AUD/USD – 0.7489
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term down
Original strategy :
Bought at 0.7525, Target: 0.7680, Stop: 0.7465
Position: – Long at 0.7525
Target: – 0.7680
Stop: – 0.7465
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 0.7525, Target: 0.7680, Stop: 0.7465
Position: – Long at 0.7525
Target: – 0.7680
Stop:- 0.7465
As aussie has remained under pressure after recent selloff, marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall from there and bring rebound later, above 0.7550 would bring test of indicated resistance at 0.7588, break there would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed, bring rebound to 0.7625-30 and later towards resistance at 0.7680-85.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.7525. Below indicated support at 0.7465-70 would signal the fall from 0.7750 is still in progress for further weakness to 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750), however, oversold condition should limit downside to 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
