The late breach of 0.9956 minor support last week suggests that correction from 1.0056 is extending lower. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week deeper decline. We’d expect strong support from trend line (now at 0.9799) to contain downside to bring rebound. But, on the upside, break of 1.0056 is needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, more consolidation would be seen first even in case of rebound.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
