865.95. Dollar index was lifted by hawkish comments from Fed officials and reached as high as 101.60. However, the index lost momentum ahead of 101.76 near term resistance. Strength in the greenback was limited by lackluster performance in treasury yields. 10 year yield hit as high as 2.461 but pared back nearly all gains to close at 2.427, just up 0.002. Range trading in treasury yield would likely limit momentum in the greenback. Market’s focus will turn to FOMC minutes while continue the day after day waiting for Donald Trump’s announcement on tax reforms and other fiscal policies.

FOMC minutes to be a non-event

The minutes of January 31 – February 1 FOMC meeting will catch most attention today. Some economists expected the minutes to show that policy markers were getting more comfortable on inflation outlook. That is, as the FOMC statement noted, "inflation will rise to 2 percent over the medium term." But other than that, the minutes could provide little new information. In particular, some FOMC members have openly noted that fiscal policies, due to the lack of details, were not taken into account in their decisions and projections. Today’s FOMC minutes release could turn out to be a non-event. Markets would probably have more reactions to comments from Fed governor Jerome Powell. Currently Fed fund futures are pricing in 22.1% chance of a March hike and 74.8% chance of a hike by June.

German Ifo a focus in European session

Elsewhere, Australia Westpac leading index rose 0.0% mom in January. Wage cost index rose 0.5% qoq in Q4 while construction work done dropped -0.2%. German Ifo business climate will be a focus in European session. UK will release Q4 GDP revision, Swiss to release ZEW expectations and Eurozone will release CPI final. Later in the day, Canada will release retail sales while US will release existing home sales.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3135; (R1) 1.3172; More…

USD/CAD’s recovery lost momentum ahead of 1.3211 resistance and retreated. The pair is still bounded in range of 1.2968/3211 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3211 resistance will argue that fall from 1.3598 has completed at 1.2968. And more importantly, rise from 1.2460 is still in progress. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3598 and above. On the downside, below 1.2968 will revive the case that rise from 1.2460 is completed and turn outlook bearish for this low. Overall, choppy rise from 1.2460 is still seen as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we’d look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

Economic Indicators Update