Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.65 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.30 %, Hang Seng gained 0.05 %, ASX 200 rallied 0.60 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1255 (-0.20 %), Silver at $17.97 (-1.00 %), WTI Oil at $52.40 (+0.30 %), Brent Oil at $55.38 (+0.25 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.39, UK 10-year yield at 1.08, German 10-year yield at 0.24
News & Data:
- Japanese Trade Balance BoP Adjusted (JPY) Feb: 1076.8B (exp 981.7B; prev -853.4B)
- Japanese BoP Current Account Balance (JPY) Feb: 2813.6B (exp 2615.6B; prev 65.5B)
- Australia Home Loans (MoM) Feb: -0.5% (exp -0.5%; prev 0.5%)
- PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.9042 (prev fix 6.8949 prev close 6.9010)
- BoJ Gov Kuroda: Will Maintain QE With Yield Curve Control for As Long as Needed to Achieve 2% Inflation in Stable Manner
- BoJ’s Kuroda: Will Continue Expanding Monetary Base Until Core CPI Stably Exceeds 2%
- Fed’s Bullard: Job Report Consistent With 2% Growth
- Bullard: Fed Has Been Predicting Slowdown in Jobs Growth
- Bullard: Think Inflation Going to Stay About Where It Is Now
- Bullard: US Economy Not as Strong as We’d Like
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 11K vs 8K short last week. Shorts increase by 3K
- GBP short 100K vs 104K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
- JPY short 46K vs 53K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
- CHF short 14K vs 16K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- CAD short 30K vs 28K short. Shorts increased by 2K
- AUD long 50K vs 53K long. Longs trimmed by 3K
- NZD short 15K vs 13K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
Markets Update:
Markets remained in risk-off mode overnight. Geopolitical tensions are weighing on sentiment, and safe havens are in demand. Euro started the new trading week at 1.0570 and managed to recover to 1.0590 later in the session. Resistance is seen at 1.0620, followed by 1.0650. GBP/USD traded in a 1.2365-85 range. Key support is seen in the area between 1.2350 and 1.2360. Should the currency pair break below it, a larger correction seems likely.
USD/JPY rallied from 111.00 to 111.60 in Asia, but ran out of momentum in the late Tokyo session. Resistance above 111.50 remains strong. Meanwhile, the Aussie Dollar extended losses and fell below 0.75. This suggests that a test of 0.74 will follow soon.
Upcoming Events:
- 09:00 GMT – Italian Industrial Production
- 09:30 GMT – Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence
- 13:15 GMT – Canadian Housing Starts
- 21:10 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, April 11th
- 02:30 GMT – Australian NAB Business Confidence
- 09:30 GMT – UK CPI
- 10:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Industrial Production
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 15:00 GMT – US JOLTs Job Openings
- 18:45 GMT – FOMC Member Kashkari speaks
Wednesday, April 12th
- 02:30 GMT – Chinese CPI
- 07:00 GMT – German WPI
- 09:30 GMT – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
- 09:30 GMT – UK Unemployment Rate
- 09:30 GMT – UK Claimant Count Change
- 09:30 GMT – UK Average Earnings Index
- 15:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Rate Decision
- 15:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Statement
- 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 16:15 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
Thursday, April 13th
- 02:30 GMT – Australian Employment Change
- 02:30 GMT – Australian Unemployment Rate
- 07:00 GMT – German CPI
- 07:45 GMT – French CPI
- 09:00 GMT – Italian CPI
- 13:30 GMT – US PPI
- 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 15:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday, April 14th
- 13:30 GMT – US CPI
- 13:30 GMT – US Retail Sales
